Well? We're WAITING!
Crypto is still very much in the will-it-or-wont-it phase of the market. Of course the answer is always 'yes' and the real question is 'wen'. For those who compulsively check the charts every day this can be an unnerving time. These moments come across all forms of gambling. Constantly breaking even is often perceived to be more boring and unbearable than actually losing money. Be careful what you wish for! Hold on to what you've got and be grateful for the opportunity. Mindset matters.
Bitcoin looking pretty damn good here.
I often ask myself how I'd be feeling if the price moved in one direction or the other. For example, if we dipped down to $65k I'd be very uncomfortable and bearish even though that's only a 4% dip. If we spiked above $72k I'd be bullish even though that's less than a 7% pump. In both of these situations I realize I should be doing the exact opposite of the feelings that pop up as a result of these moves. Buy low sell high. Sounds so easy and logical. It never is in the moment which is why it gets repeated over and over again.
Will we have a bullish summer?
Well May has ended and we were supposed to get a signal to that effect. And I suppose we kinda sort of did with that pamp from $56k to $72k, but honestly that's quite simply not good enough to even imply that we've broken out of the crab yet. At this point it seems as though we need these moving averages to act as a floor to springboard above that $72k cork that's been boxing us in for so long.
Tomorrow we have an interesting intercept between two major lines I've drawn at $72k. This may act as a magnet and I am somewhat expecting to seem some volatility tomorrow in one way or the other. I also like what I'm seeing in that descending triangles often prove to be bullish for Bitcoin (unlike other charts). Price is looking stable here which is exactly when it decides to make a big move. Of course "big" in this context is like 5% which could also be interpreted as a day ending in 'y' for those of us who have been around the block a few times. Crab crab crab.
September bad
I will always be perma-bearish on September as the odds seem to forever favor this sentiment. So basically no matter what the price is doing I'll need to be taking a little off the table if only to shove it all back in at the end of Q3. If we show strength in August I'll be slightly annoyed as August is the most unpredictable month in the calendar from what I've seen. Perhaps I'll just leverage an event like that into selling more, but either way the numbers I'm playing with a quite small compared to my overall stack size. This is honestly a very dangerous time to try to make any big moves. It's a 4-year cycle, and 2025 is the real time to be making hard decisions. Until then these are practically play-money moves.
Hive is woof!
As our network has been known to do we are still scraping the local bottom (25-35 cents) while Bitcoin has ascended to all time highs from the $16k floor. Truly this is very annoying especially for someone like me that is perma-bullish on Hive and what we have to offer. I definitely have more BTC now that I did last cycle in 2020... but also not enough to justify dumping it into the coins I actually want like Hive and Rune. Sometimes it feels like a monkey throwing darts at a board would outperform the lot of us, and maybe it would.
It's very demoralizing to be in this position once again, but I guess it shouldn't surprise us as it seems to be a theme. Looking at the chart we are continuing to bottom out against BTC. 446 sats per Hive. For context the all time low is 300. I look at this chart and I'm like wow I really should be buying here, but with what funds to pull from? At the point the best I can do is be annoyed that I don't have a balanced portfolio and continue to stack my blogging, curation, and node rewards. I do still have a small chunk of BTC on MEXC that I'm looking to liquidate to pay bills over the next few months. I think there's a very significant chance that I won't have access to that exchange by the end of the year. It will be DEXes from here on out if that happens.
Conclusion
Always darkest before the dawn, as they say. It's normally very profitable to bet against our own emotion within these vampiric markets. On a very real level it pays to divorce oneself from the assets under their control. The trick is making sure that this level of apathy doesn't lead to making purposefully poor financial decisions.
At the end of the day we are still very much in practice-mode when it comes to the current market. In the grand scheme of things it doesn't matter if summer performs well or what the price is at the end of Q3. It's all about Q4 and 2025. I'm not worried about these faux top signals until the market sentiment actually portrays some hubris. From my perspective all I see is fear, which is ironically a good and healthy sign.
Good advice. Rule #1 of prudent investing. Gambling too, I suppose.
Thanks!
I am working on getting back in the game myself. Had to pull what little I had to trade with for some personal and family crap. But yeah, not looking very exciting at the moment on longer time frames. Always some scalping opportunities though, and that's what I am looking for at the moment to build back quick at 50X and then once I can get back to a decent base level, move back to 10X leverage and some longer trades. Last couple of sessions have been down and dirty in the 1-5 minute timeframes. Even now it's like playing a video game, lol.
To be honest, it's tough out there, especially with the uncertainty in the crypto market. I've had to step back too, but I'm eyeing those short-term scalping opportunities to bounce back. It's like a video game sometimes man 😂😂😂😂😂😂
The fear seems off the scales which is a great sign. I see the talk is about stacking alts ready for the big push, but like you say, where do we pull reserves from!?! I can only keep my wife at bay for a certain amount of time and will need to pay some bills.
Imagine how freaked out people would be if we were trading back at $58k or even $50k which would be perfectly normal bull market retracements. I'm definitely not rooting for that to happen but I certainly won't be selling the bottom either.
still waiting for mid 14 cents downward spike on hive, lol
At that point I can't even be mad I just have to go all in like I did in 2020.
Really will like to understand this crypto stuff
Well, you are in the right place man. I created a website that people can use that brings a ton of information all into one place. Check out https://coin-logic.com for market data, charts, news, and my own educational blog articles. Not really shilling, just trying to provide a good resource for you to learn, that is if you are really trying to understand crypto and not just being a troll, lol.
Crypto is like another world 🌎 entirely
Such a strategic investment!
Thank you, particularly for sharing your insightful analysis of the current state of the cryptocurrency market.
It’s refreshing to read about your personal investment strategies, which add a relatable and practical dimension to your analysis.
widening highway lanes counterintuitively doesn't tend to relieve traffic. It incentivises more people to use it, thus clogging the roads again. However, if we added 100 more lanes, there's only a finite number of people who can fill it up and thus we would no longer have traffic... at the cost of a 100-lane-wide monstrosity bulldozing the landscape.
I am wondering if BTC is similar. Sure, it's following a four year cycle, but that can't literally go on forever, we can't keep widening that to 100 lanes of investment. There's only so much money out there. I know BTC accounts for a small amount of wealth out there overall, but the amount that has a high enough red line to shift away from traditional assets to crypto, is likely a lot more limited.
I wonder if the cycle pattern is coming to an end, as investors are simply not going to gamble on even the most majestic of pumps and positive legislation, when they can just put it all into Nvidia instead.
There's traditional investors out there comfortably getting 15-50% gains per year consistently, which is far more than anyone really foresees bitcoin accomplishing. If it doubles tomorrow, that's still 150% over 4 years or so, which isn't as good as, say, Nancy Pelosi's general portfolio (65% in 2023 alone)
I thought BTC upside was infinite?
one day 1 sat = one planet
space travel dude. think about it
Oh yeah, it's so obvious.. duh XD