On June 1st I published the blog entry below:
https://anarchistinvestor.substack.com/p/bitcoin-could-drop-to-23000-in-3
Recently, Bitcoin began a strong pump after forming a bull flag on the weekly chart and getting some news that Blackrock may finally get approval for its’ BTC ETF. There are two major themes here I want to discuss.
1. ETFs aren’t good for crypto
ETF’s and Wall Street investment vehicles are the most anti-decentralization things that could happen to crypto. Decentralization and disintermediation are at the heart of crypto. Large fat cat bankers creating paper products that ‘track’ crypto prices invites centralization via regulation and manipulation by large investment shops. Ultimately, Bitcoin will be attempted to be regulated as a security, its’ value manipulated to create profits for large investment shops, and it will lose the public’s trust because of it. I understand that these types of investment vehicles bring more money and attention to the crypto universe. But not all money and attention are good things. I wish I could be more upbeat about this but ‘mainstreaming’ crypto was always going to be co-opted by the managerial class of rulers. The key is keeping it pure in the areas where they can’t reach. It’s part of the reason I continue to follow HIVE, XMR, and ARRR. More on that in the future.
2. The recent pump isn’t likely to follow through
When chart patterns and news like this come out, the effects tend to be limited to a few trading days. This means the overall pattern will kick back in. And that pattern is still down. Bitcoin is still subject to traditional economic factors. Recession won’t be kind to it like all other risk assets where folks speculate. My ultimate target for a bottom in Bitcoin is $15,000 to $9,000. That will be my buying window where I’ll back up the truck. Stacking BTC in small, scheduled purchases is still on the table just in case that price point never gets realized. I guess I was a little hasty in picking a 3 week time frame for my $23,000 price prediction. I will have to sit back and count the weeks I was off by in the near future.
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***Keep in mind that investment and investment results are very much based on you as an individual. I am not an investment advisor. I’m a dude with an opinion. Do not rely solely on the discussion here to inform your investment decisions. Always make the investment decisions that are right for you and your situation.
Ok what does this mean... I'm curious and also scared
Just that my short-term price target on the downside wasn't being hit. I ultimately believe bitcoin has a final leg down before the bull market resumes. There is still too much interconnectedness between the value of bitcoin and the manipulated economy.