This Week in the Economy -
It seems as if, since starting this thread three weeks ago, the posts would have a similar theme. Maybe it's me, but each week I feel that there has been a shift in the outlook of the economy. This week there are several trends that have caused me to view the economy from a more "bearish" lens. The spread of the delta variant continues to cause issues in our economic recovery. Especially in the new jobs report, it seems as if the virus has slowed the trend of people heading back to work. Many people thought that as unemployment benefits ended this month, employment would be positively impacted. This doesn't seem to be the case just yet. This slowed job growth along with the delta-variant have caused many people, including myself, to reconsider the Fed's tapering policies.
It is crazy to me that now instead of worrying about the economy overheating, we (meaning myself) are worried more about the Fed tapering too early in line with the variant. If the Fed starts to taper to early, this could cause another recession. The Fed will be in a tough spot in the coming months. This predicament comes in line with months of economic stimulus from the government, causing many to worry about inflationary issues. If the Fed waits too long to start tapering, it could cause the economic to experience too much growth in a short time-frame. This could cause a crash in its own right.
I predict that if any problems occur, it will be because the Fed starts tapering too late, and the economy grows too quickly. The current administration has held the position that they will continue to prop-up the economy through these unprecedented times. Good news for us, nothing super bad has happened so far 'knock on wood'. I'd love to hear everyone's thoughts on what they think will happen in the near future. I love hearing other people's ideas, and hopefully you all will teach me something I do not know. Thanks!
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