Such a valuable post.
important to recognize (actually see) that an HBD increase is just a different neutral price for HIVE than all the indicators are telling our eyes. The internal market represents this neutral price, meaning in some ways its a futures market for the price feed 3.5 days in the future..... 🤔
the HIVE>HBD conversion is a(n overcollateralized) leveraged bet on this way of interpreting the internal market.
The "best" time to do HIVE>HBD conversion is after the HBD "pumps" but before the HIVEUSD pumps, because the part you can control of the profit is determined in that moment.