I know a lot of people in crypto believe eventually people will turn on the banks and usher in the crypto era. A recession or worse could certainly hurry that up but that's not what I want to talk about here.
Unless there's an absolute collapse -which would likely bring down crypto's infrastructure anyway- the size of the group who moved over to crypto wouldn't have us reach the mass adoption tipping point.
However, something is happening right now that is going to push it further and that will accelerate in the face of a recession.
Luxury brands are falling all over themselves to accept crypto.
It makes a lot of sense right? There are a lot of people who have gotten rich on crypto and if you're Gucci, you want to validate those new rich beliefs by making it a point to accept them and what they believe in.
Not just say we accept crypto now, but make a big deal of it.
But what does this have to do with a recession?
Believe it or not, recessions are usually pretty good for luxury brands. Mostly because they know their customer so well and they know what levers to pull when the pocketbooks get reined in.
Recessions are a time when people reconsider what money means to them and so brands that revolve heavily around wealth often use these times to reinvent themselves which pulls those customers in and sets the tone for those brands for the next economic bull run.
Last time it was social media and marketing their heritage. What's their trick this time as we edge closer to possible recession? Move away from heritage toward embracing crypto, tech, and the future. Bring in the new rich customer. Give them something in the real world to spend it all on in a conspicuous way and again, affirm their beliefs in the new vision of society and the tech that brings it in.
The art houses are already heavily into digital art and the metaverse. Nike is selling $500k pairs of digital shoes. Celebrities are embracing the apes. Luxury brands will bring it fully around because:
Crypto is the new black.
OK but who cares right? The whole point in luxury is that it sets the luxury shopper apart from the rest of the masses. By definition this doesn't matter for mainstream adoption.
What luxury goods makers are saying though is crypto is also a luxury good and it is to be associated with luxury. And if we think about it, while there certainly are ways crypto is helping the poor and underbanked, to be able to trade crypto and NFT's in most of the world is a luxury.
But Crypto isn't a $2000 pair of shoes you have to be really wealthy or really irresponsible with credit to afford. It's something anyone with any savings can jump into but which has the ability to be branded.
Crypto is being pulled into what could be considered the modern "court culture".
And what do trendy people do? They mimic the court as publicly as they can until its normalized.
The fact that crypto is both accessible and associated with modern court culture is the most likely catalyst to catapult it into the mainstream with both consumers and other retailers and do it in a way that will cause normal people to want to participate.
I know a lot of people who have been waiting for retailers like Walmart to accept crypto because they felt like that would usher in mainstream acceptance but honestly, what non-crypto person was going to open a coinbase account and buy eth or whatever just because Walmart would now take it? They would just keep using their credit card like always.
Even the crypto people who want the big retailers to accept it would most likely not use it at a big box retailer because they don't want to spend their crypto.
But what if spending crypto becomes a status play?
Status is the driving force behind most of what people do. Attach something to status and it will become revered or stigmatized, chased or repelled depending on whether its status positive or status negative. People do silly and ridiculous things if they feel they can elevate their status even for a moment by doing it.
Status is almost always what mainstream adoption of anything is about.
I mean, your granite countertop is ugly but do you care? Nope. Because status.
And of course to spend crypto people have to know something about crypto. They have to be involved in it in some way. They'll probably start thinking about how you can make money in the space. THey'll probably look to other signs of status like having the right NFT. They'll probably get all self-righteous about web 3 and its many missions.
Oh and yes, there will also be a group of people who adopt it because they get a new found hatred for banks. Could you imagine a new Occupy Wall Street but this time with way more access to social media and their own tokens and NFTs?
That's adoption by the conspicuous rich, adoption by the trendy, adoption by the retailers, adoption by the crazy far right, and adoption by the crazy far left.
It's coming and it's coming soon.
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I see it hurting adoption really. Less people with revenue they can do without and more tightening of money to necessities which would require a bank still.
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This seems like more of an investment standpoint to me.
I'm referring more to the cultural side. All spending and investment will decrease in recessions by definition but high end spending habits often precede the recovery and mimicry of those high end spenders are usually where we acknowledge the green shoots of recovery.
More people taking vacations, renovating houses, new car sales, department stores being chosen over Walmart and Dollar Stores, etc.
When the high end trends start returning its usually the first indication of a recovery and those trends usually tell us what the recovery is going to look like culturally. In this case, the mimicry that sets the tone will likely be spending crypto for status which means greater investment and more real adoption instead of the novelty and speculative adoption it enjoys today.
Hopefully we'll stop hearing about how early we are lol
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Agreed, I have been saying for years that a recession will likely be needed for crypto to decouple from the stock markets movements and become more stand alone.
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You are so right about this. But the Gucci thing sounded so weird when I first heard it. Most reach people cannot pull off that look lol. I see lot of poor people aspiring for just one Gucci thing to elevate their status. I'm noticing more shoes in LA stepping off buses lol.
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It took me a minute to process it also !LOL
But once I did it made so much sense.
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I feel like a lot of the really really rich people I know are spending like it's going out of style, while the poor people I know are starting to freak out. It seems like we might be headed for some type of incident in the near future. Legacy capitalism is going to resist and people are going to blame each other. I hope we don't see bloodstains on Gucci shirts.
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I'm hopeful we can avoid the bloodshed too and further I hope crypto helps let off some of the steam.
One of the things we saw in the last recession was a refinement of style for this very reason. No one wanted to walk around with big block letters on their shirt telling people they are rich like they did in 2007. But after the longest bull market in modern history people are in full clown costumes pushing that wealth and conspicuous consumption out there.
The theater will get pulled back but the ideas will still be out there.
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I have a friend who just bought another mansion and has 20 car hyper car collection worth many millions. I always tell him that I hope he's not driving one when the pitchforks come lol.
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lol That's clown wealth if I've ever heard of it. I just can't even imagine. A few weeks ago me and my wife were talking about what we'd do if we ever became rich. We both had just a few things we'd buy that probably didn't come to $500k total. Mostly all functional stuff. And then it was just hang out with each other and enjoy life.
I'm guessing that friend will be just as conspicuous with his wealth no matter what's going on. I wish them great joy :)
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I agree with you wholeheartedly but strangely I personally know several billionaires and some that are close. Most don't flaunt but their housing certainly doesn't hide anything. I don't think I'd buy more house than I could clean and I'm most likely a condo guy. I noticed that in Los Angeles there are gangs targeting people based on this. It briefly made the news but not much talk about it anymore.
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The Nft industry is bloated and sometimes I hate it's influence on crypto. Well as for adoption, yeah, many are hoping crypto can be adopted by using it to shop and other use cases, you raised a valid point by asking how many people would get involved with crypto because they Walmart or any other shop is accepting crypto. It's a reality we mostly haven't encouraged
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The NFT PFP industry is weird. It is bloated in a way but I was reading something from coinbase the other day that estimated only 2.1 million people in the world actually own an NFT.
I'm not sure if that was just eth based or everything.
NFT ownership is so concentrated and the wealth thats come from these projects is just a few thousand people who hold all the cards pumping and dumping on the new people while deciding what will be premium and holding it.
I like algorand NFT's and while millions of dollars are trading hands per month, there are fewer than 2000 people actively trading them. So again its super concentrated.
But if you believe that the digital future is coming and ownership and identity will be important, then it's a given that one day soon 2.1 million people will be hundreds of millions/billions.
Now whether supply will multiply just as fast as new people can enter remains to be seen. Most likely, the people buying trash and consoling themselves because they are early will be disappointed as supply continues to expand faster than new people can enter and old projects are forgotten.
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(7/10)@josediccus, I sent you an on behalf of @imno
thanks for sharing!
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honestly I feel like mass adoption is basically here, the people that are still dragging their feet to dip their toes into the crypto space need time and education. all the marketing and public imaging is already taking place. I feel like most people think they need a successful crypto friend to hold their hand and walk them through how to get started, the idea is maybe intimidating. anyway, respect for your thought trail.
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I don't know. I bought my first crypto 5 years ago. To this day I've never made a single purchase with it that isn't crypto related like an NFT or swapping for another crypto because I was speculating on price.
And when I did my taxes for last year it was painfully obvious we don't have the structures in place for actual crypto spending and tracking on a neat enough scale to make it worth it. At least not for the US tax code.
I'm not seeing the day to day use that I would consider mass adoption in either financial transactions nor blockchains enhancing mainstream company operations.
Not in the US or Mexico where I currently am at least.
I think knowledge of crypto is a different thing. I think most people know that crypto exists now and that's a great start but thats not my definition of adoption.
Do you have a different experience? Are people using crypto where you are for more than speculation on a mass scale?
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no, you're right in that. the only thing that i know of that people in my real life use crypto for is gaming, but that just furthers your argument.
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It's coming. I think we can all agree on that much
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that's right, and all of us that are already hodling will benefit the most
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I think the adoption from Africa and people trying to pull themselves out of poverty will drive crypto adoption. Why hold a worthless piece of fiat when I can hold some crypto that gains in value and provides me with a nice return!!
Necessity is the mother of all inventions.
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How does African adoption push adoption to the rest of the world who don't have the same needs?
In pure numbers. The number of people adopting it will outweigh other regions.
I don't know. There's a lot standing in the way there. The entire continent has roughly the GDP of Italy. And while there are about 1.3 billion people, 70% have never been on the internet even once while many who have don't have a steady or regular connection.
The hopes are that they can get universal internet connectivity by 2030 but that doesn't mean you'll have 1.3 billion people actually using it by then or anywhere close. I'm thinking it happens elsewhere first.
They only need a mobile phone and nearly every adult has one. I was thinking not just Africa tbh, but also other countries with people living below the poverty line. Once they see friends and family gaining wealth by using crypto, it would be a no-brainer for them to easily adopt it also.
However, there are many challenges and you make some good points.
I think too many companies are involved in Crypto as we can see from this crash it was ONE tech company that had a decent holding of BTC and they have crashed the market through FUD because of a looming interest rate rise.
It won't be free of this until the corporate elites stop playing games. I hope everyone has learned from the current market crash and the risks associated with it.
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Hopefully one day. Not holding my breath on the corporate elite stopping the games though.
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BTC being accepted at grocery stores will bring the boom.
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That turkey pot pie will certainly taste better when bought with sats
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The crypto ecosystem has a pretty big future, unfortunately my timing is terrible. In August 2021, I entered Splinterlands, mainly investing above $0.50 and buying more. I am quite bullish on SPS, I currently hold 37,500 SPS, and I am slowly learning.
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I'm putting together a post on this right now because while I entered Splinterlands in March 2021, most of my investment happened when it was ramping in July and August. One of the good things though is I just hit 70k SPS and think I'll hit 100k by the end of the airdrop. That means all SPS have to do is get to $0.50 and I've covered the $50k I put in.
Hoping beyond hope that the validators do their job and make SPS valuable.
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I think I might be dry on some of these haha
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I hope that it won't become status play. There are many good grass roots initiatives and developments working already with crypto. Maybe if fashion houses develop their own tokens will status come into it.
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Investing is a status play. If you're a bitcoin investor or an Eth investors, theres a status that comes along with that. Crypto people are some of the most public investors there are. So many of us out there talking about our bags and comparing them. Hive is all about getting the people with the biggest bags to like you. That's status.
But currently most crypto is just speculative investments. Most of it doesn't do much. I'm just saying that in the same way status got people to invest in it and be interested, its now going to be the catalyst to get people to want to spend it.
It will be pretentious for a little while but in the long run I think it's a positive because it's going to bring way more people into the space. If anything its just going to make it seem more accessible to more people faster.
You're right, people will follow what higher media status folks do and will come into the fold. There are tens of thousands of coins and tokens out there that have been created just for mining. To me, that's just a waste of time and diminishes their status.
Thanks I just checked it out. I think we have different perspectives on adoption. With me growing up in the US there's no real need to transact in crypto. So the mainstream adoption of spending in crypto is something that requires some psychological reason to do it with some very limited exceptions).
It sounds like in Venezuela spending in crypto opens up avenues for better services and so there are built in reasons for adoption.
The more all people adopt crypto all over the world, the more we will be able to transact with each other as people. That's something I can't wait for.
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