A three year trendline is hopium?
That's kind of wild statement to make.
How are we defining hopium?
Less than 10% chance?
I'd give it at least a coinflip.
When we consider where we are in the cycle (year 3) a dip like the one you're showing is the actual hopium imo. That's free-money long position right there. A move like the one you've drawn makes a lot more sense in 2022 or 2023 imo, as it very much looks like the BTC collapse of 2018.
What I find most odd about this analysis is that you haven't even drawn the line... but you have drawn a line with the exact same slope at the lower level. Which means you likely did draw it and then you purposefully took it out after using the slope for the baseline. Why?
Don't take this too seriously. I was trying to be a bit funny :o
I covered the support you have drawn in fall of last year: https://peakd.com/hive-167922/@tobetada/crypto-analysis-or-hive-support-epiphany
It was quite a bit of an epiphany. It should hold... but I think I might have entered the depression phase of the cycle. 2 years+ and we are still clinging onto 30 cents; I don't want to look at the chart anymore or get my hopes up for a fake pump and dump with $100M volume in an obviously rigged whale game.
We have so much going for this chain, it is miles ahead of just about any of our competitors and yet we don't get any value appreciation in terms of price. What hope do we have when Steem still has almost the same MC?
Oh well, I guess I just like to rant a bit.
The trend line in the chart is not the one you drew shifted lower, we can draw it by taking the lowest weekly closes (is that a word?) from the early days (see ellipse):
Oh and by the way, the 2 year+ trend line is failing. Price is now trading under it - 5 more days to close above it.
The reason why the path I drew makes "sense" is that we'd get a really nice close with the cycle in the end of 2025 with roughly the same gains as in 2021 and could even make a new ATH... doesn't sound to bad honestly
Hive 15 cents, I feel it in my bones (would still be up around 60% from the last lows, but we would be completely out of sync of the 1 year bear cycle, or is that just how Hive moves? 3 years down, 1 year up)
There's nothing very serious about TA it's all such a crapshoot.
I am wholly convinced that September will mark a local bottom so we'll see how that pans out.
I'm honestly a lot more interested in the value measured against BTC because that's what I'll be using to buy Hive if the price is right. A repeat of last cycle would indeed put us at a low against BTC at the end of this year. I was a bit convinced last cycle was a bit of a one-off because of the hostile takeover but maybe not.
the Hive/BTC chart brings insomnia for me, so I don't even look at it anymore :) I might as well look down a water well
I don't want to say it, but... we are right on track
:)