After my first TA post's feedback, I decided to give these posts a go. I'm not saying I'm going to do this every Sunday without exception, but as long as people enjoy it, I'm going to do my best to share my thoughts on our native token. So let's start with the monthly chart as the month is ending next week.
This is my last week's report, you can check the evolution of $HIVE price if you missed it.
The monthly chart is really interesting. Again, there are three more days (plus this one), till the candle close, but right now price is inside a bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG). The monthly bias is bullish, till price manages to close outside the bullish FVG. If price closes below the FVG, it turns bearish and I'm expecting to sweep those equal lows marked on the chart. The upside is a bit more complex. Should price close like it is now, it can create a bearish FVG, which then would act as resistance. Should price close above the bullish (green) FVG, I'm expecting a bullish continuation.
The candle we're getting now on the monthly chart looks like a dragonfly doji candle. The missing body of the candle indicates indecision. The candle has a long downside wick, that indicates selling, which was absorbed successfully and push price where it is now. This candle comes after three consecutive bearish candles, it can signal a reversal, but we need to wait till the candle closes and next month a bullish candle to confirm that.
On a weekly scale, you can see, last week's candle closed above the pink line, at $0.222 and confirmed the bullish order bloc (OB). Although this week's candle is not closed yet, there ate still about eight hours till that happens, and even though this week's candle is a bearish one so far, at the moment of writing price is still above the bullish OB, which is acting as support. As long as price remains above the bullish OB (FVG marked with blue on the chart), we can expect bullish continuation. There are two bearish FVGs on the sell side of the curve, the first one at $0.2636, which can act as resistance. Should price close above both of them, I'm expecting a bullish continuation and price can look for liquidity at the level of $0.3852. But remember, this is a weekly scale, it takes time for price to reach that level. For those of you who are not familiar with these charts, one candle is printed in one week, so each candle means one week. In case the bullish OB does not hold, I'm expecting price to seek liquidity lower and sweep the equal lows at $0.1652.
On a daily scale, price currently is inside a bearish FVG, marked with red. Should price close below the bearish FVG, I'm expecting the bullish (green) FVG below to hold. If that bullish FVG doesn't hold price, then there's a possibility for price to seek liquidity below the bullish candle's wick at $0.2063. Should price close above the bearish FVG, the next liquidity pools are above $0.2274, $0.2334 and at the equal highs at $0.2372 and above.
The h4 chart looks good. We had some nice moves both direction. We had an upside candle with a huge wick on the 24th, that swept liquidity, rebalanced the bearish FVG, but closed below the FVG at the end. The next candle also had a nice upside wick, but could not close above the bearish FVG. Right now that red, bearish FVG is capping the market. There were several attempts, price tried to invert it, but without any success.
There's a bullish, inverted FVG below, which price bounced off of yesterday. Right now price is sandwiched between the two FVG and is right at the mid-line of the dealing range. There's still 1h to go till the candle close, so we don't know for sure, but right now it looks like a bearish engulfing candle. I suppose we're going lower, but we don't deal with suppositions, we deal with facts, so let's wait till the candle close. Would be nice to see a retest of the inverted FVG, then bullish continuation to the upside. If the FVGi can't hold price, I'm expecting a retest of the other bullish FVG lower, and the sweep of the $0.2063 low.
The h1 chart is more clear. Unfortunately the last candle closed below the FVG, inverting it, which means the FVG is serves now as resistance. Chances are price sweeps $0.2197, or the low at $0.2168. I wouldn't mind a quick wick to $0.2063, but there's still a long way there.
This week was pretty eventful. Right after I published my post last Sunday, President Biden announced his withdrawal from the next presidential campaign. This is bullish news for crypto.
Yesterday Donald Trump spoke in Nashville at the BTC Conference. He said pretty much what the crypto community wanted to hear, all bullish news of course, but market makers used the occasion to grant themselves some cheap entry. The $0.2197 wick you see on the last $HIVE chart was printed during the speech.
Next week we have four red folder days, among which FOMC and Unemployment Claims, volatility is expected, which is going to influence Hive to some extent as well, so stay safe.
Please note, this is not financial advice! It is how I see the market at the moment.
All charts posted here are screenshots from Tradinview.
Later Edit: looks like there's always something that happens after I post my analysis :)
This candle came out of nowhere and swept both high and low. We call these scam wicks, but on Hive it's just a big order. Big in terms of $HIVE I mean.
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Cool analysis and coming from someone who is a crypto fulltimer, it´s really kind of you that you share your knowledge with other people :) I just wonder why you said "President Trump"? He is not a president any more and honestly, I hope he will never be one again :)
@tipu curate 7
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Thanks @phortun.
😂 This can be confusing, so I'm going to edit it. Yes, he's not president at the moment and he has a good chance to be president again, even if we don't like it 😜
Ok, there's a custom in my country, that you give the person the title, even if they are not in office anymore, but you're right, it can be confusing.
Really? That´s interesting :) In my country, former presidents are called ex presidents or former presidents :)
Yeah, Trump´s chances of being elected again are not low, unfortunately, but I hope it won´t happen, no matter what it would mean for crypto. I really believe that the US could do better than having two senile and practically insane candidates running for what many people consider the most powerful position in the world. One of those two nuts is already out of the game so no we need to get rid of the other one. Just my opinion though :)
I agree with you on the second part of your comment and it's shocking to see two people at their age, running for president. Look around what's happening in Europe, in some countries the age of the president and the prime minister together is less than that of the US president or candidates. It's sad to see they don't want to change anything, and this goes for congress too. I suppose money and power talks, the rest are just barking. Most likely this election is already done, but maybe they will change something with the next one.
Will see. If the Democrats nominate a strong candidate, I think he/she can beat Trump.
Yes, true, but the question is, do they have one?
Will see :)
Here's my go to political site RealClearPolitics just don't pay too much attention to the polls right now because there hasn't been a lot of polling since Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee.
Thanks for the poll. However, I take it with a pinch of salt :)
Its not a poll. Its a site that summarizes all the polls out there. And I pointed out to take it with a pinch of salt. Its worth a look. The polls have already started to move.
Thanks for clarifying it. I'll bookmark it fr sure.
Thanks for being you and reacting in a measured way 😊 I love that site and probably over reacted to your comment as a dis to the site 🙄 I'm a bit of a political junkie and RCP is a good place to start anytime you are looking at American politics.
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I hope the 0.2 has been support for Hive, and the uptrend continues for this cycle, we'll see 🙏🏻
Unfortunately not, but no worries, another analysis is dropping today.
Yeah, something like that :)
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I am waiting for a move below 0.16. Wow, very good analysis. I'm seeing a lot of Smart Money here and a bit of candlestick patterns. It's very useful to understand the moves in institutional trading, yes. Candlestick patterns, I hardly look at them. In my case I am more focused on volume and what it is telling me (I may be wrong) is that there is going to be a sharp drop. I also don't like to analyse tokens. They end up following BTC.
I like your analysis, I already said it?
I didn't reply to this in time, sorry. But no worries, another one is coming today.
I hope you are ready to buy because the analysis is happening... I said in May that this would happen.
https://peakd.com/hive-167922/@nanixxx/bitcoin-landscape-week-2-may
I'm not buying. I have my long term bags since $15k - $18k. I'm trading level to level though, both ways.
👌
It is really late at night, so I am going to have to come back to this in the morning. Honestly I don't understand technical financial analysis that well, so it might be a treat for me.
I'm trying to make it as simple as possible, so I hope you understand Joe. If not, just ask as I'm happy to help.
Oh my, it looks like I forgot about this discussion as soon as I slept. Because I forgot all about coming back to read this. Bookmarking now and adding to browser bar.
Better wait for the new one Joe 😃
okay, sure will.