You are definitely a glass half full person and that's a good thing. I usually am too, but want to bring up some loose counterpoints. First, could you elaborate a bit on the time horizon you're thinking, or is it open-ended that this could be in a decade?
Countless new onramps would be needed. I personally struggle to get Hive to buy Punks and Splinterlands stuff and I've been here since mid-2017. It's legitimately something I dread doing.
Also, while games can be a catalyst, and Splinterlands is amazing for being the best thing HIVE can showcase IMO, I think that more immersive metaverse games/worlds will be hard to compete with, as compared to new card battling games like Ragnarok. Like Hive Punks were all the rage on Hive for a few weeks, they've gotten stuck in concrete since. Ragnarok may be a hit with Hivers, especially since they're get their airdropped assets, but I just don't see it having a strong pull vs more dynamic and ETH-based games these days where NFTs are easier to see and obtain. I'm also confused because there already seems to be a blockchain game called Ragnarok that's built and playable: https://blockchain-ro.com/.
With an inflationary supply, we'd need quite an exorbitant flood of demand to fight the sell pressure to reach such a token price. Nothing's impossible, but I really think that HIVE's lack of interoperability and framework will make such exponential growth extremely difficult. I feel that beyond the Web 3.0 trend, blockchains that are build on the same framework that can be interoperable will ultimately grow and consume more of those who aren't, and best survive/thrive. I think that HIVE has sort of isolated itself in trying to be a best-in-breed, and it's potentially shot itself in the foot.
On the 12% HBD rate, I think defi offers way more simple ways to get that yield or better outside of HIVE where large investors would be far more likely to play and trust. For example, UST can get 19-20% with far fewer hoops to go through. A large investor may also see that HBD can spike and drop way beyond 1%, quite alarming for them, which ultimately means that better mechanics for more stability are needed before we can expect that to be a strong selling point.
As for a killer app, I wish I had developer skills, but I don't. I think that SPL is our best shot at that app versus a new one being developed in the future. I just don't sense enough global awareness and demand to come over to Hive, especially as the devs haven't brought many to the community over all these years of Steem/Hive. I think getting a swarm of new devs is step 1. The current devs have been focused on improving Hive, and perhaps just not as much on innovating major apps to drive such widespread growth as we'd hope for to get us to even $20.
Nice post. Just being respectfully on the other side for a few.
While I am not making any price predictions, I am thinking in near future terms like 1-3 years. I didn't know about another Ragnarok game, I will take a look.
To respond for your other points (really good ones), let me ask you a question. Last year today when Hive was trading at around $0.11-$0.13 would you have thought its price would go to as high as $3 within a year? That's about 25x. Same concerns were back then, and probably even more. But things are moving fast and just this years development and price action do provide optimism. Hence, I am simply reflecting on possibilities. :)
It is always good to keep healthy skepticism and making rational decisions when investing. Great points. Thank you.
Estamos en mundo diferente y podría pasar amigo