Having personally experienced firsthand two full bear markets and just months away from my third all time high in Bitcoin, I thought I would time this cycle better than before and come out in profit with my cryptocurrency investments.
This post is my captain's trading log entry for the diary, since keeping a trading journal is apparently healthy.
In previous cycles I spent a lot more time day trading. This time none of that. It's probably due to being older, hopefully wiser, with less energy or greed. Not as desperate or hungry for profit. It's not as new and shiny anymore. Aware that it takes too much time and focus, which at this stage in my life near retirement, I'm using for other things.
Nevertheless, trading is going on. Past cycles suggest that we're now well into the bull stage of the crypto market, after the Bitcoin halving, and so my buys occurred last year Dec and early Jan primarily. I'm hoping to see my bags pumped during this next few months of 2025 as we head toward the next all time high for the four year cycle.
But somethings going very wrong. This time is different. Yes massive pumps have occurred in December 2024 recently. However, the supposed bullish first quarter 2025 is currently majorly bearish. Perhaps it's just a slight retrace before the next leg up.
Another concern is that the hot sector or narrative keeps shifting. First it was memes, so I bought some meme coins. But then it quickly switched, as AI exploded onto the crypto scene. So I sold as much meme tokens as were not underwater, which was half of them, and bought AI coins.
Then AI pumped and I was in profit. But within days the AI sector was crushed by a China black swan release of AI competitor Deepseek at 90% cheaper. AI coins dumped 70% since the top on average. As did meme coins, to be fair.
Not only that but overall market liquidity had dried up. Not even the Trump USA pro-crypto push is stimulating what should be peak bull market season.
One suggestion is that because of the new ETF era of Bitcoin, most capital is flowing into institutions like the villain Blackrock, and therfore unable to trickle down into altcoins as it used to in past cycles, thereby pumping alt season.
This time is different and alts are not keeping up with Bitcoin. Also there are too many altcoins now compared to past cycles, causing dilution.
So at this stage in the trading cycle I can report in my diary log that my good ideas and strategy was not enough, research not enough, timing was not enough anymore.
Adaptability to a fast changing narrative is more crucial this time to make the best trades. Focus on utility not sentiment alone. The top few alts will do well, but not all anymore.
Taking profit after a big pump is more important. In other words day trading is preferred, not hodling. Just see how each time is different. Some of my so called well timed buys went into massive profit, only to round trip, but to the fibonacci retracement of 0.618 but all the way back to the original base of the pump. Very strange.
Also, I should have kept to the original strategy from seven years ago - stay Bitcoin heavy. But no, I've gone full degen and maxxed into alts and thus my portfolio bleeds now.
There's still a few months left until the annual peak around April, then the dip and perhaps a last leg up Sept Oct. That was the classic cycle of past years. With a different playing field now, I'm uncertain.
One thing is sure, I still check Tradingview charts daily, watch prices like a hawk, but no longer like a sniper. I'm feeling wealthy enough at this stage in the journey, despite the current underwater portfolio. Don't quit your day job.
And at this stage in life, spending time in nature, with loved ones and in meditation, is more important. The prices and market can sought itself out. I'll wait it out.
Image: pixabay
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