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RE: The bear and the eagle devouring Europe. Euro, game over.

in LeoFinance3 years ago

Indeed. Europe has seen two devastating world wars in the 20th century followed by yet another 45 years of totalitarianism for the eastern half of it.

Those countries in Europe that are most heavily dependent on Russian natural gas should be very busy building LNG terminals. Nuclear power plants should be on the drawing board. Now is the time to be forward looking when it comes to energy. Small scale reactors should be looked into. The Japanese and possibly the Koreans have working products. If Germany cannot bring itself to build more nuclear and foolishly insists on not looking into extending the life of its existing plants, then there is a lot of money to be made for Germany's neighbors by selling nuclear generated electricity to Germany.

None of this will solve the potential gas shortage in the near future except partially for floating LNG terminals if they can be obtained.

Not arming and financially supporting Ukraine would be dangerous. If Ukraine fell, apart from the horrific humanitarian cost of that, Russia would control even larger a share of the world's agricultural exports. Ukraine's sizable oil and gas deposits will also be entirely controlled by Russia. Russia's stranglehold on the world and Europe would strengthen. And Russia hasn't made bones about its intentions regarding Eastern Europe. Putin wants to restore Russia's imperial glory and for Russia to dominate Eastern Europe once again.

In the best possible case, the Russian economy would suffer badly enough for Russia to disintegrate. Ukraine and Belarus would be free. The whole of North Caucasus would become a patchwork of independent countries. Bashkiria, Tuva and Buryatia, the cannon fodder producing poor republics of Asian Russia would gain independence as well. They'd remain independent with Chinese support. The Far East would become China's backyard but in name.

It would be ideal if the traditional Pomor country made up of the oblasts where the Republic of Novgorod once was became independent of Moscow. But that does not seem likely to me. The people of St.Petersburg and the oblasts to the east of it have Russian identity.

I'm afraid Russia would have to cease to function as well as it has functioned under Putin for it to not be a threat. I have nothing against Russians living well as such. But it seems that every time Russia becomes successful it reverts to imperialism. The only solution is to keep it down forever. That means it can't be traded with to any significant extent and certainly not depended on for anything vital. Every country that has significant trade with Russia needs to be slapped with import tariffs on its products in all Western countries. Military superiority vs. Russia must be maintained.