Trump is going to tariff the world?
Should be fun.
But, what is interesting is how scared the world is because of it. What is going to happen to the economy!! Oh noes....
I have a question. There are about 8 billion people on earth, and there are about 350 million in the US. That means that roughly 4.5% of the global population live in the US. The greatest country on earth.
For some Americans.
But, the reason the rest of the world is worried, is because they rely on the biggest economy in the world to dump a lot of useless shit upon. The globalised economy has been set up for some to make extreme wealth, while the majority suffer. So, why not take a mulligan and reset to play again.
This is the 2022 GDP of the top ten countries:
You can see why the US is so powerful, because it generated over 25% of the global total. However, should this worry the rest of the world? Rather than bending the knee to keep selling minimal amounts of products to the the US, shouldn't the rest of the world be looking to build their economy without the US?
As far as I know, the US doesn't really need anything from the rest of the world in order to survive, which is a good position to be in. However, does the rest of the world need anything from the US to survive? I know, you are thinking the US military - but is that really the case?
What would happen if the RoW enacted a total trade embargo on the US?
Fuck, that would be disruptive and the markets would go into shock. But, if you think about it for a bit, why not just isolate the US completely and any infrastructure that the RoW currently relies on, just rebuild on this side of the wall. It might be slow to start, but it will quickly build momentum, especially since the resources and value generated would be spent locally, rather than being extracted out by US companies who don't hire many people locally, nor pay their taxes where they earn their money.
Think about a few of the numbers. Facebook would go from 3B MAU, to at most 350M. YouTube would go from 2.7B MAU to 350M. Whatsapp 2.4B, Instagram 2.3B.... to max 350M. And, that is hard-capped at 350M - less if you count the deportations of illegals, and then the below replacement rate birth rate.
These companies earn massive amounts that they pull into the US through various means, but there are non-US alternatives to all of these programs, or they could be created. Yes, it is inconvenient, but hard-forking the US out of the rest of the world economy is doable.
And, think about the investments.
the top 10 largest companies in the United States account for roughly 38 per cent of the S&P 500 stock index, the highest level since comparable records began over a century ago.
So, that means if you invest 100 dollars in the 500 largest companies, 38 dollars is actually going into 10 companies. That inflates their value, but it also sets up a pretty big shock if something like global trade embargoes on US companies happen. Especially those tech stocks, considering that the majority of their income and business model comes from outside the US. Imagine Amazon only having access to US produced goods, and only able to sell to the US market. That is all of the goods, no more Chinese factories, and Indians working the call centres.
But what about the US oil!!
With 4.5% of the global population, the US alone consumes 20% of the oil. And before you say...
That's right. The US consumes more oil than it currently produces. Sure, they can ramp up production by 25% to cover the deficit, so they'll be fine, right? But, life isn't only about oil.
And While we are at it....
The U.S. dollar remains the world's primary reserve currency and remains deeply embedded in the global financial system. Central banks and financial institutions around the world hold vast quantities of U.S. dollars for trade, investment, and value.
60% of the world's 11.5 trillion in foreign exchange reserve is in US dollars. Maybe, that should no longer be a thing at all? Perhaps, there should be a new RoW token for global trade, excluding the US of course.
And yeah, this would be pretty fucking disruptive to everyone's lives, but this would actually be an opportunity to have the "great reset" without including the most abusive economy in the world in the process.
My question is, what does the rest of the world actually need from the US, that it can't produce itself? Sure, there are military gaps, but they can be closed pretty rapidly. And yeah, there are some tech gaps, but they can also be closed pretty quickly. And if this were to happen, how many people would choose to jump the border *out of the US and move to the RoW - how many people on greencards working in those tech companies that have been extracting globally, will choose to go home to wherever they are from, and help set up infrastructure and business for 7.65 billion people.
I suspect, put under these kinds of conditions, it would end up in a period of extreme creativity and innovation, where the mistakes of past implementations can be corrected in global rollouts.
What does the US lead in the world?
The USA is the world's foremost economic and military power, with global interests and an unmatched global reach. America's gross domestic product accounts for close to a quarter of the world total, and its military budget is reckoned to be almost as much as the rest of the world's defence spending put together.
While descriptions of the U.S. role in the world since the end of World War II vary in their
specifics, it can be described in general terms as consisting of four key elements: global
leadership; defense and promotion of the liberal international order; defense and promotion of
freedom, democracy, and human rights; and prevention of the emergence of regional hegemons in
Eurasia.
Hmmmm.... that second one comes from the US congress.
"Defense" is mentioned twice - I guess that is why they spend the same as the RoW on their military. All that defending they do, and reventing the emergence of regional "hegemons" (*supreme leadrers).
Rather than trying to save the trade with the US to make a little money in one area, while they take more in another, just rip off the band-aid and cut them off entirely. Even by their own congressional description, what they add to the rest of the world is protection.
Like the Mafia.
What a lot of Americans forget is, the rest of the world is pretty awesome and filled with people who can design and build things relatively well. The threats that are being made are based on a fragile economic situation, and if it cracks, everyone is going to suffer. But, like a gangrenous appendage, cut the US off early enough, and while the shock will be large, the RoW economy will grow rapidly, because that is how economics works. It would be an adjustment for sure, but that adjustment would be made in the numbers more than the reality of goods and services.
Trump is right.
The rest of the world should pull its weight in the defense sectors, and its weight is enormous, as there are 7.6 billion people involved. That is an incredibly large group of people, and market potential. Cut ties with the US, sever the fibre optic cables, shift to RoW satellites...
Stop being reliant, and start building.
But it will never happen... Because there is too much power being generated for the very few. They don't care about any of this. They don't care if people are starving, or if there is war. All they care about is ensuring that they are doing better than everyone else, at an increasing rate. Things are working fine in their opinion, and they don't have to bend the knee, because they own the infrastructure that keeps the status quo ticking.
We are the fools.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
Posted Using INLEO
Living in USA I would say that competition is much more fierce here than in many other countries. I don't think the rest of the world would quickly catch up. US created China as an economic giant, but China is reliant on US for selling their goods, without US as a customer China will be in a huge crisis, therefore they will never go as far as directly challenge USA.
Europe is behind technologically and natural resources wise and too fractured to challenge US. Also, compared to USA Europeans have lots of vacation, time off, social benefits that impact productivity. Europe is just too old and weak to challenge USA economically.
Japan is too small and constantly in deflationary crisis, Russia is a mess under Putin stuck in his dumb war with everyone who is able tried to flee it. Brain drain from Russia is huge, Russian economy is mostly export of raw materials: oil, gas, etc...
Who is left to challenge US dominance? One thing I agree on with you, it will never happen, at least not in our lifetime LOL :)
Most ocuntries should be able to somewhat manage self-sufficiently on a base level (I mean they've done so previously right). Is the fear genuinely of oh no the economy or is it a fear of oh no something is changing?
I think the fear is that 0.1% of every population might make a fraction less.
So no US equals no wars? Sorry, I don't buy that. Sure, they might be harder to fight without us supplying weapons, and a number of them might go away, but no way all of them would. It's a slippery slope to take the rantings of one man (president or not) and think they represent an entire population.
Not at all. There could be plenty still. But, that isn't the point here. However, the US in the mix also isn't stopping many wars it seems. War is part of the wealth generation machine. They are like controlled demolitions to drive economic growth.
I'm not implying we are blameless at all, but I think a lot of people like to gloss over the good things and lay 100% of the blame at our feet. The rest of the world got a head start on us, maybe after another 750 years we will be as refined as Europe.
I think we are definitely heading towards a decentralization and democratization of global power and that's going to be very painful. It is easiest to hit it economically first, because it fucks the lowest class first and upper last. Eventually it smooths things out and becomes a better way, but there is a lot of pain between now and then.
I honestly don't know if this will end up happening. It seems like a pretty half baked idea that some dudes came up with while stoned. It could also be one of the best things that have ever happened to the world economy. What is the end-result going to be? Time will tell!
What is kind of interesting though is, the lowest classes tend to "survive" by number, and are used to hard times. There is only so much lower the poor can go. The rich might not be so suited to large swings in their daily lives - just look at the complaints of influencers when they don't get their way.
At least for this article, it is half-baked, but I wish I was stoned! :D
The US does not only rule the world economically, technologically and militarily. It is also advanced in human rights. Right now, in many Middle Eastern countries, some Eastern European countries and some Asian countries, if you criticize their presidents, you are immediately thrown in jail. There is freedom of thought in the US and you can do this with respect.
Dependency on the US will continue.
I am not so sure about this. Yes, it is better than in some of the areas you mentioned, but Europe has a far higher level of freedom of thought in my opinion, without people being extreme in their thoughts. Though, the extremes are changing, aligning more with the polarised opinions.
Sounds like something with defined, limited supply is the safest harbour. I'll let people come to their own conclusions what that is.
Some of the stuff that will have tarrifs on it won't be shit, but will be interesting to see how general consumers suffer on "essential-adjacent" things.
I don't think the average US citizen understands how tariffs work and the impact it will have on them.
"intelligence" seems pretty scarce these days! :D
Haven't you heard? it is all artificial intelligence these days!
Coffee. I need coffee to survive. ☕️ Yeah, a bit is grown in Hawaii, but possibly only enough for me personally. 😅
America is now in the grips of an oligarchic kakistocracy run by a sociopath. What could possibly go wrong?
Just imagine what happens to innovation without coffee!
That is interesting, but many tried and did not end well for them (see Ghadafi and all the benefits that his country had before the war). That being said, we had bigger and stronger empires falling in the last 3000 years. Kings that the world could not get enough. In the end, everything will end. Given enough time, even the stars die, somebody used to say to me. Only the time is eternal.
Well, time isn't eternal, because time is measured by the light that stars emit. So when all the stars die, time is over, from a sense that we measure it using the closest star.
Time never existed in the first place.
It is a human construction.
There is a difference between one or two nations trying with millions of people, and 230 doing it with billions of people I think. Of course, the biggest issue is that the members of the RoW are just as bad at a smaller scale.
Maybe Trump will contribute to a good correction in the stock and cryptocurrency markets. I'm already tired of waiting for good prices :)
One day, it might correct all the way to zero :)
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I think that instead of the world building its economy around one country, there should be more focus on developing local and independent economies. Relying heavily on America really creates an imbalance.
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Trump is starting his second presidency. He is not a novice and he is not a novelty either, although he has created a lot of expectations.
Now and in the next 4 years it will be subjected to reality-real. As powerful and autocratic as he is, the challenges are strong, starting with his own country. The United States as a society is not doing well, they have been developing contradictions and conflicts within themselves for decades that have to do with demographic and ethno-cultural changes and social problems...
Obviously, they look at their interests first....but this time they have interests in Latam.
I think that the US will dominate the world's economy as long as USD continues to be the world's reserve currency and the US controls the international money transfers.
But some haven't.
I think your idea of the rest of the world making itself more independant from the U.S. would be good. It would is interesting to think how things would change in this country.
While the US's dominance over (communist country and state) combine is undeniable, the idea of a complete embargo is drastic and likely to have severe consequences for both the US and the rest of the world. This highlights valid concerns about US economic and political influence. However, the globalized world is interconnected. A sudden and complete decoupling would likely lead to economic instability, supply chain disruptions, and potentially even conflict.
Instead of an abrupt break, perhaps a gradual shift towards a more balanced and equitable global order is more feasible. This could involve diversifying trade partners, fostering regional economic blocs, and promoting sustainable development in emerging economies. Ultimately, the goal should be a world where all nations can thrive, not a zero-sum game where one dominates.
I think here, more than the issue of dependency is the issue of liquidity. The States lends liquidity to many developing or under developed nations, if that liquidity stops how will those nations work. Ofcourse, now we have decentralized ecosystems like bitcoin and Hive in place but are we mature enough to stick out nose into the big corporates and governments...
If it doesn't stop, they will forever remain economic slaves.
That is true too...