Yes. It will reach $3 someday and may come back to 30 cents again.
For example, someday Steem reached a peak of $3 and started to fall.
The question is what you want to do at $3.
If you want to sell at $3, you have to time powerdowm of Steem 13 weeks earlier, because it may reach $3 then come back to 30 cents in less than 13 weeks. Or, you somehow you figure out luckily that $3 is Steem's recent peak and start powerdown, then your average selling price is just $1. And, you missed the boat.
May be you became greedy again. You are thinking, all time high (ATH) at $8.5 is close, last time it reached $3 to $8.5 in a single day, therefore should wait. You waited a month and Steem crashed to 80 cents. You missed the golden opportunity and leave out the idea of powerdown. Steem comes back to 30 cents and rinse & repeat.
One of the misstep can be amalgamated with four weeks powerdown. You have at least one month in hand to sell. For example, Steem reached $3 and came back to $1.5 in a month. On average, you are able to sell Steem for $2.
Please vote for 4 weeks powerdown if you like the idea: https://steemproposals.com/proposals
Best scenario would be if Steem finds a floor between $1 and $3, swings between them. Then you may not want to powerdown all your Steem and sell. May be you only want to sell your income in Steem only. I have seen content creators in @steem.leo to sell LEO at any price and not powering down LEO. By doing that they are ensuring they sell LEO at a good average price (e.g. 0.2 Steem).
Can Steem reach a floor between $1 and $3? For example, BTC has reached (almost permanently) $1000 in January, 2017 and $3.2K in December, 2018. Current swing of BTC looks like a floor between $7-9K. Why not Steem can find a similar floor?
At $1 Steem's marketcap will be at $360M and it will rank above 30. And at $3, Steem will be a $1B coin and there are only 16 of them.
I strongly believe that if there is no established social media based blockchain right now. Then Steem is released with SMT as an ICO, it may quite receive $1B valuation right now with powerful marketing. Interestingly, marketing can still work but STINC or community (through @steem.dao) may have lacking of fund or interest.
Then why not Steem can receive $1B valuation or even $360M valuation right now. It is issue of supply and demand. There are not enough number of investors who want Steem or want to speculate on Steem. But there are many Steem sellers, some have bought it cheaper and some have earned it. The some earners are comfortable at selling 20 cents.
It simply means that Steem need more investors and curators than creators.
However, Steem may need quality content creators who may attract investors too.
But right now, probably content creators outnumbers investors.
How to get investors is a million dollar question.
We are waiting for the mercy of mega altcoin bull run which is mostly based on BTC's halving. It all means that we are at mercy of BTC's halving.
The alternative is BUIDL, but developments are not enough if people are not aware of it. Steem has already seen great sorts of developments but overall crypto populations are not aware yet. We can wait on network effect, which seems to be painstakingly slow in bear market or do aggressive marketing to bring in investors.
Disclaimer: This opinion is not a financial advice, it my personal perspective and opinion. Please seek professionals for financial decisions. This opinion is only for educational purpose.
Image sources: Most images are open sourced (e.g. Pixabay, Wikimedia etc.) with Creative common license. Some images are used with due courtesy to respected owners.
Thanks for reading.
@dtrade
Cryptominer , occasional trader and tech blogger since 2013
Posted via Steemleo
I think it’s impossible to cater to the peak price and 4 weeks off is still a lot. I think that I will not sell - I will invest another 3 years and wait for further development - I am not in a hurry.
I am a stubborn investor and, of course, not a trader. I do not like to sell, I like only to buy))
Posted via Steemleo
I am for the four week power down @dtrade and I definitely think STINC could do some marketing. I know it costs money to market but I think even minimal marketing could help.
Posted via Steemleo
Like the 4 week powerdown idea. I also don't think steem will ever see $3 again, in fact if it cracks $1 I will take that as best case scenario.
I really think it becomes more of a transactional coin and we see appreciation in the tribe coins and SMTs.
Hopefully!