I'm in exactly the same position as you. I am leveraged up on Eth on binance and have and a huge unrealized profit. But since Eth staking has now reached its required level, we are in an even better spot!
I think it is a buy the rumor sell the news event. Not in the long term, but probably in the short term. Although I could see Eth reaching $1,000 without a substantial correction.
But, in terms of the trade, closing the long on November 30/December 1st is the right play imo.
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Yeah I think you're right. The chances that ETH goes up on December 1st because everything worked out perfectly is pretty much zero imo.