Nobody can be fully right about the markets. The best we can do is take into consideration the facts and predict what will happen. I find that I am less worried when I have created a plan before I make a trade even if it's for the long-term. Also it's never wrong to take some profits but I would avoid just a few pennies.
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You're right, we definitely cannot be right at all time, but we can create necessary conditions and environment that might at least change the narrative to some extent. At the end of the day, we get lucky as a result of the level of input or risks we're willing to take.
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