Im not a trader but I find it hard to believe for anybody to beat the market trading up or down. I know even scalping can turn against you badly at any time too. I do wonder why you would short bitcoin if you are a bag holder , why short your own bag?
Luckily we have MSTR for those who like leveraged plays without the stress, it seems much easier than drawing lines and looking at charts.
I thought I answered this pretty definitively but I know it's weirdly complicated.
Shorting is always going to be more profitable than selling spot because you earn yield on the short.
The only risk is holding crypto on the exchange.
Which isn't that big of a risk because the position is leveraged much bigger than the actual holding.
For example if I have $100k worth of BTC and I want to sell 10% I can send $2000 to the exchange and x5 short the $10k. If price goes up 20% and my position gets liquidated I'm actually up $17.6k on the original $98k ($117.6k). Now I can short even harder if I want to and farm even more yield. If I sell spot there is no yield to farm... it's basically free money as long as the exchange doesn't freeze the account.
The worst case scenario is this user loosing a few percentage points... and that assumes they haven't already farmed that much already and taken it off the exchange. Farming a few points is very easy during peak FOMO when the funding rate is off the charts. It's also an amazing top signal. I'll do another post on it today to clear things up.
Here we see a funding rate around 0.05%+ signals massive FOMO vibes.
This interest rate happens 3 times a day.
So the APR on 0.05% is x1095 = ~55% yields... which is pure insanity.
If we get to 0.1% it's pretty much a guaranteed top by simple math/greed.
Now makes sense, a pretty nice way to earn yield and quite low risk I guess too