I have spent most of the day away from the computer for a change, which has been nice. We even made it to visit some friends and take munkki (Finnish cinnamon and sugar donuts) as an offering. It was a bit of a surprise though, as we took 12 donuts and it was around 40€, but I don't remember it being quite so expensive, and I have been a relatively frequent visitor. If this continues, the donut inflation is going to be more expensive to me than the change in fuel prices.
How is it that even though oil prices per barrel were so much higher back in 2008, the prices at the pump never got close to where they are now? Factor in the inflation rate over the last 15 years and the price per barrel should actually be pretty reasonable in comparison, right? Why is this a thing today? Is the supply that low? Is it so hard to move it around still?
Seems a bit fishy to me, but I don't know much about the dynamics of oil prices except that when barrel price goes up, the price at the pump immediately raises - but when price goes down, it doesn't drop at the pump.
For example in Finland, the current price is about 2.30€ per liter, 75% tax included. But, you see that 2020 dip where barrel price was 20 dollars? That should have meant that the fuel cost at the pump should have been no more than 46 cents at the pump - however, at that time it was still around 1.60€ - the math doesn't add up, does it? Not only that, there weren't delivery issues at that point either. I am sure there is some sense in there somewhere, but even as a child, I haven't been able to understand how they price oil, including that even when the price spikes, the petrol they have already shipped and bought, has been obtained at the lower prices. Constant price gouging, regardless of supply.
I wonder what the price would be if it was all managed on blockchains through algorithms like a liquidity pool, where the price at the pump was dynamically changed with precision based on when the fuel was obtained and at what price. Would the price go up, or down?
I suspect that if it was possible in a hypothetical world where all supply chain data was being managed precisely and transparently, that prices in many industries would fall, as we would see just where the value was going. Also, I think in some places the price would increase, because the market would decide, rather than the backroom dealers and lobby groups.
I think this would be especially true if we all had individual ownership and control of our assets and posit that under such a system, war itself would likely become extinct, because while people don't seem to mind their tax money being spent on war, they would be Far more resistant if they had to open up their own wallets and empty them out in order to by the equipment and people required to attack. They might be more willing to pay for defense though.
For example, in the US, the 2020 military spending budget was approximately 721 billion dollars (777B this year) - is that a lot? I don't know, but with 329 million people in the US, it means that every man, woman and child would have to be willing to contribute on average $2184 dollars each. Let's say that 50% are willing to give in this way.
In 2020, 165M people worked in some capacity, which is conveniently around half the population. Assuming and if only half of them are willing to contribute, in order to raise that 721 billion, they would have to each contribute 4x an individual, meaning that each would now have to contribute $8,749 dollars. How many are willing? And, this is only in the first year and will be required every year.
So, half the working population on average would need to give 17% of their salary in order to pool enough for the defense budget every year. And, they will have to do this, even though the other half are choosing not to contribute to the military in this way, which means they will have 17% more on average to spend on other things.
What are the chances of raising that kind of capital to go to war?
Now, that obviously would cripple the US military, which spend three times as much on the military as China and thirteen times more than Russia. But, in a fantasy world of individual ownership and control at a global level (something that has never existed before), all countries would be hamstrung and the ability to build armies would be severely hampered. Yes, small groups could form, but it would be tribal, not global - and many other group would gather to put together decentralized forces also, but these would be disbanded very quickly,, much like the ability to undelegate from an abusive account.
I know, I know... Fantasy world.
But, if people really did want to end the wars and even the potential for mass wars, it isn't through proliferation of weapons so everyone is equally equipped, nor is it through an attempt to reduce all weapons to zero, it is through defunding the possibility of gathering an army of any significant size and the only way to do that is, providing an economy where people make individual decisions.
Now, in this world you could say that private armies could be built by the billionaires, oligarchs and mega corporations, but that is not the case either. The only reason those people and organizations can exist at the size they are, is because of the economy we currently have. If everyone had ownership and granular control over their finances, whenever an organization got too controlling or abusive, people would stop supporting it, essentially defunding its ability to continue to grow.
While this is a simplistic view of a decentralized economy and there are many things to consider along the way, what is obvious is why the current controlling groups do not want decentralized finance, because they lose control over our wealth. Currently, we might think we have ownership and some say in what happens because we might vote a leader, but that is not how this economy works at all - we are powerless because, we do not even have access to our own resources.
At the moment, they are freezing the assets of Putin, Russian oligarchs and government upper hierarchy as if this is a blow to them - but what everyone fails to miss is who's wealth that really is - it has been extracted from 145 million Russians over the space of decades - it belongs to them. If over that same period of time all Russians had control of their own wealth, do you think they would be at war in Ukraine now? Do you think Putin would lead them at all?
Highly unlikely.
As I will keep saying - the real war is between centralization and decentralization. The entire current economy is centralized and facilitates atrocities of many kinds.
Don't forget it.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
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Same here and in any other country I know. The fuel price goes up when petrol price goes up, but they forgot to take it down when the petrol price goes down.
"forget" :D
If we are dumb enough to pay, why reduce?
Don't even get me started. Now after covid years, every product is either 25 percent more expensive, or the weight/pack is 25% lower keeping the same price.
WWI was so terrible and lasted so long because all the participants went off the gold standard just before.
So instead of having to fund the war from Treasury (which would have ended it in 9 months) they printed fiat money and debased their currencies to extend the war to 5 years.
I had never thought about that timing before... We have so little power in the current economy. It has to change.
Read The Bitcoin Standard
It costs to refine the oil. Also, the price the refineries pay is probably not the spot price but something much more complex based on long term contracts and hedging using derivatives.
I wonder what the "real cost" is once all the shite is taken out of it.
Good question.
I've been watching this in Russia and Belarus for 10-15 years, gasoline prices and food prices have never gone down, all the explanations we have been given have defied any logic..
Definitely not. I think if one were to explain to people who pay taxes now what their money goes to, the choice for or against would be obvious. Unfortunately, the population of our countries is poorly educated in economics, it is not beneficial to the state. People have to swallow what is fed to them. Fortunately now young people and anyone who wants it, can educate themselves, the Internet contributes to this.
Peace and goodness to you!
!BEER
I think it is much the same everywhere. There is no education as good as doing it - owning and taking responsibility will make us all educated in economics and finance, very fast. It would be a better world - but, we have to own and take responsibility.
Good luck out there mate and I wish no one would have to suffer - but unfortunately, my wisghes account for nothing.
💪 Very strongly said!
Thank you! Support always means something...
!PIZZA
I just called my dad about the oil and gas prices a few days ago and apparently we are getting fucked in the ass by our goverments here in north. Prices have gone up a fair bit everywhere in Europe but nothing insane like we have to deal with, and it’s mostly because of the taxes that are meant to deter us from using said substances. I need to order 1000liters of oil and with the current price being about 2300€, I can’t fucking wait for summer when I can turn off all the radiators.
It is insane, isn't it? I am glad that we moved over to an air-water heat exchanger, but all energy is going up rapidly. Oils sucks the most though.
Ilmavesilämpöpumppu does seem to be the smartest choice now and definitely something we are putting in at some point but before this price increase on oil it didn’t yet make sense to change the system as our boiler is still in good condition. Will have to see how things look in the near future.
It was almost half the price of maalämpö and I think there is still a rebate on it (we didn't get one, missed out by two weeks 5k€)
An old, simple and usually effective technique governments employ when they have to dealing with rising prices is to "leak" to the media that the rise in price is going to be much more severe. Then when the price actually rises, price rise is actually smaller and government suddenly gets credit for "acting responsibly" and "rescuing people from misery". This just happened in Croatia.
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yep - it is the same with delivery times - add a few days, deliver "early"
Very interesting thoughts in general but your graph of the oil price just hit me. How come a gallon of oil is $6 in some places in the US. Highest ever when the traded price had already been so high 15 years ago, weird…
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Yeah, this is what I mean - I have no idea....
The same paradox in my country. When the price of crude oil goes up, the price of oil also goes up in stations the next day; however, it does not goes down in a contrary situation.
Seems like a scam to me!
Just one of the methods to fuck folks.
Others uses this medium as an advantage as the price is high to make profit which I wouldn't blame them for such but this is really affecting the economy
Everyone works on incentives - theirs are profits.
One thing about the government is , what is high,it doesn't come down again even the price reduce but the sellers will be selling the high price
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Everything that goes up, must come down - except for prices.
Yes. Government price always go up
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The problem is that with the rise in gas prices, the price of gold and silver will also increase and perhaps the price will increase and exceed $150. This will generate crises in global stock exchanges. Do you think it is time to start new era of renewable energies?
Renewable is good, but not the solution for the economy. The solution for the economy is decentralized ownership of all resources.
Wow, this is so beautiful and educating, it has really opened my eyes to the misdemeanors in the society, I will be going to look critically into these things to further enlighten myself. Before now I actually felt we owned and controlled our resources . Thanks for sharing this, let me delve into my own research and analysis, I will get back to you. I hope you'd be available to clarify me more
Research well.
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You are quite right. Centralisation is the problem. In particular when governments and their corporate lackeys are the beneficiaries of that centralisation.
Decentralisation is key and we should focus on decentralising our lives as much as possible. Vote with your money. Buy local produce from local distributors as much as possible. Give big chains a wide berth. And as much as this goes counter our being on hive, pay cash!
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