It's time for another $HIVE TA post so let's see what we have today.
During the week I was hoping today I will see a white candle on the monthly chart, but my wishes don't count as the chart shows.
In my last week's post the monthly candle was bullish at the time of writing, but I need to mention, it was the 1st of the month, with only a few hours passed of the month. It's been a week since then and we have six consecutive bearish candles so far. The bullish (green) fair value gap (FVG) has been totally rebalanced (last month) and the current candle is sitting at the bottom of it. If the candle closes below the FVG, that means an inversion and this FVG becomes a bearish one and will serve as resistance. In that case, chances are, price is going to seek liquidity lower, targeting $0.1355 or the all time low (ATL) at $0.1015. Will that happen? No one knows, we can just hope it won't.
The plan for bullish continuation remains the same, price needs to get back to $0.2936, hold that level and continue t the upside. This is the monthly chart, which means one candle is written in one month, so such a move requires time as we're talking about a 77% move to the upside, from where we are now. It's not impossible, nothing is in this life, but quite unlikely to happen on three weeks.
I'm a liquidity based trader, not a pattern trader, but there's one pattern that I use in my TA and that's the inside bar pattern. We have a nice one here on the weekly and price right now is below the inside bar low and below the midline of the mother bar as well, which means it's more bearish than bullish. There are roughly 11 hours till the candle close, but so far it looks like we're going to have a bearish FVG (marked with red) on the weekly, which serves as resistance. In other words, price needs to close above the FVG and hold $0.1789 level. Maybe next week.
The daily chart looks a bit better in my eyes. I left the inside bar pattern on the chart, to show you the attempt of a breakout, which later proved to be just a deviation as price came back the inside the range.
Price swept liquidity on the downside and printed a bullish engulfing candle yesterday, which usually means bullish continuation. The candle we have today so far looks like a doji, with no body, which indicates indecision, but the day is not over yet, so the candle can definitely look different at the end of the day. I marked the daily bearish FVG with red on the chart, which is sitting right below the midline of the mother bar, which means, if price manages to close above the level $0.1747, then we can expect continuation to the upside.
If price manages to invert that bearish FVG, then there's nothing to stop price till the top of that big upside wick at $0.1933. But then again, Hive is a different animal and as it's not a very liquid asset, a big order can blow up everything.
The h4 chart looks like a small consolidation this week. We have a bullish fair value gap (green box) at the $0.1581 - $0.1592 area, which was tested this week on Wednesday and rebalanced. Then it was tested again on Friday and as you can see, it's holding price nicely.
I left the indicator on so you can see, price is below both the current timeframe trendline (thin purple line), which is h4 and the high timeframe trendline as well, (thick purple line), which is the daily. There's a long way to bet back above both.
Zooming in, you can see another bullish FVG on the chart, which was tested this morning and price bounced off of it nicely, but there was another FVG, a slim one (marked with red) right after the bounce, which could not hold price and it is now a bearish FVG, serving as resistance. I marked a possible scenario on the chart with a green arrow. In case price can close above the dark pink like, which is the top of the bearish order block, we can expect continuation to the upside, especially that we have equal highs at the $0.1699 level, which is in confluence with the current timeframe trendline.
Correction: the slim FVG I mention above is in fact bullish and should be marked with green as the candle was not closed at the time of writing. My mistake. Right now there's one hour till the candle close and unless it closes below, the FVG remains bullish.
If the green box (bullish FVG) can't defend price, chances are price could sweep the two lows marked with dark pink on the chart, at $0.1586 and the next below at $0.1568.
I can't finish my analysis without mentioning what to expect next week. The economic calendar is not as heavy next week as we only have two days of red folder news, but those two days will be like a real roller coaster ride as the data is important and has huge impact on every market. Let's see if they will miss these by a mile as it happens, which gives room to huge manipulation of the markets.
At the end I'd like to say a few words, my opinion based on where we stand right now.
The chart about is not technical analyses, it's just common sense, that should make sense to everyone, even if you have no clue about trading or tape reading in general. I drew a channel on the chart, which basically should mean a period of accumulation. That is a period or more than two years, in which $HIVE was moving between $0.1474 and $0.679, but at a closer look, you can see price was mostly hovering below $0.41.
I haven't been as active on Hive as before, but I still keep an eye on posts and can still see people calling for $0.1. Are we going to get there? There's no way to know. They don't know either, at this point it's pure speculation in hope of being right, then brag about it. No one can predict the bottom and those who claim they can, are just lucky.
Well, accumulation doesn't mean buying the exact bottom. It means DCA-ing in (dollar cost averaging) slowly. You can earn your stake on the platform, and/or you can buy it, up to you which one you choose, but make sure you don't miss the opportunity. If 2 years is not enough to accumulate, then ... I don't know what more I can say.
As always, this is a game of probabilities, not certainties. Also please note, this is not financial advice, it's my view and understanding of the market.
All charts posted here are screenshots from Tradinview.
If you're a newbie, you may want to check out these guides:
- Communities Explained - Newbie Guide
- Cross Posting And Reposting Explained, Using PeakD
- Hive Is Not For Me
- How To Pump Your Reputation Fast - Newbie Guide
- Tips And Tricks & Useful Hive Tools For Newbies
- More Useful Tools On Hive - Newbie Guide
- Community List And Why It Is Important To Post In The Right Community
- Witnesses And Proposals Explained - Newbie Guide
- To Stake, Or Not To Stake - Newbie Guide
- Tags And Tagging - Newbie Guide
- Newbie Expectations And Reality
- About Dust Vote And Hive Reward Pool, by libertycrypto27
Love it when you return and bless us with $Hive TA! Not enough of that out there and it is the most important token in my portfolio.
I have been buying in small chunks all along and a little more regularly below .20$. It doesn’t always feel like a great short term investment but that goes away quickly when you stake it and bask in bigger voting power when it goes up again…and it always does.
Will it hit .10$ again? I suppose it could as we have seen it before and I will buy the hell out of that! I think we will bounce off .15$ for some proven support which will get the bottom pickers into buying here.
I love the BTC Hive pair right about now!
Thanks @zekepickleman! I'm trying to do this every Sunday, even though most of the times I'm talking to myself 🤣, but I don't mind, because it's TA practice, plus I can see where we are. I'm not looking at the chart during the week, so once every 7 days it's ok and it's fun.
Excellent choice! As I mentioned at the bottom of my post, it's the best to dollar cost average in. The best would be to buy the last touch of the channel, but as no one knows when that is, DCA is the best option.
No one knows, but if you want to buy, good to be prepared.
I don' really follow the pair. Would you be interested in reading TA about it? Feel free to say no 😂 I don't mind, it's just a thought.
To be honest, it was more of a sentiment based on how high BTC is in its lifelong value compared to how close to the bottom Hive is. Any exchanges where I do my trading and TA on doesn't carry Hive and I deal almost exclusively with the Hive dexes. I really should look a little more into the wrapped BTC options here but have stuck to earning HBD and buying up power downs on the internal dex.
Thanks again for sharing your insight and expertise!
We don't want it to go to 0.10 but to 10. 😁 How are you Erikah? I stopped by to say hello and leave you a hug. Good job on the analysis.
I wouldn't hold my breath to get $10, but I'd be happy with $3.4 or a new ATH as well.
Thank you my dear friend, I'm half dead, really tired, but otherwise I'm ok. How are you?
Sending a hug to you too and wish you all the best 🤗
I'm fine, yes, thank you.
It looks like the 51850 area in BTC is not going to be pierced, if so, we may go up for liquidity in the next few days.
🤗
If ifs and buts were candy and nuts we'd all have a Merry Christmas
A favorite saying from my youth... 😂
I've never heard of it, but it's good😀
Nice Stat analysis, thank you for sharing @erikah
Your comment comes 2 minutes after I published the post, so I doubt you read it, but thanks anyway.
Yeah, I'm still reading it now while Im putting this comment and the first one.
Anyway, last two days or three, BTC dropped down by 5% and surprisingly Hive stayed strong and was not affected by the movement. What do you think happened and supported Hive that time to stay at 0.16+ price? Any thoughts if you don't mind?
$HIVE is not a liquid asset and there are no perpetual contracts to trade, only spot. This prevents cascade liquidation to happen. It's nice to see price hold but I would prefer to have perp contracts available and be able to trade $HIVE both ways.
That sounds reasonable, I also prefer $Hive to have a prep contract, I think more traders in Hive would love it if it happened. More can trade and play $Hive both ways. However, somehow it will lose being a stablecoin.
$HIVE is not a stablecoin, HBD is as it is pegged to the USD.
What I mean is its state of being unshaken while big coins are having price swings.
I'm waiting for 0.15 so that I can buy Hive again to power up on the next HPUD.😊😄
Good luck!
Thank you.😊😊
@tipu curate
Upvoted 👌 (Mana: 38/48) Liquid rewards.
Thank you!
Thank you very much @erikah you have posted again about the new analysis $HIVE TA,but I have to be honest that I am still very cloudy about this analysis method,there are some words that you mentioned in your article like "FVG" "ATL" and there are some other words as well,but behind it all I will try little by little to understand and learn more deeply how I can understand about this 🙏😊
No worries as I can explain or point you to the right direction.
FVG is the short form of Fair Value Gap and you can read about how they work or how to trade them, here https://howtotrade.com/blog/fair-value-gap/
ATL stands for All Time Low. The opposite is All Time High (ATH), which you can also see on my chart sometimes, but right now we're miles away from it.
Feel free to ask if you don't understand something :)
Thank you again @erikah, I like your explanation, of course if I don't understand next time I will ask you again, to point me in the right direction, I am very happy to hear it, because I have to be honest with you that I am really struggling on my own in the world #hive after my friend moved to an area far from where I live now, But even though I am still enthusiastic to fight here until I get a victory 💪😊
!disvovery 30
!PIZZA
$PIZZA slices delivered:
@jlinaresp(2/15) tipped @erikah
Nice job! Thanks for sharing
!luv
@erikah, @crazyphantombr(1/10) sent you LUV. | tools | discord | community | HiveWiki | <>< daily
Thanks!
can we see a hive in 0.3 in a few weeks? or we need a miracle ?
Well, I don't do predictions, I just read the charts, but considering where we are now, that would be 1x groth, so I don't think so.
well lets keep waiting and dont loss the hope in hive :D
Hey
Why did you downvote all of my posts?
@galenkp does the same and I stopped complaining but just looking at him and you’re right here downvoting my posts too
What’s the essence of Hive when I can’t make a post to my satisfaction?