Very interesting post. I see that you explore the world of investments in a broad way. I wanted to ask you a question. In your opinion, will the S&P 500 collapse at the end of the year or is it more likely that it will exceed 6000 points?
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I do not do price predictions. That said I did write months ago that the market would not collapse before the elections. The powerful hands behind the Democrats will do anything to hold the markets up. Fall over and the Dems have no chance.
The things to do is to check if the conditions for collapse are in place. US consumer is hanging in. Mortgage defaults in US and in most of Europe are in normal bands. Interest rates are coming down in most markets. The Israel retaliation against Iran was very measured and very strategic. No WWIII just yet.
The nagging element is the size if the US debt. It is within the percentage of GDP parameters economists are OK with - but it is high.
As for my portfolio - with the busy options expiry last week, am holding enough cash to ride through 3 years. Only hedges in place are on gold and silver and crypto. Once the election results come in I will hedge the US and Europe portfolios.