How you should view the price of crypto

in LeoFinance2 years ago

How you should view the price of crypto.

Direct from the desk of Dane Williams.




With doom and gloom everywhere we look in crypto, I encourage you to think rationally about the price of crypto and what it really means.

Now within bear market conditions like we see in the market today, we wouldn’t be human if we didn’t see the value of our portfolio bleeding out and we weren’t bummed.

All over LeoFinance right now, we find posts showing that the price of crypto has an effect on people’s ability to earn a living from their stack.

Adrian is now looking for a job, while Belemo is contemplating his future because these prices mean having to work three times harder for three times less profit.

Watching price go down sucks for everyone and I’m certainly no different.

I wouldn’t be human if I didn’t take a look at the ungodly USD value of my crypto assets now and compare it to what it said barely a few months ago.

Fuck my life…

But in saying that, I’m here to offer a more rational way of looking at the price of crypto and consider what we’re actually trying to get out of our investment.

I want to live off my crypto investment

Just like the example posts I linked to above (and most likely you’re the same), the end goal for my investment is to be able to live off crypto.

Just casting my mind back I know that if I had sold my entire stack at the top, I could have lived off my crypto.

…for maybe a few years.

But what would have happened when the money I made ran out?

Back to working like a mug for someone else again?

Fuck that.

I’m here to build a sustainable income from crypto by investing in digital assets that will pay a consistent yield, so I can derive a passive income.

My end goal is to be able to keep my principle and pay myself an income from the yields generated on top.

FOR LIFE.

We all have a number.

We just have to do the math around our individual circumstances to figure out how big our base stack needs to be before we reach it.

The effect price has on that goal

Moving forward, this is where I want to encourage people in crypto to think more rationally about what the price of their assets actually means.

What is price?

Well, price is a purely speculative measurement, based on what the market THINKS the value of an asset is.

Market participants use future expectations, sometimes based on nothing more than emotion, to place bids and offers at whatever price they see fit.

Take the price of Ethereum for example, an asset which has been getting bent over and pumped this past week.

But has anything REALLY changed this week in terms of the network itself?

Nope.

I mean you can see in dalz’s latest look at the Ethereum network that all of the fundamental metrics used to determine whether the network is being used and functioning as intended, are all quite positive.

All that has changed is future sentiment based on risk-off macro conditions and blanket industry wide fear.

Not the tokenomics or underlying supply and demand for the asset.

All that matters is the sustainability of a coin’s tokenomics

As an investor looking to generate a full time income off their stack, this is the key.

All that matters in the end is whether the tokenomics of a cryptocurrency and the network it supports, are sound and secure.

That an equilibrium point between sellers dumping to make their income and buyers soaking up that supply to actually use the network, can be found.

If this equilibrium based on people using the network can be found, then a price floor will be maintained over the long term and you will always find a level where you can make a living off your stack.

Good cryptocurrencies with clear use-cases like Hive and Ethereum, obviously have demand to put this floor in place.

Heck, we’ve gone over what gives network tokens, social Hive-Engine tokens and even play to earn game tokens value on the blog before.

Now, I can hear what you’re saying.

Of course if we’re trying to make a living by selling the yield we earn on our assets, the price of crypto does matter.

My answer being that I agree, the price certainly matters...it just doesn't matter YET.

If you have sustainable tokenomics then sure, the floor price will matter in the long run.

But the price fluctuations that we see between bull and bear cycles certainly do not.

Final thoughts on how you should be looking at the price of crypto

As continues to be made abundantly clear by the extreme volatility of crypto, the market still has no idea how to fairly value these assets.

Remember, just because Ethereum is trading at 5K doesn’t mean it’s worth or will stay at 5K from a supply/demand point of view.

The equilibrium price may be somewhere completely different - Both lower or higher!

So stop worrying about prices in this way!

When it comes to making a living off your crypto stack, all that matters is that you can find a reason for a point of equilibrium to exist and thus print a floor price.

If you are able to, then you can happily let volatile prices fluctuate, knowing your investment will always maintain value.

You know there will always be buyers with a reason to step in and soak up the supply that you always need to sell.

If you can’t, then you’re better off putting your money on red at the casino.

At least you’ll get a few free vodka Red Bulls along the way.

Best of probabilities to you.

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Moving forward, this is where I want to encourage people in crypto to think more rationally about what the price of their assets actually means.

I remember when Covid fear hit hard, these current prices would have looked awesome. I really hope our believers like Belemo can make it through without cashing out too much. When btc hits a million USD and Hive, Leo, etc follow the upward trend, anyone able to hodl will be very happy.

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My point is that we need to stop worrying if/when HIVE will hit $100 (or whatever price we pull out of our arses).

All that matters is that a SUSTAINABLE equilibrium point between buyers and sellers can be reached.

At what price this is reached doesn't matter.

But if HIVE's tokenomics are sustainable, then all we need to do is build a base yield generating stack at the bottom of this market cycle.

Build a sustainable income here and any price rip is like a pay rise ;)

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Very true :) ... And really, unless we are trading it to build up a bigger stack, watching the price is useless.

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Agreed, crypto is very volatile and it's the fundamental use cases which matter. It is the long term which matters.

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Yep. use case means a sustainable equilibrium between buyers and sellers can be found.

Hive's being the ability to transact on a battle tested, immutable and censorship-resistant network.

With that in mind, we just need to keep building our base stack until the yield it generates during lower market cycles is enough to live on.

This is the key.

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you made a nice post. I am currently not concerned with the price. If HIVE goes down further, I think I'll go and buy a good chunk of this cryptocurrency

What is this 'lower price' you're looking for?

If you are looking to buy more off the market then surely now would be a good place to start dollar cost averaging in?

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I think Hive can go down to $ 0.30 and $ 0.22

The extreme volatility of prices is a problem in the crypto industry. Every problem can also be seen as an opportunity. Mechanisms can be created to reduce volatility. For example, the number of products such as the protocol-owned liquidity of Polycub or the fund that stabilizes the price of HBD. Also, long-term lock-in periods on investments can come in handy to help with the liquidity management of crypto entities.

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Volatility isn't going anywhere and is just something we need to learn to live with.

Focus on building a base stack that will allow us to survive during market dips.

If you can't survive in today's market conditions, then you don't have enough and you need to start stacking.

Because this won't be the last dip!

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Sometimes, I think it's the uncertainty that makes people more worried. The thought of selling everything at the top looks juicy, but you asked a very important question: what if the money runs out?

I once talked about seeing or placing sentimental value to one's asset especially when the USD value seems shitty.

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Haha there's no room for sentimental value in crypto.

All that matters is knowing that a sustainable equilibrium between buyers and sellers can be found for your asset so you will always be able to make money.

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I could have cashed out enough to live at least two years with no need of any other income if smart enough to do that. It's too late for regrets now. A bear market is not the end of the world. We'll get over it.

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But 2 years isn't enough.

Then what?

This is a prime opportunity to keep hustling and stacking the number of tokens required to see out the rest of your life.

Don't waste that opportunity for just 2 short years in the present.

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I'm not in that position yet, but when we think about living off the income generated by crypto assets, the price will matter (when you sell). If you sell regularly, you catch both highs and lows and need to have enough crypto income to live off during the low point of that income, in the bear market.

But if you sell high and keep in something stable and liquid for the crypto winters, then all you need is to have enough income in the great times to cover for both that period and the bad times. But this requires a lot of discipline (and planning).

While I did a better job last bull cycle, this is still something I wish I had have done better.

But yeah, it's always so easy in hindsight to sell the highs and buy the lows haha.

Maybe next time ;)

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Yep, we never want to let them go in the bull run, don't we? It happens to me way too much. Something I need to work on more.

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Great minds think alike, sir. This is the article a lot of people needed to read right now.

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Cheers boss :)

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It's really hard to live off just crypto and it's not a move I will be doing anytime soon. At the same time, the prices being low will definitely affect any opportunities you have. So I think taking profits during the bull market is what you need to do as an emergency fund.

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Do you have a goal of eventually living off crypto?

Either passively or actively?

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LEO is $1.
HIVE is $5.

I keep stacking as much as I can. :))

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When?

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Hopefully in about 5 years. That's the least I am expecting.

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Thanks, those are good things to consider.

I gotchu.

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Have been waiting for the past 7mouths to buy hive at 0.25 and I have save up to 10k to but at that price. That’s my balance price for hive

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10K USD will buy you a NICE HIVE stack at those prices!

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I agree with you that we shouldn't look at the bear market as a curse, sell our tokens and go home. we must never lose sight of this as a revolutionary opportunity to eut the time for money rat race .. forever .. I am not here for gains, I am here for a life changing opportunity.
Thats what drives me, makes me post, makes me read, makes me comment. It is my drive and reason.

Ethereum is such a great example, and Polycub also. Projects full of development, promise, growing and loyal communities. These are the future, and we are given the chance to be part of it. We souldn't waste this chance, but grab it with both hands and ride it hard into the future.

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I am not here for gains, I am here for a life changing opportunity.

Great way of looking at it :)

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Thanks... I think it made me miss gains sometimes, as that wasn't my focus... but it also allowed me gains in other less tangible areas.

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