Euphoria: coming to a blockchain near you.
$BTC has once again broken the $52k barrier and threatens a triple-top breakout above the current resistance. This comes at the perfect time when looking at all my previous speculation from 17 days ago:
My expectation is that there will be only 3 weeks of real rallying in an upward direction, so we should plan for the next 2 weeks of being a struggle-bus that attempts to crack resistance around $50k unit bias.
I was definitely correct about the struggle-bus market but it looks like the real mental barrier was closer to $52k than the $50k unit bias. If the current rally really is starting now that means the three week timer starts today. Because the ETF doesn't get traded on weekends we lose the weekend... meaning three weeks from today is literally Friday March 15 (the ides of March) which... has been EXACTLY the plan this entire time.
If we were going to start rallying and peaking a month before the halving event that would start right about now, which it appears to be doing.
A month before halving is going to be around the Ides of March (how ominous). The new moon is on March 10th. On top of that Mercury will be in retrograde from April 1, 2024, to April 24, 2024, just in time to slap the halving event.
The situation seems to be getting serious.
Yep so all my targets are unchanged. Still hoping for a wicked blow-off top next month. I still have no idea how much we could pump... but current targets are still something like a double top at $69k or laser-eyes unit-bias at $100k.
It's also worth noting that ETF demand has made trading the volatility here nearly impossible because every single dip is a soft landing that just gets bought up by the ETF resulting in numerous V-shaped recoveries. We haven't even come close to supply shock yet and it's unclear when this will actually occur. Soon™
It's also not totally clear just how well Bitcoin miners are hedged against their own impending doom come April. Did they sell enough Bitcoin and buy enough runway to make it past potentially unprofitable months? We've also never seen this kind of unrelenting pre-programmed buying pressure during a halving.
Is it possible that all these delusional maximalists are actually correct in thinking that the event will create an instant supply shock? I mean it's possible but I refuse to trade with the herd. The event quite simply has too much hype to actually live up to expectations in the short-term. Give it 1 year and all bets are off.
Simple moving averages tell us not to worry.
There's a reasonable expectation that even if we get a big dip it could easily bounce off the MA(25) which has already ascended to $49k due to the 2 weeks of sideways trading. Below that the MA(100) which is an exponentially better support sits at $44k. It's all looking stupidly bullish until we get that blow-off top and peak halving event FOMO. In fact I saw a testimonial on Twitter of a guy who said their Grandma bought FBTC because of the halving event... and when the guy asked her if she knew what the halving event was she said "no". Classic retail. It's exactly the kind of mentality that creates these tops in the first place.
Most bullish scenario is doubling curve rejection.
If Bitcoin makes it back to the curve (doubling in value every year since $100 in 2013) then we'd have to spike all the way up to $117k in mid March, which would obviously be pretty insane but certainly not out of the realm of possibility. I guess I'll just keep throwing that out there given the 1% chance that it actually happens and I can say I-told-you-so in retrospect and look like a super smart and competent trader (which I am clearly not).
If Hive was trading at something very sad still like 35 cents in this scenario 1 Hive would be around 300 sats and I'd probably have to take the plunge and dump my 0.5 BTC back into my favorite bag. Pickup another 170k Hive.
Gooble Gobble.
Hive window-shopping speculation
Also known as extreme cope, sometimes I like to think about what would happen to Hive price if we really did embark on one of those moon rallies that so many other tokens have experienced. Acidyo was recently asking how much users would sell if Hive hit $10, but in the current environment $10 Hive isn't even a lot anymore. Rank #358 is a crazy place for this token to be. It's honestly disappointing to not buy Hive here because 600 sats is a very good price that sits on a low hanging support line. My expectation is that Hive will once again be 5000 sats during peak bull market 2025.
The numbers are insane.
- There are 423,526,510 HIVE
- A token price of $10 is $4.24B market cap.
- This gets us to rank #25 if the market stands still.
- If the larger market goes 10x it only gets us to rank #170.
- If the larger market goes 5x to our 30x that gets us to rank #105.
- If they go 5x Hive has to go x201 to $67.28 per coin to flip Shiba Inu at rank #20.
See how batshit insane things could get with real adoption?
Even $100 Hive is not out of the question (this would be very bad for stability & user retention). Again I don't want Hive to spike that much as it would completely destabilize everything we've got going. The best result is always going to be a slow super-cycle in which number is always going slightly up. Unfortunately for us that's not how human psychology works. When we make a decision we tend to go all in and min/max our positions. It is what it is.
Conclusion
It looks like the thing might actually be happening. These blow-off top rallies tend to last about 3 weeks, with the third and final week creating more gains than the previous two combined. Eventually the volcano erupts with and outburst of FOMO, volume, and dumping. Don't take the wrong side of this trade if it happens. The Ides of March beckon.
The bitcoin market is weird. Like, things aren't what we thought. Or, there is other players in the market/other factors we aren't including.
With the bitcoin being bought up by the ETFs, there should have been much more price movement. Unless of course they bought up all the bitcoin before hand, and the only real trades were Grayscale selling, and someone else buying. (basically swapping between two hands)
So, i feel i do not have a clear picture.
I do not trust past patterns going forward here. (ETF and/or adoption changes things)
And, about HIVE, we may make it into the top 100 because so many other coins die.
This is the year (or maybe next year) of shaking out the shit coins.
There are so many bears selling their BTC to Blackrock.
Eventually we hit supply shock and it's just gone.
Obviously you thought this should of happened sooner.
I tend to agree but also the bears are delusional and keep dumping into it openly.
It honestly hasn't been that long and many are saying it takes 3 months for some of these guys to jump through all the red tape required to sell these derivatives in the first place.
Oh wow, shows how much I have been paying attention! Last I looked at the price this morning it was still sitting around the $51K mark! Now here we are up over $54K. I'm not even sure I am ready for what we have coming.
Yep same thing happened to me except I was reading a tweet that was less than a minute old that showed a chart of BTC being $53k+. Coingecko said $51k I refreshed it and it was indeed above $53k.
I honestly don't mind surprises like that!
I have just kind of switched to trading up WETH/WBTC pair through the cycle using AAVE on Polygon to collect more sats, it’s been working pretty well so I am going to ride the wave up that way and then go into tether when the cycle is done. Not only can I trade it, but actually use it as collateral for loans at the same time. This way I am still in one of the major assets pretty much at all times during the bull run.
I unfortunately don’t share your thoughts on Hive, I don’t think it’s going to do much. I mean sure it will have some pumps here and there, but it doesn’t have the same market effect that the larger cap coins do. We have been talking about the possibility of Hive being this or that, but hell, we can’t stay above .35 much less try to go to $10. And honestly, none of the outside crypto market really cares about Hive or it would already be much bigger than it is. Hell, the all time high for Hive was a pump and dump within a couple of days and went right back down. And then if you have it all staked up, it doesn’t matter anyway because you can’t do shit but watch your value go up then crash back to the floor. At least that was my experience last time, so the name of the game for me this cycle is liquidity.
Any coin can get adoption at any time for any reason.
Looking at previous price action as an indicator is automatically going to lead us astray.
It hasn't happened yet, and what you are doing is looking at the past and pointing at the chart and being like, "See, it didn't happen." The reality of the situation is that this is completely irrelevant data to measure future performance. It's like saying a slot machine is hot or cold when the laws of statistics can mathematically prove it will always be completely neutral and independent of previous performance. And yet the people in the casino don't care how it works and they just make shit up and run with it because that's the fun thing to do; aka they are there for entertainment purposes not to make money.
You are also just... kind of remembering it wrong. Hive was in a bull market for the entire year of 2021. We were above 50 cents on aggregate for like a year, and that's with a floor of 10 cents (so x5 the floor price). Now the floor is 25 cents.
Moving the price of Hive up and down is very easy. I can do it. A single billionaire taking interest in this network spikes up the price x10 automatically. Probably more. And they wouldn't be able to buy that many tokens before that kind of pumping occurred. It would be a very small investment.
Hive's biggest problem is the fact that our brand is less than 4 years old, we got totally fucked by the hostile takeover, our interoperability is poor, our liquidity is poor, and we have no smart contracts. Basically all of that can turn around during this bull market because we are building the exact infrastructure that we need.
At the very least Hive being able to maintain a rank of #200 during the bull market would automatically be a massive pump, and that raw gain in token value doesn't even count the ability to earn yield or blogging income.
But yeah we'll see how it goes Hive does have a pattern of big erratic inflows and slow-bleed outflows and that may never change given how the platform works. Then again that's exactly the kind of volatility and predictable price action that makes Hive one of the best tokens to have in a trading account. The fact that it isn't correlated to the greater market is one of the biggest strengths.
We'll just have to see I guess. I still spend my time and put effort here, so that is saying something, I just have to play my bigger funds elsewhere this time around. I wish we had more liquidity on the internal exchange vs centralized exchanges, because that is where I want to trade it.
Yeah we will have to wait and see but these days my crypto arsenal is BTC, HIVE, HBD, and RUNE.
All 4 of these assets do a completely different thing and they are all uncorrelated.
Volatility trading strong positions into weak positions is free money.
Hive might not be worth acquiring for another year, but it almost certainly will in 2025.
The longer it lags behind the more it will be worth getting.
Here's to hoping! I am still here earning.
Isn't the blow-off top supposed to happen a few good months after the halving?
I guess we'll have to see about that. I am pretty sure though that BTC hasn't experienced much buying pressure coming from retail yet. They will be there once it breaks $100,000 and they will FOMO "just because it's going to $1 million". Or they'll simply ignore it and buy DOGE because it's Elon Musk's favorite cryptocurrency.
Personally, I believe something like $60,000 is highly achievable for BTC pre-halving and way over $100,000 as a top for the bull market. A top that might occur this year.
There can be more than one blow-off. So maybe a pre-halving mini blow-off but then a second major event later. Q3/Q4 of 2025?
Makes sense. To me "blow-off" resonates in my mind to the grand finale. In this case, we might see a steep correction before the halving once BTC gets too cocky. At some point, ETFs will slow down.
We got a very obvious blow-off-top volcano in summer 2019 that clearly was not the grand finale and marked more of a middle point. It's a shape that can pop up pretty much anywhere. They take at least 3 months to bottom out after blowing up. 2019 took more like 6 months to complete but ETF buying pressure combined with halving could easily shorten that to less time... although September is usually a great time to buy so 5 months is on the table.
Nah the big one happens a full year after.
Or in this case maybe October 2025 looking at previous patterns.
Happened in 2013, 2017, and 2021.
2021 got a little weird because of COVID money injections so it was a Wyckoff pattern for the entire year with 2 tops.
I'd take that!
This is going to be an interesting 3 weeks. The Ides of March... funny how these things work out.
Not meant as financial advice, yet keep in mind the all time HIVE vs BTC comparison graph...
Basically trades flat in a sine wave across cycles.
Business as usual.
Volatility trading is the obvious move.
I'm going to say $114,000 as the peak point for however long this bull run lasts but also yes normally we see a price increase and then a sell off shortly after. However within a month we normally bounce back and continue with the bull run. This halving cycle is really going to put a drain on liquidity that's for sure.
I liked your analysis , the truth this explosion is imminent, but we must take into consideration that each Halving cycle has matured a little more. I see BTC at $100K and all Altcoins dragged down by it, as it has always happened, but I don't have high expectations that prices will inflate too much, I may be wrong. I personally feel that this for Hive will be an opportunity to show ourselves to the world a bit more, but the real value of Hive we will get in the future, when it will be recognized, an influential network and offering the world something different and important.... For the moment we are in the shadows, but little by little we will show ourselves, increasing the demand and thus the value.
This market cap is really confusing but I can't predict who knows the next happening
Bitcoin is moving with the speed of light ,cure @54k
I still hope it goes a little bit up. Even Hive going into 5$ goes into my plan of creating a flow of income via savings. But let's see how everything goes when the Ides of March arrive.
Hi sir I love you.
It is obvious that there is a speed in the bike of crypto price especially BTC and the halving will bring more pump. The good thing is for Hive to benefit well from it
That’s my wish
#Bitcoin +9% 56.050,39 👍 😀
#Crypto on the move up.
Link to the pic: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GHU5MMAWoAAk23L?format=png&name=360x360
I am quite confused, it seems that the bullish cycle is moving forward a year, it makes me think that perhaps they want to trick us into thinking that this is just the beginning and in 2025 when we all think that there will be the biggest explosions they will be selling large quantities with enough profit for all those who are entering due to fomo, a strong and prolonged fall in 2025 would ruin the plans of many people, the institutional ones would come out to the stock exchanges full ready to repurchase a year later and have a larger piece of the BTC
Trust the ones that powered up and are committed to thriving here. Those will not sell. I had some, a bit of liquid Hives and went to play at a slots casino belonging to Hive projects...lost them all. So I guess I won't have much to either support Hive by powering up or to sell.