Alright so it's been three weeks since Bitcoin started pumping.
March 15th is here, so how did my predictions do? Well we certainly have not experienced a blow-off top, but rather the trend was slowly and strongly up the whole time into and above all-time-highs. However, yesterday the signals for reversal were painfully obvious.
LINK
Yep
Called it pretty perfectly. The Bart Simpson move we got the day before was clearly a bad omen. The ascending triangle is also bearish. Once volatility was gone the trendline collapsed.
7 hours later...
5 hours later... dead cat bounce
So I did what I said I was gonna do, I pulled out thousands of dollars at $71.5k to pay back my debts and load up my bank account. On top of that I opened a short to hedge the position. I have to say I was not happy about it, but obviously I feel a little better and vindicated about it today now that we are down even farther. It can always go down more. Never forget that.
The price currently trades in No-Mans-Land and there is no trend. The price has collapsed too hard and too fast over a sustained period of time to see any kind of new pattern or trend. However, there are a couple of different metrics we can use to guess what the next floor will be.
I hate to say it but it REALLY looks like a bearish head and shoulders pattern. This is something I can't ignore because I've been predicting this top for 3 whole weeks and here it is almost exactly on time. If we don't make a quick recovery within days and just chug along $65k-$70k range during that time I'm going to have to expect a crash down to the next level at $62k.
$62k
When trying to find a support line to retreat back to I always take a look at the 25-day moving average. It just so coincidentally happens that $62k is both the the MA(25) AND the next leg down on the head-and-shoulders. That's hard to ignore. Wouldn't be surprised if we caught a bid there but also I think April is going to be a long and punishing month so that's probably not a low enough target for a local bottom.
$58k
Looking at the chart nothing happened at $58k, which is the perfect reason to suspect it might be significant this time around. Hardly anyone got the chance to buy here, and there is even a social media Bitcoiner community specially called the $58k Gang (created during the peaks of 2021). This is a place I'd bet on holding or at least putting up a good fight for a good chunk of time.
Another reason to bet on $58k is that a dip here would be extremely consistent with previous dips we've seen. A dip from all time high to $58k is 21%, which is the exact type of dip we are looking for in this environment of aggressive and consistent ETF buyers. I'll definitely be throwing a bid in a this level if only to say I held the line with the $58k Gang.
$50k
The final destination of the head and shoulders pattern would take us all the way down to $51k or maybe even a little lower. I don't actually expect this to happen, but if it does I'll be making a big bet that it will recover here. No matter what happens I'm going to continue assuming that April is bearish. We could spike to $100k from here and I'd still place my bets in this way.
Other possibilities
The absolute best situation to be in is one where Bitcoin crabwalks in the $65k-$75k range for the rest of March and into the entire month of April. That would be an incredible outcome and would likely spark a nice little altmarket for everyone else, much to the maximalist's dismay.
The final and least likely thing to happen at this point is supply shock sweeps over the market completely randomly and sends us parabolic. After all the signals we just got I'm not going to hold my breath on this front. We made it the 3 weeks; we are out of runway; time to prepare for a pullback and some halving event disappointment. The rumor will not live up to the hype, even if it is just a V-shaped move like the ETF launch.
All this being said we really do need some more information here, and I think next week will signal the new trend into April. This market is wildly unpredictable and volatile. In my opinion we should easily already be at $120k because of how many tokens the ETF has sucked up. The market doesn't care and wants to play this speculation game. Let's see who wins.
I'm betting on the $58k gang.
New trendline just dropped?
Woof. Down. Down. Down.
Well, it was fun while it lasted. Back down for awhile until about a month after the halvening?
Actually I think V-shaped recoveries are guaranteed.
We could flash crash to $58k at any time and I'd be pretty confident in a reversal soon.
However long it takes to hit the bottom will be how long it takes to recover.
Pretty standard.
You make that often predictions that at some points you by chance have to have some right ones :)
In reality no one knows when it goes up and down (some might know but don´t go public).
After the patterns has formed people are then very creative in interpreting them (Bart Simpson shape, dead cat, head shoulder, and many others).
This is the problem with derivative markets. With nominal capital derivatives control the market. With malicious intent the retail market can be fleeced and the big money can gain share.
I said we would be up for 3 weeks and we were up for exactly 3 weeks.
This is difficult to ignore.
There were half a dozen different signals that pointed to that being the top for the time being.
We'll see if it works out.
My official target is $58k now; I'm pretty convinced at this point.
Any chance an imminent ETH ETF announcement has been whispered in boardrooms?
That'd nicely fit what we're seeing. Somebody knows something we don't.
I haven't been paying attention to that angle actually.
Maybe I should be.
Anyone who knows timing on an ETH ETF, who has significant BTC bags and the right friends, could short BTC into the ground just before the announcement, then pump ETH to the moon.
Starting to feel like this ride's only just starting.
I doubt Bitcoin goes down while ETH moves up.
Do you think bitcoin dominance will continue indefinitely? If it has to end at some point, how will we know it's coming? How much of it's current speculative value is based on it's dominance, and what happens if faith in that dominance is shaken?
If Bitcoin network fails ETH is going to a dollar and Hive .0001 cents.
I'm not talking about the network failing; I mean if bitcoin marketcap loses dominance against alts.
If comment is mostly about this ETF news I can tell u 100% ETH is not going to increase beyond Bitcoin market cap this cycle ever.
I’m more inclined to agree with the crab walk. Dumps have been short lived. Except for Solana, which has exaggerated moves following BTC, the volatility has seemed rather lame. Definitely a slow overall rise.
You really pulled those strings there and I know it's hard for you but at least you achieve something. Especially paying up those debts
I don't know, I just saw this post and it is already back up around $70k isn't it?
Yes but it is possible to get an edge and win around 60% of the time.
Which is all you need to become a professional day trader.
Also that $70k pump is shown at the very end and it looks bearish AF.
I'll definitely need some more confirmation of a trend reversal but I see what I see.
And it just so happens that it lines up exactly with what I said 3 weeks ago (top in 3 weeks).
It just didn't top as high as I wanted.
Actually I had 3 targets: ATH, $100k, and $120k.
So we hit the lower end of my target in the exact timeframe I picked.
I can't ignore that.
Especially with thousands in credit card debt.
That 100k mark is starting to look like a mythical beast! I'm being. Drawn back to last cycle and the speculation we would hit that point.
But you never can tell, because his predictions where right at some point
You Played very well tbh in these market conditions!!
-20% is reasonable in bull market, the worst I'm expecting to happen is BTC around $61k-$63k frontrunning that 58k.
Hopefully it's that BTC consolidating b/w 65k to 75k and Altcoins grinding up higher without any market wide nuke moving into halving.
Wow
Is the bull run quickly over? Lol
We don’t ever want it to end
No I'm thinking we just dip 20% to $58k into another V-shaped recovery.
It's actually better the way or worked out.
If we were trading at $120k right now the crash would be much worse.
some nice chart analysis there.. yes, shorting was a good idea.. 👊😉
I was following ur calls on Twitter, u called it perfect 💯