Bottom will be reached in January 2023. The main reason is Europe's energy crisis, which will be a buzz kill for the economy. The strongest indicator will be how bad the Christmas business will be. Is it going to be just terrible, will it be abysmal or is it going to apocalyptic? I think the general mood deciding about 2023 will be between will crystalize between Christmas and New Year's Eve.
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I think you're right that we can't bet on a major rebound in the remaining two months of 2022, so let's at least hope next year brings some good news.