On March 4th, 2023, I announced an experiment of delegation to Ecency to prove that it’s probably the most profitable (in terms of APY) delegations feasible for a newcomer who posts frequently.
Here are the results of this week’s delegation with Ecency, and following this, a legend of the columns used, as well as a bit of analysis of the week:
Legend
Day: well, this one’s pretty self-explanatory. It starts the day after I delegated to Ecency so that there’s at least 24 hours permitted for rewards to kick in. It is a value used directly in the APY calculation.
Hive Delegated to Ecency: this is how much total Hive Power (HP) I have delegated to Ecency on the provided day. It is a value used indirectly in the APY calculation.
Average Hive Delegation to Date: this is the average of my delegated Hive Power (HP) to Ecency, current to the provided day. This gives an accurate value of how much delegation has been given over time, inclusive of all rewards (from Ecency Boosts and from other sources, including posts and comments). Since this value shows contributes directly to the rewards I get from Ecency, it is the most accurate value to use in calculating APY. Hence, it is a value used directly in the APY calculation.
Hive Reward: this is how much I have earned in rewards in HP from Ecency delegations on the provided day.
Total Hive Reward: this is how much I have in rewards in HP from Ecency delegations in total, up to the provided day. It is a value used directly in the APY calculation.
Hive Earned From Boosts: this is how much I have earned in rewards in HP due to Ecency boosts on the provided day, including the votes that come as a result of following Ecency’s curation trail (this value is approximate). It’s difficult to calculate earnings from promotions, and will not be included in this calculation.
Total Hive Earned From Boosts: this is how much I have earned in rewards in HP due to Ecency boosts in total, up to the provided day, including the votes that come as a result of following Ecency’s curation trail (this value is approximate). It is a value used directly in the APY calculation.
Hive Earned From Posts: this is how much I have earned in rewards in HP from posting and is inclusive of boosts and promotions, on the provided day. While I do reinvest this into Ecency delegations, it is NOT included in my APY calculation, as it is not an earning directly due to the delegation.
Total Hive Earned from Posts: this is how much I have earned in rewards in HP from posting and is inclusive of boosts and promotions, in total, up to the provided day. While I do reinvest this into Ecency delegations, it is NOT included in my APY calculation, as it is not an earning directly due to the delegation.
Other Hive Earned: this is how much I have earned in rewards in HP from other sources (i.e. comments, swing trades, etc.) on the provided day. While I do reinvest this into Ecency delegations, it is NOT included in my APY calculation, as it is not an earning directly due to the delegation. I have also come to realize that this is the most inaccurate and inconsistent column I have – please regard it only as a very, very rough estimate.
Hive Reinvested into Ecency Delegation: this is how much Hive I have reinvested into Ecency delegations on the provided day, and is all-inclusive (since I reinvest earnings from posts, comments, etc.). Its only relevance to the APY calculation is that it brings up my total amount delegated to Ecency. That particular aspect is included in the “Hive Delegated to Ecency” column.
Hive Earned APY To Date: this is the calculated APY based on the “Average Hive Delegation to Date,” “Total Hive reward,” and “Total Hive Earned From Boosts.” This provides a fair calculation of earning which are directly due to Ecency’s rewards (in Hive and boosts), while taking into account the growing delegation and changes in rewards over time. The APY is recorded on a daily basis and will paint a more accurate picture with more time. Some initial values (after the rewards from the initial boosts come in) may be outrageously high due to boosts from preexisting Ecency points (I had >3500, which is equivalent to 23 boosts, or <23 boosts + more promotions); these are accurate values but skewed due to the small time frame. They will become more accurate and reflective of reality over time. There is also a 7 day delay in some earnings, which may further skew the APY. While reinvestments from non-Ecency sources (i.e. posts, comments, trading, etc.) may cause the APY to appear larger, using the “Average Hive Delegation to Date” as a divisor compensates for this effect, thus giving a more accurate APY that’s a result of only Ecency delegation. It is the most fair divisor to use in this calculation because it accounts for changes in delegation over time, is a direct contributor to subsequent delegation rewards, and accounts for reinvested Hive Power only after it has been delegated to Ecency.
Total Ecency Points: this is the total amount of Ecency points that I have available on the provided day. Note that I begin with >3300 points, which is equivalent to 23 boosts, or <23 boosts + more promotions. None of these are used in calculations, but rather as a tally so that conversions can be better understood.
Ecency Points Earned From Delegation: this is the amount of Ecency points that I earned on the provided day. None of these are used in calculations, but rather as a tally so that conversions can be better understood.
Total Ecency Points Earned From Delegation: this is the amount of Ecency points that I earned in total, up to the provided day. None of these are used in calculations, but rather as a tally so that conversions can be better understood.
Daily Ecency Points Earned (All Sources): this is the amount of Ecency points that I earned through other activities (commenting, voting, posting, etc.) on the provided day. None of these are used in calculations, but rather as a tally so that conversions can be better understood.
Ecency Points Spent on Boosts / Promotions: this is the amount of Ecency points that I spent on boosts and promotions on the provided day. None of these are used in calculations, but rather as a tally so that conversions can be better understood. Looking 7 days ahead to the HP earned in boosts will reveal how much the points translate into HP.
Graphical Representation
Here are some graphs to help visually represent the progress being made in this experiment. They are adapting data directly from the spreadsheet shown above, using the same legend.
In the first graph, our Y axes consist of: Hive and APY %; these are divided into data sets consisting of Hive Delegated to Ecency (orange), Average Hive Delegation to Date (yellow), and Hive Earned APY to Date (blue, and this is a percentage). The X axis is the Day, so you can follow the daily trend.
In the second graph, our Y axis consists of APY %, represented by Hive Earned APY to Date. The X axis consists of Average Hive Delegation to Date. This one’s a little bit tricky, so I’ll explain it to clear things up: recall that during the first week, I accidentally removed delegation from Ecency. This made the Average Hive Delegation to Date decrease (move to the left on the X axis); subsequently, I increased the delegation, causing it to increase, thus moving to the right on the X axis. Thus, in terms of time, the experiment begins at the bottom, where the Average Delegation to Hive is just about 100% and the APY is ~10%. Following the line to the left, and then subsequently to the right gives the proper timeline.
From this point forward, unless an accidental undelegation occurs, you can continue reading this graph from left to right, as the delegation will be increasing rather than decreasing! Please let me know in the comments whether this is at all unclear and I’ll explain further.
This Week’s Earning Analysis
Last week, I bet on an APY to date of 80-85%. So how accurate was my guess? The APY to date as of the end of this week is 82.75%. I was very accurate this time around., but Ouch! Quite a drop, but the circumstances made this understandable. Now, let’s see what happened over the course of this week:
Day 43 started with a generous 100-point tip from the always kind @melinda010100. This time I Boosted with 250 Points, so I’ll be able to claim some returns next week! I also reinvested some of my earnings back into delegating to Ecency. I also got the Ecency point rewards that came late the prior night. I’m now confident that these come in very consistently on a daily basis, even if a few hours late!
Day 44 I made another post with a 150-point Boost. I think the 15-point reward for posting got skipped this time though… maybe there’s a 24 hour limit per post? At any rate, a good amount of activity (plus Melinda’s aforementioned tip) is keeping me from draining all of my points! I may even give this one a small promotion because it’s for my community. I’m also planning another post for this week, on Day 47.
The same day I also discovered that these Ecency Delegation Posts, due to their increasingly mathematical and statistical nature, qualified for @stemsocial’s curation. That would give me a substantial increase in the amount of Hive I earn with these posts on a weekly basis, meaning I’ll be able to increase my delegation and growth in this experiment quicker. Since stemsocial earns 5% of the total (I added them as a 5% beneficiary), it’ll also benefit them, especially as my following increases over time. I promise I’ll eventually delegate to stemsocial as well, as I strongly support STEM initiatives – I just need to raise my own standing some more first. ;)
Day 45 I Boosted the post of someone who accidentally added me as a beneficiary to their post (it was intended to be for hive-140084). I decided all rewards would go to them for their generosity.
Day 47 I Boosted another one of my posts with 150 Ecency points. A busier week, as intended and promised! I still intend to promote one of my posts with another 150 Ecency points this week, and I’d like to keep myself floating above 2000 Ecency points, as there is a future post I have in mind which would benefit from a 1500 Ecency Point promotion (as you may expect, in relation to FreeCompliments). At this stage, I still have to carefully ration my Ecency points.
Day 49 I realized that my medicine-themed Motivation Mondays post on the FreeCompliments community wouldn’t get that coveted vote from stemsocial. Dang it! It’s all right, though – that was a bit of a stretch, and I wasn’t expecting it. Those votes are better relegated to stricter works.
Now I’ll challenge myself and everyone else reading this to guess the upcoming week’s APY to date. Keep these major factors in mind: 1) I posted 3 times this week and Boosted all of the posts; 2) this will be a transition from week 7 → week 8 (which directly affects the math). My guess for the next week’s APY to date is ~90%, and for the following week just about the same (will give a more accurate value guess next week!).
It should be noted that my medicine-themed posts and the Ecency Delegation Experiment posts have @stemsocial as a 5% beneficiary, and all of my posts now have a variable percentage as a beneficiary to @hive-140084 (the FreeCompliments community; these rewards will be used as a reinvestment vehicle and as a reward pool for everyone who posts and comments in the community, except for illegal content, and threads about the community!).
I hope that you’ve found this analysis informative. While it is not financial advice, it may be useful as a methodology of calculating your own returns on various projects on the Hive network.
Here are the prior weeks’ posts for further reference:
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
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@brittandjosie I (unfortunately) got the more accurate APY this time. I wish it was higher and closer to yours haha. Next week's, however, should be higher! What do you think?
Hihi no unfortunately won fair and square I will go with the same prediction as had for next week. Let’s see what will happen
Based on my current result trend, I'm getting the feeling we'll both lose lol! I'll certainly let you know on Thursday, though. At least this is a fun little gamble, haha.
Yay! 🤗
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Well, thank you kindly as always, Melinda. 😊
Hopefully these posts will get better over time, with even more analytics as my position progresses!
Congratulations @freecompliments!
You raised your level and are now a Minnow!
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