I'm leaning more into the combination of one and two. Trump has bigger plans that extend beyond just crypto but he also didn't want crypto people to feel "unimportant/left behind." At this point, I won't be surprised if we descend into a "mini bear market" for some time as the macro outlook isn't looking great right now, and the trade war(s) has begun.
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In this case, we have already gone that route for a while now. Looks like the trade war is heating up, so we might see some troubled times ahead.