Blast from the past
I forget what the above picture is from... Kinda looks like Magic the Gathering. Reverse image search on Google points to death metal. In any case I have no idea how many years ago it was, but I spent a couple hours doctoring this image so it could be tiled like it is without being able to see the edges. Can you see the edge? I can still see it pretty easily because I'm the one that modified it, but it is subtle.
The "wall of worry" is a Wall Street term that describes the tendency of stock prices to rise despite negative news, economic uncertainty, or political or social conditions that would suggest they should fall. The term was coined in the 1950s.
You'll know it's the top when everyone thinks it's never coming down.
2025 has just begun and already everyone is hypersensitive to any move in either direction. This is especially true with the unit bias in play at $100k, where every price point greater than $100k is intrinsically considered bullish and vice versa: every price under $100k feels like a gut punch. Meanwhile, none of these moves actually matter. We just have to wait for the real run to begin.
Wen?
Bitcoin hasn't really made a real move since November, but in that time alts got some pretty good action. Most recently our very own Hive catching a bid. Now we have some room to breathe, as it were. Will we leave behind rank #500 in the dust, or are we doomed to revisit such a low level? I must admit I am a little pessimistic considering the history of such things, but then again pessimism in a bull market that only comes once every four years is definitely not where anyone wants to be.
"Prices rise despite negative news"
This is a conclusion I came to years ago on my own when I realized that the news has pretty much zero affect on the macro market. The market is going to do what the market is going to do. The news is irrelevant but also acts as a catalyst. So the market can make a big move on this or that news; making it look like the news was the reason for the event. In reality the event was always going to happen with or without the news to justify it. We can't reverse engineer these things with any kind of certainty.
Solidly back into six figures
It really is annoying how powerful unit bias can be. Our desire for strong round numbers defies logic and reason. Bitcoin is "too expensive" because owning one costs a lot, even though we don't have to own a full one. Five figures is bearish while six figures is bullish. It's all nonsensical tricks that the mind plays on us.
It has been very nice though that even after this 10% bleed across the board that Hive itself still towers at a +60% gain on the week. Everyone else is losing their minds but for once our community is somewhat spared from the Wall of Worry that consumes these small moves that mean absolutely nothing. Of course this someone leads me to believe that Hive may continue to bleed as it often does... but that's not today-me's problem, so I won't worry about it just yet.
Time for a rotation?
With Hive being up as much as it is I wonder if I should rotate some into bags that have been floundering as of late. Currently looking at Rune (Thorchain) and Cacao (Maya) as possible candidates because they are getting absolutely crushed on the cap rankings and I believe these DEX networks have a lot of potential value. Of course maybe this is the disadvantage of having a non-hostile political party getting elected. If Trump rolls back all the crypto regulations that makes it more difficult for the decentralized counterparts to gain a foothold.
Also I don't really have any Hive to sell and firmly find myself in "not powering down" mode. The liquidity that I do have is somewhat reserved for buying back into Hive if and when it crashes into the 40-45 cent range. I've been quite blessed with my financial status in that I haven't been forced to sell crypto for months to pay my bills. That's all taken care of and will continue to be for a while, so that's nice.
Unfortunately I've been in full-on burnout mode and have taken the last month off from blogging, and every time this happens it's like waking up from a hangover of regret when I realize all the rewards and opportunities that I've missed out on... especially now that the token price is so much higher. Oh well these things happen. Time to get back on the horse.
Conclusion
There will always be a reason to worry in a market this volatile.
You can't see the forest from the trees.
Zoom out and don't pout.
I've always loved your candor.
My honest-to-a-fault antics are quite the thing.
Wish there were more like you fre.
built different
So much top calling lately. I have a mate who wishes Bitcoin vanished somehow… Don’t know how though.
I was reading a book today and something caught my attention particularly. It was something like “when even you believe there is no top” it’s time to sell.
I hope this idea sticks with me the whole bull market.
It will... it's more than that as well.
For me psychologically I'm willing to give away and gift a lot of crypto to others at the top. It's different for everyone perhaps you still remember what it was like 4 years ago... however this cycle will be magnitudes more powerful and insane.
I'm looking to buy back in at the 25-30 cent range..
nice if you can swing it
but getting sidelined is also very not fun
the image is excellent. I cant see the join, very organic looking.
im crossing my fingers for 45c so that I get to feel like I made a decent short term trade, which is a rare feeling for one such as I.
i love when i guess the pump 3 times in a row and earn 30 Hive on my great trades and than i think i will guess it the 4. time and it just double pumps 😂
3 out of 4 is damn fine work....
unless of course the 4th is the last and you hit it with an irrational YOLO.
I mostly just leave it alone. But hey, we could still be headed for 45c which will be enough for me to feel like a winner!
I realized shortly after posing the question that you can cheat just by looking at the edge of the picture.
The left and right are the parts I had to join.
Up and down were already good.
oh crap yeah, i totally see it now. theres like half a nose wedged in to a gremlins dimple. no-one needs to see that
You did a pretty nice edit on that pic
I just keep having to remind myself that we are only a week into 2025. It's definitely premature to try and guess where things are going to go from here. I just don't want to be left out in the cold come September.
Do you think 0.35 is a stable price that Hive would go back to once the price normalizes?
If we look back to 2023 35 cents was not the floor but the average.
On a very real level Hive price has never been stable.
All I can say is that 35 would be a very good place to buy the dip
yeah buying the dip is the most fun on hive since we can sit on our hbd earning 15% waiting for a dip.
Somehow I managed to get some good (and undeserved) trades and now I have some liquid HIVE again, so I would be more than happy to see some other pumps! But now that I got back my HIVE, I'm quite sure that the price will crash, as I'm usually pretty unlucky when it comes to finance & Co. 🤣
My experience with getting 3 pumps in a row like this week after week is that we shouldn't be expecting a forth. History suggests a lull is coming but we all know how irrational these markets are.
That's why I'm tempted to sell again some HIVE and buy it back when the price drops... but after so many pumps and me selling my HIVE at the "wrong" peak, I'm not sure anymore I want to take another chance!
I remember that whole "the market climbs a wall of worry" thing from way back when I was trading tech/biotech stocks in the 1990s. There was never any real reason to worry until "irrational exuberance" set in (Thank you, Alan Greenspan) and people would throw gold at a dog turd, hoping it would turn into more gold.
I'm not actually a trader, so I don't much look at this stuff, anyway... except from a "pop popcorn and watch" perspective. I prefer to back out... WAAAAY OUT and take stock from there.