We are "living interesting times" as in what the Occidental world thought was a Chinese curse, but apparently has no identical match in the Chinese language and culture, only a few kind of similar ones. 😀 At least, that's what ChatGPT was "kind" enough to inform me some time ago when I asked.
The connotation of the saying is negative, as "interesting times" bring many changes, some of them hard to endure. The disruptions brought by the interesting times may be a net positive for the world's evolution (not always, likely), but they certainly disturb the status quo.
The year 2024, as the one that follows, are part of what appears to be a highly disruptive decade, with changes on many levels.
Before I talk about the two years separately, I'd rather take a look at the entire decade.
The decade started under the sign of lockdowns. They brought with them an abrupt shift in the work culture, from the work place to working from the distance. That brought several disruptions with them:
- office buildings start having trouble finding renters
- relocation for a new job is not an issue
- commute time disappears
- competition for jobs is global.
That's before even talking about AI and robots.
Then we have the wars. First in Ukraine, then in the Middle East. Both still ongoing, as far as I know. That brought with them new war tactics (after Russians tried to apply WW2 strategy in Ukraine, which didn't work). It turns out it's cheaper and effective to attack with a swarm of cheap drones a highly performant but expensive military equipment. Then the hybrid war got used intensely in both wars, including on 3rd parties not directly engaged. On the hybrid war side, impressive how Israel took out many Hezbollah leaders by detonating explosives hidden in the batteries of their pagers. Russians also created a new intercontinental hyper-sonic missile which allegedly can't be stopped by any Western military equipment. Will we have a new arms race? Looks like it, unfortunately... But enough about this.
We could say this decade is also under the influence of blockchain technology and cryptocurrency, but that only started to be brought center stage recently with the support received by Trump. We will see where this leads.
Unlike blockchain and crypto, AI got pushed to the masses quicker and more intensely. Luckily, there seems to be a natural marriage between blockchain, crypto, and AI (agents) in certain fields.
We have seen an explosion of AIs through LLM models since ChatGPT version 3. Their limitations is on qualitative data and compute, but looks like both can be overcome. For data, there is the possibility to create synthetic data, or a different approach to the problem. Compute limitations are getting tackled as we speak, by optimizations of to the existing infrastructure. One Chinese company has this focus on optimizing compute, and their inference cost is 5x less than ChatGPT for the top models, if I remember well. Their top model is in top 10, but I forgot how it's called.
With all the popularity of LLMs, there is another type of generative AI that is getting attention lately: LQM (large quantitative model). These models are not based on pre-existing data, but rather on base concepts and how they assemble together, their relationships. Very good type of models where precision is crucial, like in mathematics, engineering, physics, chemistry, biology, medicine, etc.
Source - Do you check family albums on holidays? We do... Of course, many of them are in digital form nowadays...
Both AI and POW blockchains will drive a revolution in energy that will most likely start to happen in a big way in the next few years, this decade for sure.
AI (particularly LQMs) will also speed up many research processes (we are talking years instead of decades).
There will be massive job losses to AI and robots, but looks like others will be created as well. Completely different from the ones displaced, most often.
I'm not sure if we will have significant quantum computing at scale by the end of the decade. But you never know when there will be a breakthrough here as well that changes things radically.
It's interesting... We seem to be very aware of the disruptive times we live in nowadays. I don't think we realized that as much when smartphones started to spread. Or even earlier in the dot com bubble. Most people didn't realize it was a bubble then, by the way.
2024
2024 was under the sign of inflation (higher prices), AI (LLMs), elections, and raising crypto (bitcoin, in particular) to the level of US presidential race. For crypto, we had Bitcoin ETFs, with much smaller impact Ethereum ETFs, generally a direction toward mainstream and abandonment of the "alternative" narrative, the first time when BTC makes a new ATH before the halving, and a huge rally after Trump's victory.
Stocks have also made impressive highs, perhaps as a refuge from inflation. But if that's the case, that also means that they are inflated more than they should, at least some of them.
2025
I think there will be two parts in 2025. Before and after. Maybe even a more complex situation. I imagine the "before" part as being bullish, and the "after" part as bearish. It might be that the bearish part is pushed toward the end of the year, but there are many things at play. Trump, through what he does, is a key player in how 2025 will go in many domains.
I'm curious how his relationship with Elon Musk will go in 2025. They are both stubborned, Musk likes to be in the center of attention, and Trump won't allow anyone to overshadow him.
Final Words
In the end, I'd like to wish you an inspired 2025 for your investments, but especially may it be a healthy and warm year alongside your loved ones! Happy New Year!
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If you look at stocks, just 10 stocks drive the majority of gains in the S&P. The fiat world is wobbling big time under the strain of storing value, escape government theft.
Before COVID, I had a goal to work only remotely and now this is pretty much standard if you want it. Despite how bad COVID was, some positive disruption came from it.
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Yeah, I noticed that S&P growth is pretty much driven by tech giants.
Regarding the disruption after Covid, I agree, but I don't think office building owners feel very happy about the new trend.
These are strange times. AI tech will be disruptive in the next few years, but I think a lot of the things like image generation are just a distraction. Quantum computing may have some scaling issues, but is likely to improve. When it starts cracking actual encryption then we really need to worry. Crypto should be using algorithms that are less vulnerable.
The US is in for more years of chaos and the world will get some impact. We need good leaders in these times, not 'celebrities'.
Stay well.
This sounds more accurate than "interesting times".
Still a way for AIs to improve, especially for pattern recognition.
I agree, but I think they haven't reached that point AI has reached where progress is exponential.
Even in this case, the places capable of doing that will be very limited at first, and they will probably focus on high-prize targets. But eventually, becoming quantum-resistant would need to be every network's goal, including blockchains.
Good leaders are kind of in short supply recently. They devolved, much like the society. To be honest, I don't think we had less chaos since 2020, but we will see if Trump will make us regret those days or not. Overall, I think we've had and will have pretty chaotic 2020s.
Trump is driven by selfish emotions rather than any real ideology. For all his faults, Biden is a politician who knows when compromise and cooperation are needed. Adding Musk to the mix is a recipe for disaster, but I expect Trump to get fed up with him grabbing the attention. Whatever happened to Vance?
Probably he knows "his place" when it comes to Trump, unlike Elon Musk. 😄
I tend to agree that Trump doesn't really have an ideology.
One of Biden's faults was that he couldn't see that he was finished, and that HE didn't beat Trump, an entire system did.
They need to know when it's time for someone else as it's a demanding job. Biden's stubbornness cost them dearly. So we get a guy who's old and crazy instead :(
Politicians are just people and have the same faults as the rest of us. They are not all corrupt or stupid as some make out. It's been made about personality rather than policies now and that is not good. The UK has not gone quite as far that way yet, but obviously certain forces are keen to nudge us off course.
Certainly agree with this. The focus of discussions have shifted from what is important to what's... cool. Maybe it comes from the focus of new generations...
I think we can only wait to see if Trump and Elon agree. In any case, Elon doesn't have any official position so he can get kicked out at anytime. From what I see, its more like a bunch of suggestions rather than anything official.
Is he the head of DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) together with another guy?
Yes. He and Vivek are the people heading that department, but it's not an official position so it can get canned at any point.
I'm afraid you lost me (or I don't understand how the US Administration works). I know they don't have an office, or something like that, from what I heard. Does that mean they actually only have an advisory role, rather than having any power of decision?
From what I understand, their position is more of an advisory role because it didn't get approved and passed by Congress. I don't think they have any actual powers to cut spending but they can pass their findings over to Trump and he can do it the official way.
I see. If they don't go through Senate, they are definitely under Trump (or someone else, but I doubt it) as advisors.
It is true that we are living in times of great change and adaptation, I wonder how this will affect our lives in the near future, sometimes it gives me some terror with all the advances in technology that can be used for good or bad.
I also used to think about the potential use of tech in bad ways. But... we can't really influence that. What we can influence is being ready for it. Understanding it, adapting to the new world we live in. That is a challenge in itself, but at least it keeps us from imagining all the bad scenarios that may or may not happen.
Living in interesting times indeed! Keeping up with all that's happening and how it connects to everything else seems harder to achieve with each passing year. It also seems that the disruptive changes could ramp up in 2025 with interesting new dynamics. I'm personally betting big on crypto making more progress in becoming mainstream. I think the timing is right and the conditions seems favourable.
Happy New Year to you too! Thank you for all the support and the knowledge I've gained from reading your posts. May the odds be in your favour this year, especially in terms of investments ;)
Yep, the world has sped up much more than any one person can follow. And with the availability of information nowadays, we can easily be overwhelmed.
Crypto is most likely going mainstream, but also less "rebel", referring to the title of one of your recent posts.
Happy New Year! It has been a pleasure supporting you. I wish I could also reply more often... Thanks, it's an honor to be able to provide some knowledge into this space and maybe others. Let's hope we take the right decisions in 2025. If we do, it should be a fantastic year, investment-wise. At least that's how I feel about it...
Right. I've even read somewhere recently that the previous advantage that crypto had in regards to the 'rebel' connotations is gradually disappearing. I think it's for good reasons, evolution is happening, and the more mainstream crypto gets, the better it is for a broader set of people.
I have the same feeling more or less, read a recent post from builderofcastles that OMEGA candles(instead of god candles) are ahead of us :)
That's an interesting perspective on 2025.
It does feel like a year that could have distinct phases, with so many variables in play.
The dynamic between Trump and Elon Musk could definitely be a fascinating one to watch, both are such dominant personalities, and you're right, neither likes to take a backseat.
It might even lead to some unexpected alliances or clashes.
The way their actions ripple across different industries and domains will be worth keeping an eye on for sure.
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I certainly hope they don't end up at each other's throats. It might end up badly, particularly for Elon Musk.
A few words on these statements about the "new unstoppable hypersonic missile" - as I've seen confusion propagating a lot in the virtual space.
First of all, in general, ballistic missiles are hypersonic - they go to high orbit where in the absence of friction they can travel with a lot of speed, and fall on target super fast in a very short time. You know, even the Nazi V2 was about Mach-5 (match-5 is where the hypersonic definition starts).
When the times were good, the US and URSS negotiated treaties to prevent the deployment of intermediate-range ballistic missiles - you know, on short distances, there's no chance to self-destroy in case of an erroneous launch - and these missiles are capable of flying nuclear warheads.
Both US & URSS (Russia included) have intercontinental ballistic missiles that are rated above 20-25 Mach speed. What is new with Oreshnik is that it's bringing back intermediate-range missiles into the game and it's nothing else than an upgraded (in fact a downgraded) version of the RS-24 Yars intercontinental missile). Speed is not difficult to achieve with ballistic missiles, but accuracy - and this is not known for the new missile...
I would call it an aggressive move, and not a differentiator.
Well, this is one more reason why I love Hive. Frankly, I didn't know all the details you provided, only the propaganda line circulated on this subject that most people hear. Never was curious to dig more into it. Thanks for providing the context. Sometimes, context makes all the difference.
I feel Donald Trump and Elon Musk should do something great in 2025
Let’s see how things go
If Trump doesn't kick Musk out... We'll see how things go. And we'll see if Elon Musk's business mentality will work in administration.
Happy New Year! :)
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