I'm so old that I remember when OVERpopulation was considered to be a big problem .
You say we can't trust China's numbers? Can we trust the UN's? (or any country?) How likely is it that the world population numbers are correct?
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It is true about most numbers. However, if you read the reports, like from the USG, you can usually get a sense of the trend. Yes you might have to chart it based upon seasonally adjusted (or non) numbers since they often flip flop them in the headline. For the most part, one number doesnt matter but the trend.
As for overpopulation, it was the belief 10 years ago. YouTube is full of doomsdayers who were proclaiming we are all going to starve. That might be true but not due to overpopulation but the fact the major food producer just went to war with another and the West decided they dont want anything from there.
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Russia has half our population and one fifth our GNP. I remember when every year there was a report of 'unusually poor grain harvest' in Russia and the US had to 'sell'(give) them grain so that they could survive. I suppose they overcome that minor difficulty?
regarding reports from any governmental agency. I've noticed that they tend to be backdated in order to bolster the argument of those who are in power.