It's too early to assume which one will succeed and which one will fail. And your absolutely right, neither one should compete against each other.
I hope both (Hive/Steem) will progress at their own path.
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I honestly hope both are successful. We are all on the same side of the establishment. However, the path we are seeing early on with Sun's actions are not very uplifting for decentralization.
That said, maybe a centralized chain will be the solution in the mid-term.