That means that the worst has already happened. USDC dumped to $0.92 which would be fair market value even if the whole $3.3b is lost forever.
I think a worse scenario is:
- Circle restarting 1:1 redemptions on Monday.
- Significant redemptions by arbitragers / whales / protocols (10bn?).
- Pressure to redeem increases as that 8% hole stretches to 12% .. 16% .. 20%.
- At some later point Circle stops redemptions and USDC trades much lower.
This could see USDC bounce back to close to parity Monday morning before falling again later.
While that hole remains there will always be sell pressure. And (as far as I can see) no way to mint new USDC. Their model doesn't work unless its fully backed.
My guess is they announce tomorrow / Monday how they are going to fill the hole. It's not a huge amount. Probably 2 bn after the advance dividend from SVB. Capital raise / loan / securitisation etc.
Announcement:
"In such a case, Circle, as required by law under stored-value money transmission regulation, will stand behind USDC and cover any shortfall using corporate resources, involving external capital if necessary."
https://www.circle.com/blog/an-update-on-usdc-and-silicon-valley-bank