Disclaimer: DYOR before investing any of your hard earned money into anything, easy come, easy go.
Investors and traders can usually be divided into two categories, those that study and focus on the fundamentals, and those that believe purely in the technical view. Both should strive to master money management.
You will find the occasional market wizard having a firm grip on both fundamentals and technicals, however when its time to buy or sell, they will usually lean towards one or the other.
Which do you believe move the markets?
I have a purely technical approach to the markets, while trying to stay mindful of the fundamentals developing in the world around us.
In this market discussion please feel free to comment with any questions, viewpoints, or criticism, whether its technical, macro or fundamentals.
I encourage you to join this discussion, feel free to ask me about the technicals on any market - crypto, stocks, bonds, etc. Price predictions for fun at the end of the thread/comments.
Weekly Market Outlook
Last week ended with a bit of a bullish anticlimax when the Fed announcement on Thursday gave the stock market bulls a little bit of hope.
What are your views for the week ahead?
Today I'm going to cover a few major markets, starting with oil, then we will take a look at the VIX, SPY, gold and also the US Dollar.
So no crypto you ask!? In the discussion we will try to get to grips with some of the macro elements in the market before making a call on Bitcoin or any other crypto.
I view Bitcoin as a currency, however, having a smaller market cap than the dollar it does tend to act like a stock. When trading BTC vs the US Dollar it is important to gauge the strength of the dollar first.
Why does anybody care about oil?
In a nutshell, oil is the price of productivity in this world as things stand right now. Sure there is a lot of alternative energy out there driving production, but it is still largely a carbon fuel based economy.
We can see a few things about the market when we look at oil, for instance when Covid hit back in 2020 the oil prices fell to nothing because the world ceased production on a big scale. There were other factors influencing prices, but the fact that nobody was going to work was one of the major reasons for the oil crash.
Oil was still bullish at the end of last week and at the time of writing this, trading around $109 a barrel.
The fundamentals behind the rise in the oil prices is largely believed to be the conflict in Ukraine. I am sure it is a factor, but I believe there is most likely a lot more variables to it than that.
Looking at the USOIL and UKOIL markets, volume has been drying up if we compare it to the last few weeks. A rise in price and decline in volume is a clear divergence. Should the buyers not come to the table at these prices, many will get caught in a bull trap.
As of writing this there is still fighting going on in the Ukraine, so I will stay mindful and look towards the VIX for a rise in volatility that could signal a possible selloff/retracement on the stocks.
What are your thoughts on OIL right now? Comment below to join the discussion.
Keeping an eye on the VIX
Many might already know this, but I will repeat it, the VIX measures the "fear" in the US stock market - the S&P500 Composite Index to be exact.
This can be a useful tool for those swing trading the cryptocurrency markets. Bitcoin, for one, reacts to the VIX quite similarly to the stock markets these days.
We saw a sell signal on the VIX last week and was not a bad signal to load up on some stocks or cryptos. However, as I'm writing this the VIX is up 1.8% in the pre market hours, if it goes above 25 - 26 there should be a bit of selling on the stocks.
I would expect Bitcoin and other cryptos to start bleeding if the VIX jumps up in the next few days.
Gold and the US dollar: Our safe havens
As a crypto holder you might believe otherwise, but for what it's worth, in times of trouble capital usually flees for a safe haven. In the past 2 years gold and the US dollar have proved themselves as save havens for trillions once again.
While Bitcoin and other cryptos have also proven themselves as a store of value in the past 2 years, it has been a much more volatile ride. Regardless, I monitor the gold and US dollar markets for confirmations on certain situations.
Gold has been struggling to break above $2,000 again after the oil price also made highs two weeks ago. Currently the gold and oil market seem to be trading on a similar trend.
The US dollar remains strong, but there are some signs that shows it is weakening and perhaps gearing up for a much needed retrace vs most other major currencies.
Looking at the stocks
The New York stock exchange is about to open in a few minutes from me writing this post. The major composites showed some bullish action at the close last week, but all markets are knocking against resistance.
Today will be very interesting as the market prices in the new developments in Ukraine as well as any new emerging fundamentals that might affect the price action.
Price predictions for this week?
As a fun exercise let's make some price predictions for the upcoming week, and practice our market wizardry skills. Seeing this is my first post here on the HIVE blockchain I will see if there is any response to my post before putting in the time to make any predictions.
Would you like me to make a price prediction on a market? Let me know in the comments below!
Do you have your own price prediction? Share in the comments below and start the discussion.
I will try my best to respond to any comments/requests, I hope you enjoyed the post, happy trades y'all :)
Welcome, @shrimponacci,
It would be nice to have someone speaking openly and truthfully about anything without having an agenda. If you can give a comment on oil (WTI)
Imho, Oil is real, it will be here for some time to come, I feel we need to give oil's power the respect it needs. The switch from fossil to green will flow the way that nature WILL let it flow, we can push and pull as hard as we like, probably just breaking more than fixing more at the end of the day. (We are actually very good at trying to change things and ending up with another problem. - Guam and the old mouse problem is today a Guam without mice, yes, but a snake problem and no birds)
(I do not own OIL - I should have bought it at -$0)
I am only good at predicting one thing 100% correct all the time... "I predict that my predictions will be wrong"
But I would happily make a prediction that I hope will play out.
I will choose a ticker, predict the price, date, and then also give my reasoning.
Ticker: HIVE (Not the HIVE crypto, HIVE as a listed company)
Short-term (4 weeks) Med. term (4 Months) Long-term (5 Years)
Short-term: $2.00 +
Yes, it broke $2.00 yesterday but I feel we will have a retracement soon and then it will be back up to $2.00 +
Why: Because I own the stock, HIVE is not your normal crypto outfit, the company is listed as an example.
Med. term: $3.00 +
Why: HIVE will continue with the short-term momentum, the momentum will bring more investors to the table, HIVE's management is active.
Long term: $10.00 +
Why: Because I am long on HIVE, it has seen a higher close price than the current price, there will be a shift in the political status by then, the current world affairs will have faded away. We will be in a new growth cycle.
Thanks for the nice comment and also the tip @getrich.dietryin , much appreciated!
I like your prediction on the NYSE stock for HIVE, lets keep an eye on it and see what happens in the future :)
WTI , wow, Oil has been on a crazy ride the last two years and the last time we saw these prices were in 2009 if I'm not mistaken. Soon afterwards most of the west experienced a recession, is that what oil is telling us now?
Like you have mentioned in the past, OIL is a juggernaut, most people won't understand the role that oil plays in our day to day lives.
Technically speaking there is a serious resistance between 120 - 140, the all time highs of the US Dollar oil markets. Bluntly put above $120 a barrel the world is going to struggle to operate, interesting times ahead for sure!
I am going to try to do a short term prediction for oil, as it stands right now I know a lot of traders are bullish on oil.
My prediction is a lower oil price next week, I had a theoretical short on paper from 114 that got stopped out today. I think the oil market will retest the 105 - 110 levels after 115 - 120 proves itself as the new resistance.
Any developments with the war in Ukraine will more than likely move the markets, so please DYOR before trading or investing in anything.
Safe trades y'all!
Hello @shrimponacci! This is @chillwithshanna from @ocd (Original Content Decentralized) team. We saw that you already posted your first blog here in Hive! Congratulations and welcome!
Here at Hive we would love to get to know new users well. So the best way to start your journey here is to do an awesome introduction post. You can choose on whatever information you would like to share and be creative as you want to be. You might want to tag who introduced you to hive in your introduction post to thank them. This will help other Hivers get to know you and be comfortable supporting your works here.
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If you are looking for tips and information as a Hive newbie, click here: Newbie guide. If you have questions, you can hop into Discord server and we'll gladly answer your questions. Feel free to tag @lovesniper @chillwithshanna once you have made your awesome introduction post! Happy Blogging!
Thanks a lot for the warm welcome and all the resources, I really do appreciate it!
I will get to work on a introduction post ASAP, and be sure to tag you :)
Have a lovely day 🌻
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