HEALTHY 30% RETRACEMENTS take weeks or months to play out. Look at the charts. They take weeks... or months. I am not wrong. How fast are these current retracements happening? 2 days max. Closer to one day.
so... 30% retracement top to current bottom... 13d 16h... I would call that weeks
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
You see one retracement lasting 2 weeks.
I see two retracements lasting 2 days.
Show me where this happens in 2017.
Again, the market is trying to price in an event way too early.
No one argues that we are at least a year away from the mega-bubble.
This bubble is trying to price that in, and it will fail, as always.
I could actually show you a bunch of places in 2017 this exact thing happened... information bias seems to be kicking in my friend.
On that note, just look at this chart I keep showing you...
This is a weekly chart, and several of these pullbacks have less than 2 weeks from top to bottom.
Certainly, I won't be surprised if it works out this way...
But I think you're ignoring the obvious.
The ultimate question that must be asked:
What is the risk of exiting this market for 8 candles?
8 weeks aka two months.
What is the risk vs reward?
The risk is that the price goes x2 to $58k and then retraces down to $40k.
The gain from going bearish is retesting $20k support.
Looks like it's going to be volatile either way, so it's probably important to maintain a balanced position.
Again, I challenge you to overlay the doubling-curve on top of this analysis, and you'll see that the price bounces off it on all three of the first dips. The first three 30% retracements were fully supported by the doubling curve. That curve is at $14k right now. We have no support.
True support lies in where the biggest buyers are putting their buy orders. I can assure you that the largest institutional money isn't looking at your doubling curve when deciding where to put those orders.
Yep, you are exactly right. I've been saying this for days and weeks now, yet somehow people are failing to see the trend...
That's exactly what happened back in 2017:
Several of these were top to bottom in less than 2 weeks, and even more in less than 3 weeks.