This might not be a surprise. It's just a confirmation.
The Google Mobility Index is a good indicator of economic activity.
As the chart below shows, the mobility index plunged in March and April 2020. During this time, the world economy had slipped into deep recession.
As economies re-opened globally, the recovery has been swift. However, a second wave of Covid-19 infections in Europe has impacted the growth outlook.
With the Google Mobility Index sliding in the recent past, it seems very likely that Europe (UK included), will enter into a double-dip recession.
The U.S. might just escape with a slowdown. Recession seems unlikely since there is no lock-down. My point is underscored by data indicating the probability of recession as measured by the Treasury spread.
The Federal Reserve has already committed to keep interest rates near zero-levels through 2023. The Euro zone potential recession implies further expansionary policies.
This is good news for asset markets. Specific to cryptocurrencies, I will not be surprised if Bitcoin trades well above $20,000 in 2021.
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Find it odd that those corona waves come announced, and somehow during vacation time the cases were dropping.
Too much manipulation in the society today.
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There is always an element of doubt and suspicion.
Soon we will have the vaccines. Pharmaceutical companies will make billions.
I am not sure how effective will these vaccines be. Or how dangerous.
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I won't take any vaccine.
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@acesontop - I would agree. I will myself avoid taking any vaccine.
I can tell you that once few vaccines are launched, the governments will ask for a vaccine proof for air travel.
I am speculating, but I will not be surprised.
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I am speculating that as well. Next you have to be vaccinated to get to work, enter supermarket and so on.
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Wel with the IMF keen to have a new bretton woods this is good news, it will allow the ECB and BOE to warm up the printers the same way the fed does :) More free money for those in the know
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Interesting overview over the world economics and I must agree with you on that. Lockdown will have negative impacts if enabled in Europe, but I hope it is not the case. Bitcoin already gained some traction in this pandemic and it teached everyone that it is an asset to have and double up on gold.
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@behiver - I agree. Bitcoin, gold, silver are assets to hold. These are the currencies that are a store of value.
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Good article! It looks like the data is as of October 13. The semi-lockdown in Germany started 1st of November, so there is almost no hope that these numbers are getting better soon.
That's right. If we look at the current scenario, recession is surely coming.
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