Very interesting to read your post considering I longed for many of the same reasons and now closed my position.
Good point about the decreasing volume meaning that less capital is required to move the market, I didn't think about that.
You said, "On the top resistance line, we see 4 clear touches so far. The more touches something has, the less likely it is to break."
As I understand, the more times it touches the resistance, the more the bears get exhausted and run out of fund and the more likely it is that the resistance will break.
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I'm mostly going by what I'm reading/hearing myself and what makes sense. When it comes down to the low volume making it easier to move the market I guess it's most important for fakeouts as you want to see some volume behind moves first to avoid getting stopped out by those.
Exactly. Also when you take it to the extreme, If something managed to hold 100 times it's far more likely to hold the 101st time compared to something that managed to hold 3 times not breaking the 4th time.
Looks like it broke to the downside and exactly hit the green longer term resistence line. That might turn into support.
TA is quite fun, I still have a lot to learn though but I like the process.
"Also when you take it to the extreme, If something managed to hold 100 times it's far more likely to hold the 101st time compared to something that managed to hold 3 times not breaking the 4th time."
Interesting thought experiment. I'm curious what leads you to make that conclusion? From my understanding, a support is strong if it holds 2 or 3 times but anything more than that and it becomes weaker and weaker (especially assuming smaller bounces from that support every time).
I'm just trying to connect my own logic so far and learn from what I'm reading and seeing myself, It could indeed be that support gets weaker after 3 times. Experience is one of those things that will be key and that really takes time. So far I'm really enjoying the entire TA game.