Werewolves are buying
The market is in a very tenuous position right now. We need to get the F out of this consolidation phase over the next two weeks in my opinion. One month has been long enough.
Two days ago a lot of the alts crashed to good support levels. BNB was at $250. Monero at $200. Litecoin at $120. Hive and LEO around 20 cents. Uniswap at $15; so on and so forth.
Bitcoin dominance continues to increase.
Prepare to be dominated.
Considering the fear in the market it's hard to imagine any kind of significant alt-market in the short term even in the bullish scenario of Bitcoin going up. At best I think alts can keep up the pace with BTC at this level.
We absolutely need to break out of this wedge within the next two weeks in my opinion. If not I'm going to be preparing for $20k. We've had plenty of consolidation. It's time to bust out of here. $35k needs to flip to support for the bullish reversal pattern to complete. Again, I think we have two weeks to giterdone. Looks like it could even happen today, who knows.
In two weeks I really really want to be at the $45k resistance line getting rejected (or even better yet a breakout, but this is unexpected). I'm hoping for $45k down to $40k or even as low as $35k to test support before this FUD disappears and we start marking back up.
Am I just making stuff up?
Yes, yes I am.
Again, I have no reason to think the mega-bubble has been called off because crypto Twitter is cowering in fear along with the rest of retail. We are still well above the doubling curve, which has been my anchor for making predictions. It's literally the only thing I've said over the years that seems to hold true. Hey, I'll take it. If it keeps proving itself: that's the only anchor I need to make a mint. It will come in quite useful going forward if the pattern holds.
Again, this means that no matter where Bitcoin is going at the end of the year, I think it's almost guaranteed to be around $50k at the end of 2022 (assuming a Q4 bull run for 2021).
But what if Q4 isn't as great as everyone assumes it will be?
The market rarely does what we assume it's going to do. That's because if a bunch of people assume a certain outcome the sharks come in to exploit that mindset, therefore it never comes to pass.
For example, what happens if Bitcoin is trading at $100k at the end of the year? Many are going to assume this is the top of a mega-bubble because unit-bias and laser eyes and all this rampant fear at $30k. However, $100k by EOY is only x3.9 higher than the doubling curve. That's not a mega-bubble, it's just a really big regular bubble.
I really think we can count on something fairly unexpected happening. The next run up may be a lot different than what we are used to. I still think Summer 2022 is on the table for a potential peak, even if BTC is trading at $100k by the end of the year. The pattern of BTC having a run every 18 months may continue holding true, and mid 2022 fits right into that pattern.
If we were to get a mega bubble in mid 2022, by my count BTC would get all the way up to $400k. How crazy would that be? Of course I'm hardly even rooting for that outcome, as the crushing bear market that follows these things turns new users into rage-quitting table-flippers. Call me crazy, but I'd rather have a non-volatile token that goes x2 every year that's constantly gaining new users over a super volatile asset that bubbles x10 randomly and wrecks all the noobs.
Wish in one hand.
The crazy thing about the Bitcoin chart right now is that volatility is increasing. Even though we just crashed below $30k recently, we also had a false breakout up to $41k. This signals to me that manipulation is happening. A false breakout to the upside to trap bulls and then a false breakout to the downside to trap bears in rapid succession?
Call me crazy but it feels like the sharks are dominating this market and fleecing all the weak hands. The day traders are getting wrecked. And let's be honest: they deserve it. There's no reason to play with fire during a mega-bubble year. It is known.
Usually in bearish scenarios the volatility will decrease. This is what I've talked about time and time again in reference to my "volcano" pattern (blow off top). Volume and volatility will decrease steadily over time, until finally the ice breaks and the market crashes to the downside.
We are seeing the opposite right now. Volatility is increasing and their are false breakouts in both directions. The sharks are playing games and this whole bear market bluff is about to be revealed for what it is: hot air designed to get weak hands to sell the lows. Business as usual.
Conclusion
Of course my predictions have a terrible track record. It's a fun joke within the LEO community: simply bet against what @edicted says and you'll make a ton of money. This one's for you: LEO.
Today is a full moon, and recent history has shown that full moons mark support for the last few months. I believe we are at the beginning of a major reversal after a month of consolidation, but the next two weeks are critical for this reality to materialize.
Again, worst case scenario is a classic head-and-shoulders pattern back to $20k. However, head-and-shoulders patterns complete themselves less than 55% of the time. Considering this is a mega bubble year, I'm willing to bet the odds are even less than 50/50 this time around. Again, a crash to $20k signals the absolute bottom, and the silver lining there is that I'll be fully comfortable going long and trading on debt again; something I haven't done for quite some time.
Either way, I think now is a good time to buy. Even if we don't break out to the upside over the next two weeks, I think there's a strong chance we could just dump and still turn a small profit even in the bearish scenario. The tea leaves command it. Make it so!
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Your honesty is refreshing... in a world full of self-proclaimed experts and soothsayers, the only safe projection is a confident shrug of the shoulders. That's not to discount your obvious experience and knowledge, but rather just to point out that I appreciate the realism.
Bang on! Most popular guesses are sitting around $100k by the end of this year... and I certainly won't bet against it, but I'd rather just keep investing what I can and banking on the overall long-term win.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
It's going to be funny if they are right about $100k, but they all turn bearish and sell (creating a bear trap) before the REAL run up. I could see that situation playing out pretty easily.
I won't be too bothered by it! lol
But you're right... It's all about the spin. Even when it does get up to six figures, most of the influencers even have public cash-out plans that start really ramping up at that point. It'll be a tough ceiling to crack through.
Engage!
I think we will see price recovery soon.
And I agree, manipulation is becoming more a thing. Sucks, but it was bound to happen.
I no longer feel I have full vision of what's coming for this chart, first time in years. For what it's worth.
so maybe I got some bad news for you:
https://peakd.com/hive-167922/@tobetada/crypto-analysis-or-bull-market-has-shifted-to-2022
yeah the timelines for a Q4 mega run don't exactly make the most sense
I'd say that's about to happen in the near future.
Now you tell us...
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Thanks for insights.
Yesterday i made a post on Bitcoin and 3 Day Curse and after just fee hours curse is broken. So i am positive as well. Seems like Wyckoff is playing off... The composite man.
All I needed to hear! Time to buy cheap crypto and accumulate more tokens!
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Well, the old truism from the legacy stock markets might hold true: "The markets climb a wall of worry."
We did — briefly — pop above $35K a couple of times over the last few hours; all we need is one more solid uptick in the next couple of days....
=^..^=
This is just how markets work.
We like to think we are, but crypto isn't special in this regard.
Sharks gonna shark.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
meh.. up down are we going to sell? What does it look like in 3-4 years.
Eh well if BTC is trading x10 above the doubling curve I feel like it would be foolish to stay bullish.
If the doubling curve holds, 4 years down the road BTC would be $320k at the baseline.
Will the course of the pandemic affect the prices of BTC and altcoins?
Crypto is tied to the legacy economy so probably.
Hard to predict how though.
Congratulations @edicted! You have completed the following achievement on the Hive blockchain and have been rewarded with new badge(s) :
Your next payout target is 54000 HP.
The unit is Hive Power equivalent because your rewards can be split into HP and HBD
You can view your badges on your board and compare yourself to others in the Ranking
If you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word
STOPAm just sitting here, observing....hoping for the best but expecting the worst
Well 20k isn't bad considering I bought my position back around 10k. Of course if it drops further, I plan on buying and adding to my position.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
!PIZZA
@edicted! I sent you a slice of $PIZZA on behalf of @lxsxl.
Learn more about $PIZZA Token at hive.pizza (1/10)
Great article. I think I'm werewolf my self , joking 🙃.
You great talk about what is happening now , and I will wish to btc and alts go up and new ath to them all. And specially to Hive 😁😁😁