CubDeFi money is moving around a lot these past few days. The final 'halving' is less than a day away, but people aren't waiting around for the supply cut to get in on positions for the expected CUB moon.
There has been a trickling of stake out of the CUB farms and into the CUB den as a result.
It's taken a few days, but there has been a 'flippening' in the amount of USD liquidity staked in CUB farms and den. I recall last week, the CUB farms were over or near 2,000% APR and the CUB den was around 600% or something, with around $1.8 million (or was it higher at $2 million?) and $800,000 respectively, or something like that (I should have been taking screenshots every day :P).
Over the past 2 days people have been moving their CUB out of farms. What you see now is the CUB den at $1.4 million:
And the farms shrinking with just under $1.6 million in the CUB-BUSD farm and just over $1 million in the CUB-BNB farm:
Come tomorrow, I expect the valve will be open even more, with more people getting out of the farm and into the CUB den. Instead of the current 'trickling' we might just see a flood into the dens for safety.
Appeal of CUB Den Safety
What safety? If you stake CUB in a farm and CUB goes up value, you lose CUB as your LP pair auto-trades your CUB to match the USD value in your LP pair. Whereas if you stake your CUB in the den, you don't lose any to it being sold off like the farm.
Some of the apes who have been surgically 'enhanced' with diamond hands don't want to lose any CUB whatsoever. So they prefer to be in the CUB den as they expect the value of CUB to moon.
And so you have some people who are moving over, as I see it, because the inflation cut (halving) makes CUB more appealing. Less inflation translates into less supply. With demand being equal before and after, it means the price 'should' increase due to less supply being created.
But the demand isn't equal. This is finance and not some product being sold in a grocery store that has the same usual demand week in and week out. The cut in inflation itself is creating more demand, at least in our Hive/Leo community. Diamond apes want MOAR CUB!
People are almost foaming at the mouth waiting to buy CUB after the supply crunch produces an expected dumping from the weak hands looking to cash out. Scooping up CUB at the dips has already been happening for a week.
As people rush in to buy CUB at the perceived low, the price will moon, at least for a bit. Some may expect a hard mooning period. But will that really happen?
Diamond Hand Apes vs. Paper Hand Dumpers
The amount of money in buyers hands needs to outnumber the amount of CUB the dumpers have. If the weak hands just looking to make money have more CUB to sell than the diamond apes have money to buy, well the expected moon will be short lived.
Maybe the Hive/Leo community has deep pockets to buy up all the CUB that will be dumped. If so, moon it shall be. And maybe not and people are gonna get rekt :/
What do you think will happen? Will there be a sustained moon from the diamond apes, or will the dumpers overpower their diamond pockets?
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That's a really tough call. It seems to me that there will be a dumping event. The price will go down temporarily. Until more sinks come online the increase in supply, which will continue to be rapid even after the flow gets cut in half, will cause the price to continue to decline slowly because the greatest gains will still be in the CUB/BUSD and the CUB/BNB farm. The difference between the two is small both in terms of yield and the price action of BUSD and BNB in the short term.
For those reasons I believe the fastest way to accumulate CUB will be to stay in the CUB/BUSD farm for the next few days. When the Bridge is launched, it its rate of adoption will determine whether the CUB/BNB farm or the CUB den will be the most profitable option.
Come crypto bear market in Q4 this year, the stablecoin farms will be the overwhelmingly most profitable options.
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!ENGAGE 30
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Yeah, there is plenty of supply out there, farms are still highest APR even after the cut. I tend to agree with your scenario of outcomes. You seem to have it quite well figured out ;) Good luck to you in the coming days, weeks and months :D
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ENGAGEtokens.I am watching and waiting. The majority of my CUB is in the Den. Seems the safe bet for now.
Source: Meme created by @sgt-dan | Use as you like
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Safe indeed, I'm watching and waiting as well hehe.
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I think the diamond apes will "win" short term. The real question is what happens when the LeoBridge comes on line later in the week. If that starts to show immediate volume then it may be all hands on deck and get the ---- out of the way. A lessening of supply coupled with a big jump in Cub burning could be a formula for a major pump.
No telling right now but, it's going to be interesting and hopefully very fun.
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Yup, that's a recipe for some mooning ;) I expect some buying to happen just prior to launch of the bridge in anticipation and prob more after... the signals from halving and dumping might be too strong at the moment though, who knows ;)
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My diamond paws want to scream at you for daring to write such hypocrisy. But you might be right. Even though inflation is cut in halved, there is still inflation. And some players might even leave CubFinance now entirely, because they were only here for the quick gains. Meaning that more APR is available in the BUSD-CUB farm. On the other hand, that would put the remaining inflation more and more into diamond paws. Still, it is too late for me anyways. I have 90% of my holdings in the Den, no point to move out of it at this low price, because I would have to sell half of my CUB for BUSD first. And I will not do that.
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Oh shit, I'm in the shot seat now :P
The future is moon indeed. Seems the dumpsters aren't laying it all on yet, being smart about it ;) Letting the apes buy up and get more gains from selling higher hehe.
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hi @krnel ,
everything is possible to happen, while everyone wants demand to be greater than supply this can also be a strategy to take advantage of a very short moon where only a few come out with profits, only time will tell what the future of this project is.
Yup, it looks good though :D
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Between the halvening and leobridge, i think the medium term for the cub price will be a lot higher than where it is today. Biggest thing now is promotion imo. Lots of people in crypto still haven't heard of Cub.
I agree. But prob blood in the streets this week :D
Calling on CUB marketing, get to work! :P
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I play a few farms and a one Den at the moment. The farms I use to provide liquidity which should I believe help the platform grow. I have no plans honestly of ever pulling it out of there and instead it will just continue to keep producing CUB for me which I then put into the den.
No idea if that's a smart move or not as this is my first time in DeFI.
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Yeah this is all my first time too. Seems like you have a good hedge both ways.
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I'm really glad you reminded me to watch the prices.
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Welcome, but what prices are those?
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In the farm pools... so if the price of CUB or (i'm in bnb) get crazy one can make a decision to get out.
yeah is like have always a buy option! :D
Time will tell, and only God knows what will really happen!
Now I understand the difference between them
and why people also seeking for dens
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Glad to at least have provided that understanding for others :)
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