Hey Crypt.
There's a huge difference between trading and investing. If you will recall, years ago I explained that most crypto traders engaged in "technical analysis" and that, in doing so, they were engaging in self-fulfilling prophecies. That is, if a large number of traders employ the same (or similar) technicals indicators, they can collectively cause the very movements that their indicators are supposedly predicting.
We have now (finally) arrived at a point where at least some cryptos can be judged upon fundamentals (or quasi-fundamentals for lack of better word). Over the past week, the price of Hive went from $0.99 to $3.36 to $2.05 (at the time of this writing). Did something about the blockchain's fundamentals change over the past 7 days? When I logged into Hive yesterday (Thanksgiving) to say "Hi" to a few old friends, I was surprised to learn that Hive was trading at $1.69! "What gives?" So, as an ex-hedge manager, the first thing I did was look up some basic stats.
https://ecency.com/hive-133987/@penguinpablo/daily-hive-stats-report-friday-november-26-2021
Take a look at "3. Daily Accounts transacting." Over a period of months, the activity level has increased from about 12,000 to about 14,000. That's a positive ... but does it constitute a fundamental change in the blockchain's condition?
Look at the next stat: "4. Posts + Comments per post." Is this the kind of activity that justifies a legitimate tripling of Hive's price?
Amazon's price has skyrocketed because it's selling a LOT of stuff online. Tesla's selling a ton of electric cars. Hive's primary raison d'etre is the production of social media content. Is there any evidence that it is producing more social media content or gaining more social media users?
No, there isn't.
Sustainable price increases require sustainable increases in underlying activity. Hype, hoopla and hyperbole created but fleeting effects. I'd love to see Hive hit $20 but until the fundamentals change, this pump is likely to be as lasting as the last dozen.
Quill
First of all, great to hear from you again Quill! Recently I went onto your page and saw you hadn't been around for some time, so yeah, good to see you back.
I think the pump is based around the Hive NFTs and the success of the Hive Punks. NFTs are taking off mainly because people enjoy collecting, and they are more interesting than just accumulating coins.
Also NFTs have had a lot of favourable press much more so than crypto in the early years, that along with celebrity endorsements seems to have really boosted the market.
With that in mind people are realising that it is more costly to obtain NFTs and also that they are not equal. Minting an NFT on Ethereum could cost hundreds of dollars, on Solana maybe twenty and on Tezos or Hive, maybe five bucks.
This is where I think Hive has started to gain traction, I wouldn't be surprised if most newbies investing in Hive do not know, or care about the blogging side of it, they just want to obtain NFTs for affordable amounts of money, which they can potentially sell for a profit in the future.
Lastly you made the point about Amazon et. al. being worth more money because they are selling more product, however you forget that we see companies rise in share price on pure speculation all the time. This happens both legitimately and fraudulently.
Look at the company Nikola, they were able to raise billions of dollars and had were valued at $32 billion dollars, even though they had sold exactly zero vehicles. In the same year Ford sold over 100 million vehicles and were valued at $29 billion.
At the end of the day Hive has a chance as long as the NFT market is evolving, after that it will hinge on the next thing to take the imagination. I've always seen that thing as gaming, it's so big and the potential is there for the first blockchain to realise this and come up with a killer game that both uses and generates crypto or NFTs in some way.
Anyway like I say, good to see you again old chap!
Cg
Hey Crypt.
Good to hear from you too. I miss you bastards. Respecting NFTs in general, I hope you're right ... I've got a big NFT project planned. Respecting Hive's NFTs specifically, keep in mind:
1.) Ethereum is close to transitionning to Proof of Stake (Casper) meaning that their high gas fees are about to disappear;
2.) Solana has already dramatically decreased the price of minting;
3.) FTX.US has joined the fray with near-zero minting costs;
4.) Coinbase is scheduled to launch their NFT platform within weeks and, again, with minting costs at or close to zero. Within days of announcing their future NFT marketplace launch (end of 2021), 2.5 million people signed-up on their waiting list.
Each of these entities have marketing budgets in the billions ... and they're using them. FTX.US has signed Tom Brady (football), Stephen Curry (basketball) and Shohei Ohtani (baseball) as athletic endorsers. They've also bought the naming rights (for 19 years) for the stadium in which the Miami Heat play. And, they'll be running a Super Bowl commercial in a couple of months. Plus, they've already listed Solana NFTs on their exchange and Ethereum listings are about to occur any day. And, they're making money hand-over-fist from their primary business activity (as a crypto trading exchange). And, while they have their own internal coin (FTT, ranked #31 with a market cap of $6.8 billion), they also have a substantial holding in Solona (SOL, ranked #5 with a market cap of $60.6 billion), arguably the hottest coin in existence.
This is to say nothing of the dozen other Top 50 platforms that are fighting fiercely for a piece of the action. Can Hive compete against any of this?
As I've argued for years, most crypto projects are run by 20- and 30-year old computer nerds who, while possessing brilliance about computer code, seem utterly bereft in their understanding of GENETIC code. What they can't seem to grasp is that the technology means NOTHING if you can't get people interested in using it. Their strategy has been, and still is, "Build It And They Will Come." It ought to be clear by now that this is an un-realistic strategy. And yet, it persists.
While Hive possesses all the pieces of the puzzle, its Achilles Heel is its inability to "Concentrate Force at the Decisive Point." Why? Because everyone is pimping their own project and the ability to coalesce around a common goal is all but non-existent. The downside of decentralization.
https://www.voice.com/creation/100000001001486
Quill