I spent a little time this morning talking with colleagues about investment diversity, mostly because I have none. Well, I do have a little, since I was granted some option in the company I work at and then swapped salary for some more in cost-saving measures due to Covid, as well as the compulsory contributions for retirement, which includes a bit more from my own business activities, which is also compulsory. On top of this is my house, which has some equity carried over from past places already in it, so it should have some value in the future too.
Of course, I have a little crypto squirreled away, but I am uncertain as to where that is going to go. Yes, "up" is the hope, but if looking long-term to the point of my technical retirement, it is hard to predict how "safe" that investment is. At the same time, with the disruption I expect is coming to the traditional economy and the tools within, what seems secure or predictable now, could lose that status very fast, especially if the centralized points of control start to lose ground against the decentralized.
When thinking about yield in terms of decades, it is hard to predict exactly what is going to come of things. For example, at the current rate of inflation drop on Hive, by about 2035 the rate will be a flat 1 percent of the supply. Taking out all the HBD conversion issues, that would put about 6-7 million into the pool each year, which is about a quarter of what it is now. If in 15 years from now there is demand coupled with decreased supply, the scarcity should push the token value up.
But, there are other factors involved in this case too, since the inflation rate on Hive is set by consensus, which means at some point there could be a decision made to drop the inflation rate lower again. If for example the inflation rate was halved today from ~8 to ~4, the reward pool tomorrow would be half of what it currently is
instead of nearly 900,000 HIVE in the pool, there would be 450,000 - what this would effectively do is make HIVE twice as hard to earn, much like a Bitcoin halving. This means that going forward, it would be twice as hard to earn stake from the platform, which might have a positive effect on market demand, considering that there is about 380 million HIVE in total, but only about 140 million of that is powered up. With it being twice as hard to earn, buying of the market becomes more attractive and the increased interest should push price, which will again draw the focus onto earning on the platform, since there will be high earning posts, even though the HIVE distributed will be half as much.
My point of mentioning this, is to demonstrate that things can change, especially in regards to governance decisions, like legislation. When conditions change, opportunity is both opened up, as well as lost and using the Hive example, the people who have stacked instead of sold over the years, would benefit from being early adopters and supporters, in much the same way as the early Bitcoin miners were ably to get thousands of Bitcoin for what was essentially free. If they held, they are multi-millionaires - if they undervalued Bitcoin and sold, they may have nothing today.
But these legislation changes happen in the "real world" too, and with the coming economic challenges that the traditional processes will face, legislation itself will be changed to try and bring stability. As we know, the way governments, banks and financial institutions work - much of this will cost the average person and create more disruption, as they will be using methodology for one sickness, to treat an "illness" that they do not recognize or understand. It is an, "If all you have is a hammer, everything looks like nail" - approach.
While there are a lot of confident investors out there, none can really predict what the world is going to look like in a decade or two from now, as the pressure of social unrest driven be economic inequality builds. As pieces of the system start to fail and state control is diluted, the institutions and corporations will try to take even more control, but they too will likely suffer from their limitations, which is their centralization and narrow focus. This won't stop them from trying though and many will overreach to the point that their bread and butter user bases start to find alternatives that exist outside of their reach.
None of this really solves my problem, which is to try and find my own approach that will support increased opportunity in the future. Sometimes I have wondered if my heavy rest on crypto is a flaw in my design, but in recent months I have become even more convinced that the future is going to require it. This is not based on the increasing prices of assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, it is on the observation of social behavior and the changes in many people's thinking, as they too have experienced the precarious nature of the current system, soon to be the legacy conditions.
With the uncertainty comes opportunity, but with that opportunity, we need to work out how we use it to create the kind of world we want. Many people want to be "rich", without thinking about the world and how it can change in the time between now and then, making what I think is a dangerous assumption that it will be similar to now. In some way, I feel like we are moving into the declining golden age of the mega rich and into the shift toward wealth distribution and community development. However, I do not see this as a transfer from one group to another, but rather a generation of new values that will drive new cultural behaviors.
While it isn't like to be a smooth transition, change is inevitable in all things, including everything we have known up until now, which is why making assumptions is so dangerous.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
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I remembered reading an article in which it said that Jeff Bezos, CEO and founder of Amazon, will give up his position as CEO of Amazon to devote himself to his foundations and other projects. There he talked about the help offered by these foundations and one wonders if the world would be different if all the billionaires in the world tried to create foundations to help others. I am looking forward to Hive's new highs. I'm betting on it. Regards
The billionaires are rich, the institutions richer. The problem is that most of the money in the world is in the hands of a few faceless, humanless corporations. It is quite a strange problem.
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If I've money in my wallet I could've vote for you.
Thanks for always posting create contents
You can always vote.
A very interesting idea to reduce the inflation rate HIVE. Regarding stability, I am not sure that it is not the same as in our world, I am afraid it may not exist even after death.
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I am not sure if it would be a good idea, as inflation can be very useful for distribution, if there is adequate demand.
Yeah, there is no security in this world, just mitigation of risk.
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My goal with this whole bull market is to maybe make enough profit that I can alleviate some of my current debt. I don't have ton, but if I can get that out of the way while not totally depleting my crypto bags, it will put me in a much better position should something happen with the traditional economy like many people think will be the case. Lambos and villas will always be a pipe dream for me even if I were to extend myself beyond my means. I have pretty much accepted that fact.
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Being debt free is something that few will be in the future, unlike their parents who were often able to accomplish it near retirement age.
Lambos and Villas are for people who don't have the imagination to do something useful. =)
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Very well said! Yes, my parents are doing very well due to their sacrifices earlier in life.
About that villas part...you know what they say about location. You can afford a villa in some places of the world with the current amount of crypto I imagine you got. How, and why, and would I ever get there...that's another question. But at some point, somebody was talking about the future smart contracts that allow you to purchase Real Estate on the other side of the world, a 3 sec transaction only...
What I actually wanted to say was...the future is not a fact until it becomes the past.
I would love to own a little piece of land. Then there would be the goal of getting there to visit it some day!
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Ah, there was this...there still is...this interesting initiative by some people in Scotland who are trying to protect some old trees by...selling 1 square meter of land along with a Lordship title online. I was part of funding the 2 for 1 lordship discounted deal of a couple of close friends of mine a month ago. I must ask them if I should call them My Lord and My Lady now.
That is awesome!
I actually see this (and have spoken about it I think) in a different way, or kind of. Imagine being able to invest into real estate projects around the world, three seconds at a time. A building company can crowdsource funding to get started, offering stake in the project and rather than people buying rental apartments which is a large single outlay, they can buy micro shares in buildings.
this would also work for example, with a group of small investors who can pool their money to invest together, like a group of friends. The simplicity over what it would take now is a amazing.
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Maybe that could first happen in non-dinosaur bureaucracies.
What might actually be interesting is, the bureaucracy may not be able to do much about it.
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Skol!
I mean...
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great comment.
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Sanaol
I guess everyone wants to be "rich" because they think it will magically solve all their problems and perhaps they covet the lifestyle of the "rich and famous" that they can see without having a clue about all the things that you can't see XD
Better distribution and community development are most definitely things I would love to see happening.
The majority of the early adopters almost always win. So I think that what we need more of is a vision for the future different than what our parents taught us.