I think it's hard to predict anything. I don't blame people for guessing though because that is one way to validate their own beliefs. It helps them hold onto their crypto, but if it doesn't come true, they better be able to adapt.
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You're right, it's hard to predict. This cycle hasn't been predictable and many people are using this to actually do their own predictions based on what they feel and think. I think anyone has the right to actually plan based on what they deem right.