I think Hive starts to get interesting far before $100 that once we get over a certain threshold we could see quite a leap. At a certain price point, we could see even the weakest hands holding a higher percentage of what they get as they see the value of their RC, curation, and APR become worth more to how much they can earn within the ecosystem vs what they want/need.
I was telling a friend the other day at around $15.38 Hive my current curation rewards + HP APR would be greater than my cost of living. Naturally with the current cost of living inflation and the Hive deflation slowly happening over the long run that price will need to be higher and higher over the long run. For many, I doubt they need such a high price if they have been building at the lower Hive prices. So $100 Hive would just be insane.
I’ve had some rather interesting talks with people in the past about what if Hive price suddenly increases enough to give us the market cap of one of the bigger blockchains that they are always telling me I am missing out by not getting into. I suddenly could start making millions a year on Hive while elsewhere only a further price increase would increase my investment.
As far as games there is just not enough in development at least that is being talked about. Between 2021 Q4 and 2022 Q1 I suspect around a dozen game development projects have shut down, stopped for an undisclosed amount of time, or gone elsewhere.
The good news is they don’t even have to be Hive blockchain games to generate a net positive impact. Just hundreds of games that have small to medium size player base that visits their blogs on Hive for updates and gamers sharing their experience about the game would start getting more people in the door. Once their player bases are here they could take a look around into what else is in the ecosystem.
A lot of crypto projects just don’t want to have a blockchain blog for whatever reason unless it’s already on the blockchain they are using. It’s always so strange seeing so many blockchain games choosing centralized non-blockchain platforms that could shut them down at any moment. Once Hive hits a certain threshold and those centralized sites start banning at higher rates than they already are it would be stupid for them not to be here.
I was hoping once Steam made a stance against blockchain games and people were talking about it that more projects would seek out a decentralized place for their patch notes, and content. That ended up not being the case as far as I can tell.
A lot of non-blockchain gamers also hated the current blockchain environment. There have been some major pushbacks on the triple A side of things when it comes to how game studios have been trying to implement "NFTs." It’s just seen as scam, greedy, low quality, and burdensome by many.
There is a long way for the blockchain space to grow on the gaming side. It also adds further development time, cost, and other barriers to entry to even get in over standard non-blockchain projects. Even blockchains that are 100% focused on gaming have struggled to roll out easy of use and resources for the major game engines. Even once they do there is a major lack of education being done in the industry.
In my eyes we start seeing massive gains once we can no longer call out a couple of projects as being the major reason for growth. Far too many top 50 blockchains have just a couple of projects doing most of the lifting. They won't hold a candle to all our active communities alone. We are just not there yet in terms of mass.
That's they thing, how many will still hold their Hive on the way to $100? I would guess there will be decent amount of selling and Hive will become more distributed. I agree withe everything you said about gaming on Hive. It is always great to hear the thoughts of the top gaming expert of Hive.
Depending on how long it takes to get to $100 I wonder how many will still be the original account owner/still going solo. Just from the content side of things alone, some interesting things could take place if it ends up taking over a decade.
Taking a look at an older YouTube channel like Ashens who has been there for 15 years doing well but never really took off as a bunch of other OGs did. He never really changed either from what I can tell and it still feels like a one-person channel.
Then you have the Ray William Johnson of the world that made it and tried to sell/get someone else to do the work. My god, the Ray channel is now just tick tock shorts by someone who looks like a drugged-out Johnson. Pulls insane amounts of views in per short clip.
At some point at the very least as the price increases, more and more people are going to start having others help with their account's day to day. The hierarchy key system is perfect for that and already solves what a lot of centralized platforms still lack a proper system for. Another area Hive shines and was ahead of its time on.
The Gods On Chain Hive community is a prime example of this. The same goes for the Axie Buzz community and surely so many more to come after that.