Does it really though?
I guess it would be pretty epic if it did and I got the day exactly right, but alas the chances of that happening are stunningly slim. However it's always fun to throw out a cold-reading from time to time just in case I'm right and can point back to it like I'm some kind of savant genius.
So why FEB 22?
Meh basically just because all my lines are converging there.
Denoted by the orange circle
Two trendlines, one support, and one resistance all come to a head around Feb 22nd.
Line 1: Short term downtrend.
The dashed-yellow descending channel is the current direction we find ourselves moving in. Luckily descending channels are wildly bullish for Bitcoin and almost never break to the downside. In fact I can't remember a time where that ever happened while I was doing analysis on Grandpa Coin. Downtrends in Bitcoin almost always reverse to the upside. This should make sense because Bitcoin is the best risk:reward asset the world has ever seen by quite a large margin. Short it for too long and you're guaranteed to get wrecked.
Line 2: DMA 100 support
The blue-arrow daily moving average line shows that the MA(100) has straightened into an ascending linear line for two months straight. My personal Bitcoin analysis values is the MA(100) at a much higher weight than any other metric. It's also a default line shown to all traders on many platforms including Binance, so sometimes the analysis can be a self-fulfilling prophecy in the short term. At this point the main thing we need to avoid is a death-cross between the MA(25) / MA(100). That would be a bit of a disaster, but it also can't happen when we trade above the line, which we have been doing this entire time during the easy-mode experience.
Line 3: Solid yellow trendline
This is a line that was forged back in the $58k crab using the MA(200) as an anchor. I wasn't sure if it was relevant when I first drew it but it's continued to prove itself over and over again. I'm honestly starting to think that this could be the line that we crash to after 2025 is over and the bear market ensues. I guess we'll see how realistic that theory is when the time comes. It goes up about $5000 every month which would imply the bottom of the next bear market would be around $200k if accurate. Maybe that's a pipedream, or maybe it's the perfect 80% retracement from a $1M BTC blowoff top. We won't know until we actually hit a top, because this sure as hell isn't one.
Line 4: Current red trendline $100k
The liquidity vortex at $100k has been quite the sight to behold. At this point anyone who wanted to sell at 6-figures has been given ample opportunity to do so (for two weeks straight) during the last consolidation. We continue to trade above and below this line is a very tight range ($92k-$108k). The longer we trade like this the easier it is to make some serious bank on leverage... which is why it's not going to last much longer.
Speaking of leverage...
The liquidation map paints a very clear picture. Idiot degenerate bulls keep getting headhunted over and over again while we chop sideways. This makes it easier to place serious bets outside of the liquidation range (my stop-loss is set to $88500). There's not a lot of money left to liquidate for the bulls, but short positions around all time highs keep getting bigger and bigger. As stated earlier, it's only a matter of time before these positions get wrecked, and it will happen quite fast. When it does I may throw in a quick short in order to account for the classic revenge trading that is sure to ensue. A responsible short at $111k looks like it would work well at least for a couple days.
Moon cycles
Bitcoin seems to be trading with the moon again. The last full moon was January 13th and sure enough that was the day that we nuked all the longs to $89k and then spiked right up to all time highs one week later. These moves are a very common occurrence with the moon cycles. Full moons are considered bullish and new moons are considered bearish. The next full moon is February 12th, and considering that the market has been really boring lately I'm somewhat expecting fireworks around that time. I will long any dips that come my way.
There are also trends such as this one that show how alts tend to do very well starting February of the bull market year. Of course this "analysis" only has two data-points so it's flimsy cope at best.
February is always a volatile and crazy month... and much like September and August, we already dumped pretty hard right at the start, demoralizing the entire industry. But as we all know number tends to not go up until a max-pain moment such as this one where BTC dipped a measly 8% while alts got curb stomped in a sea of 20%-40% panic selling.
Situations such as this make Bitcoin even easier to day-trade because alts are acting as a buffer to stop BTC from dipping too much. The same will also be true on the next leg up: at some point alts will start sucking liquidity out of BTC and do what they've always done in the bull market year.
DOMINANCE
Bitcoin has been absolutely crushing it for two years straight. This is why everyone should have a massive BTC allocation and slowly volatility trade it into their favorite networks over very long periods of time. However, almost nobody actually does that because we are all greedy goblins, after all.
That being said this step-ladder-to-heaven will implode sooner or later, just like they always do. We've all seen how a chart can slowly and steadily go up like this only to take the elevator down within a couple candle nukes. We had that false breakout recently that looked as though the breakdown had already occurred, but this was a complete psych and has left the majority of altcoiners fabulously demoralized... which is exactly where we want to be at the start of an alt-market.
Some are trying to say we need to hit 71% dominance before the breakdown to occur for the TA to match up to previous cycles... gonna go ahead and call bullshit on that one. I simply think we don't have enough time left for something like that to happen, but if we do end up getting that high you can be damn sure I'll make an irresponsible rotation out of BTC and into Hive and other choice projects... JK probably just Hive, we ball.
Bearish retracement
It's okay because that would be a good thing
$72k remains the ultimate support line for BTC. We could easily crash back down to this level if something absolutely crazy happened... of course I almost wish it would happen because I would be revenge trading like a madman at that level. Then again there's no telling how hard alts would bleed and it would feel like a doomsday scenario for many... even though that level is fully within bounds of a hyper-bullish cycle... it would just be very disappointing in the short-term.
I don't think this will happen because all of the evidence we receive points to this being the most easy-mode run we are ever going to get... peppered with the salty tears of pouty children. Buy more BTC if you're so overexposed to the other bullshit. It's not that hard. If you can't handle the volatility then just capitulate instead of doubling and tripling down on the losing position. We can see that the market at large has already done this a couple times.
Bear market starts now
A lot of people think this is the top and we are about to print a head and shoulders pattern. It's fully not, but if it was we'd certainly see a retracement in BTC down to something like $58k and slightly below for a good scare. Again... this is not happening. I give it less than a 1% chance. It is the fear of this happening that prevents it from happening. There's a lot of fear in the market right now; it's when everyone feels invincible that the plane is about to crash into the mountain.
BTC funding rate keeps flipping negative
Whenever this happens the market is in wildly bullish positioning. Imagine Bitcoin... an asset that just keeps going up forever. Now imagine getting paid to borrow USD and dump it into the best gambling asset ever created. That is what keeps happening right now. It's beyond bullish and the charts confirm it time and time again across the last decade.
Of course sometimes it can take weeks or even a couple months to break out of the crab and continue upwards. This is why so many traders get wrecked: they get impatient and start questioning the original plan because the price isn't moving in their favor fast enough for their taste. Mark my words: we will breakout of this crab to the upside once more. It's just unclear if it will take two weeks or two months to accomplish.
Conclusion
The market has been crabbing for long enough.
February is the month that we bust out of this $100k +/- $8k prison.
Volatility is coming.
Count on it.
Fun charts. I look at them with my brain and think things will be ok. The charts. They say we'll all be ok. The charts. Alt season.
number go up bruv
we all gonna make it bro
believe in something
we all gonna be rich, next party, my island or yours?
via Inbox
I'm going to hold you to all of that!
The sentiment right now is bear market levels.
good!
I think so too. I hear from Raoul Pal that the business cycle has only just bottomed and massive liquidity is pumped into the market by Europe and China.
So when the world market has adjusted to the new normal with trump and Elon musk, Bitcoin and the rest of crypto will likely get its explosive rally
In my experience Raoul Pal is nothing but a charlatan scammer but half of the things he says are indeed accurate.
Oh really? He is quite full of himself, but his global macro investor service is quite popular.
I do ignore his views on nft’s and other blockchains, but the general outlook for btc, ETH, sol it’s solid as far as I can tell.
There's a lot of uncertainties in the markets right now, definitely prepared for surprises.
That kind of great analysis, it's very important to understand the trends of the market before stepping into the it. BTC I have seen won't hit $100k this month of February. From my perspective.
BTC hit $100k three times this month.
Including today a couple hours ago.
Oh yes that sounds good, I meant to say, staying at 100k above. That's a kind of hit and run game. Well smart guys will this makes a lost of profit from the runs. I'm still expecting 70k within the next few months. For the holder to buy not now.
that could certainly happen
many will be very upset
I still remember few years BTC hit $15k deep from 40k down, sold at 30k after buying at 25k. Thinking I have gotten smoking profits. Lol
This monthly chart from binance is still predictable to down trend this month. Even though there are upward movement from last month.
based on....?
vibes?
50/50 up or down. 😏
only up
maybe the chart you're looking at is xrp
No, I lokk on your charts here.
Weird how all my bets have been profitable then.
I must be getting really lucky!
Nice for you.
But I think the world of BTC has changed since the big boys (BlackRock ...) are in the market. And Trump is a big uncertainty. He talks a lot, but what is really coming?
Trump literally doesn't have to do anything.
Doing nothing is a huge improvement based on the last administrations illegal actions.
Bitcoin doesn't care about Blackrock.
This time is not different.
Bring on that 72k BTC, come on baby,
come to mama .....
not gonna make it! 🤑
Why poop on my potential party!!!!!? A girl of the moon can dream you know! And, I'm just going by your prediction. :)
wagmi
excellent technical analysis. and some very pretty charts! 😉😎🤙
thanks for this explanation this is the second place I’ll see this February 21 thing. Looking forward to it
There will be a lot of uncertainties in the next weeks
This is a great analysis of the altseason every year
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!PIZZA
It will be a rollercoaster once the alt season begins