Based on past patterns bitcoin is very likely on the verge of its next parabolic bull market rally
In a previous post I mentioned what bitcoin would do if it simply repeated the same price action as previous halvings.
This is neither expected nor likely, however, as I mentioned in the post it is certainly possible that the resulting price action after the 3rd halving at least rhymes a bit with the first two.
More about that can be seen here btw:
So, now that we have an idea what bitcoin might do if it were to repeat the past patterns when might this massive move and eventual peak actually happen?
I'm glad you asked!
Simply taking the average length (and returns) of the past halving patterns, we can get an average for what we might see this time around.
Again this is all hypothetical and based on past patterns, there is no guarantee this time around offers similar results.
Thus far though we are right on track...
So far bitcoin is trading basically right where it should be based on the averages from the previous two halvings.
Check this out:
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If history were to repeat in a similar fashion to the first two halvings we would see the following...
- $41k by December 31st of this year
- $100k by April 18th of 2021
- $387k by May 12th 2021
For those astute observers, if bitcoin were to follow the average returns of the first two, we would be looking at a return of roughly 36x from current prices.
Seems crazy I know, but hey that's what happened the last two times, on average.
Will bitcoin come close to repeating these types of returns on these dates, I honestly have no idea.
The good news is that we only have to wait roughly 9 more months to find out.
For most people reading this that have been involved with bitcoin and crypto since at least 2017, waiting another 9 months seems like a cake-walk compared to what they have been through.
Personally I don't think bitcoin will get anywhere close to that number within the next 9 months, but I do think it can go up a decent amount over the next 18 months.
In fact, I think bitcoin can get very near $100k by the end of next year.
While that may sound like a far cry from the $387k mentioned above, it's still roughly 9x the current prices in just over a year.
Not many places you can get a 10x on your investment in a little over a year.
Stay informed my friends.
-Doc
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How high can we expect ETH to go?
Good question. I don't follow ethereum as closely as I do bitcoin though I would imagine if bitcoin gets to any of the above posted prices, ether will go a lot higher than it is currently. My biggest question is what will the price of HIVE be???
If hive could only reach the 8 dollar that Steem once did, I'd be happy already
Yep, that would be pretty awesome. Personally I'd be pretty happy if it could just back to a dollar. :)
More realistic view.
How is this more realistic? It is simply showing what both halvings did using today's price. The one I posted was the average of the two. Are you saying the 2016 model is more realistic?
More realistic would be $21k-$43k.
For the peak?
yeah.
If that were to happen it would mean this post halving rally was different than every previous post halving rally plus it would mean the stock to flow model goes out the window, a model that has been right over 90% of the time to date.
I might not be sure of the exact figures BTC will hit in terms of price but I do know that it will surpass it's current high in no distant time.
There's tendency that it will copy previous halvening pattern. I'm still closely watching the markets
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Based on past halvings it should make new highs before this year ends. Do you think it will?
I think it would clock 20k$ this year!
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We can hope it keeps that average! We are definitely in a different time and circumstance than the first two halvings. But, I can't imagine the external factors would help/hurt too much to sway averages. Great share!
Yes I agree. I think we are more likely to repeat a similar pattern to what we saw in 2016 than what we saw in 2012. That would mean the peak comes later in the cycle and doesn't go nearly as high. $100k is a number that keeps popping up in my head.
Yes, $100k seems to be on most people's radar... and for the stock to flow they are predicting near $250k. I'd guess those two before as high as $386k... but it would be amazing if true!
Those numbers seem somewhat crazy when we are sitting here having trouble breaking $12k, but I guess when FOMO takes over, crazy things happen.
Very true!
So many factors come into play, world economics, acceptance of cryptocurrencies by large corporate players, fiat going down the drain, world GDP after covid has rocked the boat....
We can only hope firm footing is found, does not have to escalate like end 2017, followed by bottom falling out due to FOMO and greed.
Nonetheless interesting to watch growth, security and changes happening before our very eyes daily!
Yep, exactly. These models exclude all of that. That being said, charts simply are a reflection of all the buyers and sellers and their reactions to news events and with these halvings they do have some patterns that have tended to repeat thus far.