As all of my readers clearly cling to my every word, I'm sure that you've all been awaiting the epic Bitcoin pump I've been promising today.
We've exited the potentially bearish ascending triangle into an actually bearish descending channel... which is currently extremely narrow. I expect this channel to widen or completely break very soon.
To Recap
In the last ten days we spiked from $13500 to $16000. We then entered an ascending triangle with a flat resistance line, which then turned into an ascending triangle with an ascending resistance line... and now into a descending channel... in ten days. If one thing is very clear, it's that the market has no idea what to do.
Or perhaps we're still in the ascending channel!
Who knows!? The market doesn't.
Sure, institutional FOMO could kick in at any time and we could have $30k Bitcoin today. However, given this price action I think we need to return to some kind of support line. $15k is looking pretty good on that front.
Truth be told, all we have to do is close this monthly candle above $14k and a lot of speculators are going to wake up to that clearly bullish price action. If Bitcoin closes at $15k or higher this month, that's well above previous all time highs.
Again, a "flash-crash" to $15k at this point isn't even a dip as defined by 10% or more. Losing $1000 out of $16000 is only a 6.25% loss. That's nothing in cryptoland. Of course the news circuit will act like the sky is falling... god they are thin skinned aren't they? You'd think they'd never looked at the charts before.
So why am I making a big deal about nov 14?
Because...
If someone could superimpose the Bitcoin logo onto that tower that gets smashed that would be great. Because Bitcoin usually gets absolutely crushed on my birthday. Seeing as we've already spiked 60% in 6 weeks I'm guessing there will be some kind of pullback here. Again, all we have to do is stay above $14k come December 1st. Easy peezy.
For the last three years November 14th has been a pretty good baseline for crypto. We see that the price didn't change much.
| year | price |
|---|---|
| 2017 | $7300 |
| 2018 | $5788 |
| 2019 | $8652 |
| 2020 | $16000 |
2018 was especially fun because the price crashed all the way down exactly to the doubling curve at $3200 in early December. Again in 2019 the price crashed $1500 to $7000 shortly after. Of course in 2017 the price spiked to $20k so that was crazy.
What I'm getting at here is that November is always a precursor to volatility. Seeing as we're set up for a bull market things are probably going to get out of control come December and for the next year.
Bitcoin Doubling Curve
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | $200 | $400 | $800 | $1600 | $3200 |
However, what was Bitcoin in November 2016?
It fluctuated narrowly between $700 and $750. After that, all Novembers were x10 higher than that essentially.
What is the price now?
$16k... which could easily be signaling the times of change are upon us. I guess we'll find out soon. Personally I think the price of Bitcoin next November is going to be somewhere around $70k-$160k (10x the numbers we see today).
| year | price |
|---|---|
| 2013 | $424 |
| 2014 | $377 |
| 2015 | $320 |
| 2016 | $712 |
Again, we see this weird pattern were the price of Bitcoin is pretty stable across November time periods, but on the year before the epic bull run it doubles. We are in that year right now, with Bitcoin being $16k today. As always 2021 flags itself as the mega-bubble year. I'm still targeting a peak at $250k or slightly more.
LEO update
LEO is absolutely murdering it as we ascend to the fabled 2:1 price ratio on Hive Engine. We even hit all time highs today in that regard. 2.12 Hive for 1 Leo... wow...
On the wLEO side of things, we're up to $386k liquidity in the Uniswap pool after a couple days. 420 ETH and 800k wLEO. Pretty insane honestly. Clearly the Geyser model is working and the inflation we spend on this is going to pay off big time.
Follow-up
In my next post I'll explain why Bitcoin is going to keep going up due to the brrrrrr-machine and the Biden Administration's embracing of The Green New Deal.
And don't forget:
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
In place where hive doesn't seem exciting, Leo absolutely feels more than exciting. As for 30k BTC we can't overuule it by the way, I'm guessing it's still doing decently fine at 16k now.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
when it went to 16400 on 13th i thought maybe you will be right :D
happy birthday.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Happy birthday man, you never fail to bring up some interesting considerations about any topic it seems.
Even if not all "predictions" come true, they are still very interesting "what if"'s, so keep up the good work and keep speculating :D
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
TA is just pretty pictures.
I reckon rational investment is not undertaken through gut feelings and decorative depictions of financial events, but through diligent analysis of economic forces and careful prediction of expected permutations.
But, you have experienced your historical results and accordingly expect the means you have employed to date to continue to perform nominally.
Personally, I have discovered that being lulled into a false sense of security is existentially dangerous. This is why I am not investing in any part of the extant market, and am all in goodwill.
To be frank, everyone dies, and no one takes it with them, so there is no asset class that is failure proof. Cynics make poor investors, but Pollyannas make good targets. All I can really do is hope you succeed.
Good luck.
Happy Birthday my friend!!! Cheers and I wish you many more MOONS!
Grear post and it would be awesome if we see $BTC at least over $30k, good times are coming
Bitcoin is like an 800 pound gorilla, it does what it wants LOL
Leo I love this...
This is great, except if your buying. 2;1 Leo to hive!
That’s Amazing!
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
wow, you tricked us all!!!
Yes, I am so cunning.
No one could have seen this non-event coming :D
happy birthday and may the force be with you :)
As usual Bitcoin displays its volatility, and if it crashes I expect it will shake out the Weak Hands. I still remember your comment in another post about how Ethereum is usually more volatile then Bitcoin, but this year its Bitcoin which is more volatile. The Proof is in the Pudding!
Hang on folks, we are about to experience some turbulence.
Look to your left and right, some folks may get thrown off this bucking bronco Bitcoin!
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Truly the crypto world is unpredictable definitely