Calling it here.
60% dominance on the TradingView chart is the peak.
This thing is about to fall off a cliff just like it always does.
Alts are going to melt faces.
Prepare yourselves for glory.
Bitcoiners are wrong, as usual
You see a chart like this as a maximalist and you get complacent and wildly overconfident. Dominance has been going up for years, why would it stop now? Blackrock will send us to the moon! Nobody wants those shitcoins anymore. Blah blah blah blah blah this time is different.
Hm yeah it's not though. Stop talking.
The ascending wedge in crypto is wildly bearish and a violent breakdown should be expected unless there are extreme extenuating circumstances. Today we have the opposite: every indicator points to a flood of capital flowing into every asset, even the complete garbage. We won't get to take out the trash again until bear market (2026?)
Slowly rotating my Bitcoin into high-conviction projects.
Just like every other 4-year rotation most networks are going to outperform Bitcoin in 2025. Bitcoin had its time to shine, and now the casino will be kicking itself into high gear. As I still refuse to take memes seriously this leaves me investing in a handful of assets that actually have utility.
Besides Hive my main pick has been Rune and I've been happy with that so far. I'm also starting to dip my toes into AVAX because it's the only gamer network out there. One of these days I'll have to get around to seeing everything they have to offer. There are quite a few options and I've looked into it very sparingly. There are also a few other "solidarity" tokens I'm throwing a little money at.
- Maya: the L1 DEX that LEO is connected to.
- Dash: old school community forming an alliance with LEO.
- Zing: a Pokemon-style game being developed on Hive.
I'm also considering picking up a tiny MATIC (rebrand to POL) bag because Polymarket is getting tons of attention due to the accuracy of election results in real time. But at this point I'd rather just stick to as few plays as possible. Definitely not looking to "diversify" this time around. I want to be as consolidated as possible going forward, and with a lot of these networks I have zero loyalty to and will sell my entire bag in 2025 into BTC/HIVE/USD eventually.
TDS is a helluva drug.
Hm speaking of the election...
Yeah I'm not a fan of Trump. I think he's an absolute clown. So for my bags to get pumped and a rampaging bull market to get catalyzed on his election gives off mixed feels for sure. Of course Harris was a terrible option as well so I'm just beating a dead horse at this point. Best to focus on 2025; eye on the prize.
Hive
Lot's of cool stuff going down on Hive but morale is still complete gutter-trash. Hive tends to be the ultimate laggard token and then overnight it's pumped to absurd valuations followed by slow-bleeds. If I'm lucky my RUNE bag moons and Hive does nothing so I can make an easy rotation. If not I have harder decisions to make.
Make a plan and stick to it.
This is something that is surprisingly difficult to do. It's very easy to make a plan and abandon it the second we get what we want and the greed kicks in. But what if it goes up even more?!?!?! My plan is to make a large rotation back into Bitcoin before everything crashes into the mountain. Of course trying to guess when that will be is never an easy thing... but I'm fairly sure I don't have to be considering that for at least another six months... and hopefully more like a year. After all if the alt-market only lasted a few months that would be quite rude.
But what if Wall Street only buys Bitcoin?
What if the most degenerate degens just sit on responsible bets and stop being degens? Um... no? The Trump administration is about to rollback regulations across the board, which I'm sure will be an arguably bad thing in many situations, but I can 100% guarantee it will be just fine for crypto. Regulators haven't done us one single favor this entire time. I challenge anyone to find one example to the contrary.
Conclusion
The alt market has just started, but really won't move into high gear until Bitcoin gets above $100k and everyone is collectively losing their minds. Laser eyes till fiat dies, as they say. This time is not different. Stick to the plan. Don't fumble the bag on 2025. No one wants to be sidelined for another 4 years.
These calculations are hard as hell lol where to go, what to get. When to sell some to get a little profit. I guess if it were easy it wouldn’t be fun.
For me it's more of a feeling than anything else.
It's when I start to feel very generous and I'm giving crypto away without a care in the world.
No-coiners are asking me if they should invest.
I'm taking no gains off the table because "even if I lose 50% no big deal; it might keep going up".
Luckily I think 2025 will be easier than 2021.
2021 was a gross disappointment I think 2025 will make up for it.
Just do what Alex Becker says. He's my favorite crypto influencer now. I'm going to blame him when I shamefully end up poorer after this bull market than before despite hitting home runs because I'm an idiot.
Hahaha never heard of him I’ll see what he is shilling.
Remind me over and over please.
LOL
I am writing myself notes now…
I'm so terrified that I am going to misplay this and be sitting on my hands again for another four years. I can't really imagine anything much worse personally than that right now.
I feel your anxiety, and I know this pain.
😅
Haha I know right.
Still it technically hasn't begun until we break lower than the channel.
Well even if I fumble, I’ve always fumbled by hodling too long and only my third cycle I’ll still be way up taking profits after we start crashing.
Do you think it’ll be harder to pick projects that can best bitcoin this time? I assume this time will be a more muted version of what we have seen before. Less projects that skyrocket, smaller % gains on btc, and a much tamer bear market.
What exciting things are happening on hive? From my limited perspective it kinda feels like Leo is carrying things, but I’m already in a Leo bubble at this point
Hive's biggest problems are liquidity and smart contracts.
We should have a solution soon.
We are going to have decentralized wrapped Bitcoin on chain that we can move around for $0 fee.
On top of LPs paired to this wrapped Bitcoin (BTC/HIVE BTC/HBD).
At a certain point simply being able to provide $0 fees is going to be huge as well.
People looking at Solana right now like "wow so cool only a couple cents for fees"
Yeah well what happens when it goes x1000 and now the fee is $20 and the network is constantly collapsing? Simply not scalable in the current form no matter how low the fee is today.
Strong disagree on that front.
This run is going to be stronger than 2021 in every way.
The diminishing returns theory is based on zero evidence.
This is something I discussed just recently.
The comparison to 2021 is going to trick most people into selling early.
What if the Wall Street degens ape into Hive? That'd be fun! But honestly bro, I hope they don't. Hive feels like home. With home, you always want slow sustained growth, not oil town boom n bust.
Gonna be boom and bust no matter what just like every cycle.
Which is unfortunate but there are no cryptocurrencies that have an elastic supply.
Is what it is.
It would be nice to get a more distributed supply.
How that happens is no easy feat.
I key in to this ascertion
AVAX and POL are two chains I've always liked: I have a little exsposure to both and it would cool to see them performing well in the next few monthes :)
Good luck with that strategy, still quite early to call an end to Bitcoin dominance but nice pumps in SOL and ETH.
Looking back four years dominance didn't peak until March when price was over $50k up from $10k. So I may indeed have jumped the gun a bit here. There's still a lot more wiggle room in that ascending channel so I am probably swinging early here but it won't matter much in the long run.
When Hive Moon?
yes
I have serious anxiety, about not booking profits this time, so I am writing down my plan to peel off 10% at 90k and proceed regularly from there.
I will still have btc should it keep going higher, but at least I will get some impressive gains on part of my stack.
My biggest fear is that I will listen to the “This time it’s different crowd”.
Every cycle brings some new big investor, and people say this new investor changes things.
Admittantly, Blackrock is huge, but everyone of them seemed huge at the time they showed up.
!PIZZA
$PIZZA slices delivered:
(5/10) @danzocal tipped @edicted