I honestly think that we're NOT on the top yet. But that we do have an extended cycle. I wasn't here in 2017, but I'm told that in the 2017 bull run there were 13 drops from 30% or more! Did we have that yet? 13 huge drops from 30% or more? I don't think so, but then I have to say, I didn't count them, and sure not calculated them.
But look at it this way, the 2013 bull run from halving day to top was 300+ days, in 2017 it took 500+ days to do the same. This leads to thinking that this bull run will need 700+ days from halving day to top. And if you count 700+ days from the halving day forward ... you'll end up in 2022, somewhere between January / September.
This theory is not what I have thought out, I have to credit 360_trader on Twitter for that, but to me, it does make a lot of sense! Especially when you look at what the price of Bitcoin was in 2013, there was so much less capital required for Bitcoin to go parabolic, in 2017 it was more, but by far not the same as it is now. You honestly can not expect a market to grow that exceptional in a short time. But that's my opinion ... yeah, as we all know ... I'm not specialized by any means.
So I could be very wrong here, and maybe we did have the top ... All I know is that I'm not selling anything now either.
Yeah, i agree, the cycles are getting longer. i have a feeling Feb will be it but that's a pure guess. lol