So in my last post I was very much strapped for time.
And nothing has changed in this one I might only have 15 minutes to crank this out as well. Fireworks wait for no one so on and so forth. In any case I know two different people who have birthdays on July 4th, so that adds an odd dynamic to the mix.
I wished one of them a happy birthday over the phone and they randomly told me they heard about this "halving event thing" on CNBC with regard to Bitcoin. Gotta love when you get a free counter-trading signal. The last time I got one of those was during the peak of the bull market when someone that refused to buy crypto for YEARS came up to me unsolicited and asked me if I knew anything for him to buy.
I had the common sense to tell him 'no' but I didn't have the common sense to admit that was a clear sign the bull market had already peaked in 2021. I won't be ignoring this one. Free pump free dump.
The obvious counter-trade.
I've already written multiple posts about how the halving event is a huge nothing-burger that's being over-hyped to the moon. This is just icing on the... burger. To hear a no-coiner talk to me about the halving event is just magnificent. If there was ever a more obvious counter-trade that would be it.
Essentially 1-3 months before the halving event should be some kind of peak. That's how the speculation of these things seems to go down. Coincidentally that means DCA selling a bit starting in January and continuing on until the market actually starts crashing (or even into a potential dip). Speculation is speculation.
In any case my nephew was quite intrigued by the idea that this song "made money" in my last post. Should I give him a cut? Oh yeah he also wants everyone to watch him recite every country in the world in under 7 minutes. Them 9-year-olds amirite?
Today he was also watching more geopolitics on the middle east but I can't say much more than that as he was watching it by himself and I missed this one. Although there was a lot about Kazakhstan and how they don't have access to the ocean and have to transport oil through Russia while walking on eggshells being in between two superpowers (China & Russia).
Conclusion
Damn looks like my time is up again. Will be nice to get back to my regularly scheduled routine where I don't have to speedrun these posts. Will we get to wet our beak on this action? I guess we'll figure the latter out right after the year's end. Goodbye year of the maximalist: we won't miss you. Wen altseason?
I just really do not know about selling.
At some point, there will just be no buying back in.
I know it is coming, but i let myself get too scared to accurately predict it.
I can see all the dominoes stacked up... the demolishing of on-ramps and off-ramps.
Dollar pegged coins showing too much signs of scammi-ness....
I know the highs and lows of bitcoin... but just have to ride them... HODL
because my fears do not let me trade the down side.
And i am unsure it is the bitcoin-halving but that the halving happens at a market-timing-pace. So, you end up with much more affect from the market, but the only real indicator people are looking at is the halving.
Diversification doesn't need to go back into fiat.
If you think fiat is not a good hedge there are plenty of other hedges out there.
Like greenhouses, homesteading, and otherwise sustainable or off-grid living.
Of course you're probably the one to lecture me on such things.
Not the other way around.
If and when I'm a crypto millionaire you can be damn sure I'll pick up a hunk of actual physical gold as well. Crypto is all about hedging in every direction. It is the profitable hedge that allows us to diversify back out into many potentially unprofitable directions. If I leverage my crypto to hedge in a dozen different directions and all but one of those hedges is a fail then I'll still have won, as that one successful hedge is potentially life-saving for not only me but the others around me.
It's also not hard to dump fiat for whatever at the first sign that it's looks like a terrible play.
The likelihood of USD crashing to zero overnight is quite low.
Even hyperinflating currencies in developing nations are a slow-burn compared to that.
Haha... Happy birthday to them. I called a friend too to wish an awesome birthday and it ended nicely .... Maybe not😂😂.
He is just amazing. I think it is best to give him a cut. It is a win-win game. You both won!
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You must have never heard the story about what going into Iraq was all about. I didn't believe it at first when a guy came into my salon telling me the story but two nights later Ted Koppel did a two night series on exactly that. The Caspian Sea is rich in oil and Bush wanted a piece of that so the plan was to run a pipeline into Iraq, he had sent Condoleezza Rice over there so many times that Chevron named a ship after her.
Great post
Hey man, quick tip for you. I see you're new. Don't post something like "Great post" as it's a bit of a no no here on Hive. If you comment ensure it is engaging and adds some value or ask a question about something that was said...
All the best Patrick.