Couldn't agree more regarding the link between the utility aspects of HIVE and the incoming liquidity shock. This is very much what has been seen on-chain in BTC for some times now, where folks have been (in the case of BTC) removing liquidity from exchanges and storing it elsewhere. However, the key difference with HIVE is that there are multiple avenues with which liquidity can be tied up by participating in the network activities. Furthermore, if you also factor in that (particularly for the resource credits scenario) it isn't quick (taking time to power down) to reintroduce the liquidity back into the market. This could mean that rather than the usual boom and bust cycles that we can see with kneejerk reactions of the market price (short term pumps etc), HIVE will most likely follow a more gradual sustainable path and encourage individuals to have a much more long-term mindset, instead of being reactive to the market at all time. It will be very exciting over the coming years to see just how this drop in liquidity affects the dynamics of the HIVE marketplace and the community as a whole. Exciting times ahead!
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You seemed to grasp it fully. I also am very intrigued by the HBD-HIVE correlation. That is something which is going to really cause some push in the demand for HIVE.
I am still trying to figure out how we can get enough HBD out there other than the conversion mechanism. So far, I haven't found one. That means a lot of HIVE would have to be used to get the HBD.
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Yeah the HBD dynamics are interesting and in my mind has two main layers to it:
Provided Hive continues to grow and the community continues to opt for the 50-50 payout then I believe that this (along with the interest earning element) will be the main source of HBD generation. While conversion is an option, the success of the Hive would continue to squeeze resource credits so I think it may be unlikely to generate a substantial portion though the conversion without diminishing operational services.
What I mean by this is that pressure will be put on the generation of HBD provided folks are incentivized to create more and use them for something specific. Be it lending protocols (stable-pair pools), in-game purchases, product access etc.
However, one caveat comes along with HDB because of the peg. The overall value of HBD will be very closely linked with the value of the dollar (as you would expect) which means as the US continues to devalue the global reserve currency so to the purchasing power of the HBD diminishes over time due to the peg. That said if the US were to pull the rabbit out of the proverbial hat, or maybe move to a BTC standard backed currency HBD could benefit from this. Though that kind of value is not governed by the Hive chain developers/communities so when we choose to peg we're putting trust in another party to not trach the economics for us.
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