Here we go again?
Perhaps.
Yet I think that this little bump of hype will see a retraction, even though there is a lot of room for it to move upward before that happens. People seem excited at the prospect of Bitcoin ETFs, so they are moving into Bitcoin hoping for a double-run up the ladder, which is why the majority of alts aren't following. However, that hype will likely die a bit and there will be some consolidation, until the real drive happens.
Having said that, it is not inconceivable that this first push starts touching ATHs also, as quite often, hitting the ATH is a trigger for a selloff, where it dumps for a bit until people realize that there is more to come. This allows those who didn't spend their profits on a Lambo, to buy in again and catch it on the way up. This also means that there is lower sell supply, thinning out the order books and setting up conditions for higher velocity, with lower capital injection.
At least, there are some similarities between where we are now, and the lead into the ATH runs. The difference is that in 2020, the low was at $3400, and at the start of this year it was just under $17000. That is a 250% difference, but that doesn't mean the blowoff ATH will be 2.5x the last - because it could be higher.
My very much layman and non-professional opinion is, that once BTC goes high and shakes all the "weak hands" free of their holdings, the real capitalists will do what they do best, capitalize. With low sell supply, they can drive the price up on low volume, increasing hype immensely, and then once everyone FOMOs in again or for the first time, dump fractions of their holdings for far more than they would have a short time ago.
If they play it right, rather than dumping hard, they can take advantage of the hype for longer and catch a few peaks and troughs near the top, and as it starts to lose energy, dump hard. And it will dump hard, because they will have a lot to dump, and those weak hands won't have much to buy with, blowing their small load too early, or waiting until it is below where they sold, so they don't make a loss.
It is unlikely that it is all up from here and there will be pullbacks, but it is looking and perhaps more importantly, feeling like there is some positivity in the markets. And with a 12% move on BTC in 24 hours, it is also interesting to note how the mainstream media who has all but forgotten about crypto (except for how it is going to be legislated), are quick to scramble aboard the bandwagon again.
Like clockwork.
Whilst crypto people are of the "it's inevitable" sentiment on the future of the industry, it is also inevitable how mainstream media reacts, as well as retail investors. Whilst there has been a couple years of accumulation possibility, it will be only now that people will start buying into the markets, because they will think that other people are buying in too. They will be right of course, but the goal really is to buy before other people buy, right?
But, while it was too expensive to buy Bitcoin at 17,000, there will be people buying at 35,000 instead. And, there will be people buying it at 68,000 as well, because they will speculate that it is going to 100,000 - and a 50% return in what would likely be a month of activity at that point (if it gets there), is nothing to complain about.
And then there are those who are taking a bigger risk (perhaps) and rather than looking for 100% on Bitcoin now, will buy some alts and look for 1000% instead. For instance, the last ATH on Bitcoin saw HIVE spike from a low of 11 cents to a high near $3.50 in about six months. That is a 3000% increase - 30x. If it were to do the same this time around, that would be a peak of about 9 dollars. Wouldn't be too bad!
I am not saying it will do that, but there is always the potential, and depending on how buyers and sellers act to affect supply, that peak could be even higher, for a very limited time. It might also be much, much lower. But what is a fair amount to predict for the value?
3 dollars? 5 dollars?
No one ever really knows what it is going to be, otherwise we'd all be rich, and being rich would be useless. However, to take advantage of high values, one has to own some of the resources. There is no point in prices going insane, for those who hold nothing.
But once it starts, it can move very quickly, so those without will miss out.
There is always next time, right?
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
Posted Using InLeo Alpha
Glad I was on board that train from $17K earlier this year. One of the reasons I was so aggressively selling off large chunks of my 30-year Magic the Gathering collection. I used to have faith in the company to preserve and build on the value of my older collectible cards, but Hasbro/Wizards of the Coast ruined that by appealing to shareholders and not the game players. If only I had purchased more significant % of BTC instead of more Splinterlands assets, I would be sitting on some nice gains. Alternatively though, I have filled out my wild and modern collections, so we'll see where that takes us over the next few years!
This is something I hope won't continue to happen on SPL.
I should have been buying something....
The whole purpose of the DAO is to ensure the actions of the company are guided by the players for the players. IMO, the DAO allows the players the ability to define the direction of the game/company. I also hope this is a successful innovation for decentralized gaming.
Likewise here. I think that we overshoot a little bit and some retracement is going to happen. But still, this is a good strength point to break the 30k$ resistance AND clear some shorts
It is going to be an interesting end to the year perhaps. Also, end to next year.
Let's whish the market does a fraction of what you are descriving, just a fraction would be quite nice!
Would be nice! 50% of the description enough?
of course 😉
Is there any perfect time to buy btc? That will be left for individual investors to decide. Ever the fake new plagued the social media, btc has gather momentum and surge upward and now that we heard the new of Sec approving ETF. I think we should have a high hope for the long runs of bullish market. Maybe I'm wrong though.
In the last bullish market, Btc moved ahead of ALT before others AlTcoin follows. I know for sure that btc gives direction for cryptocurrency.
Yes! When it is lower than what you will sell it at.
I agree with you. It could be a price we aren't willing to sell, no matter how dip.
Hahaha I always tell friends crypto prices are like a rollercoaster! Sit tight and enjoy the ride when the fun happens!
When the fun happens, most of them will cry they didn't pull the trigger.
If HIVE stays above $1 for a long time, then I'll be happy. After all, under my comment in your post there will be a figure of $0.50 and maybe even $1 :)
But you will have to spend more time reading comments from new people from different countries of the world.
I spend a lot of time reading comments already. I have been through a few bulls - hundreds of comments replied to a day! :D
I think the retracement has already started. The Btc ticker was on the market list website - people went beserk, the ticker label was taken off, people were now full of doubt, and so we go up and down. Like clockwork indeed.
Alts have hardly moved in comparison to the Btc move, they always seem to be delayed due to the dominance that moves over. A 30x would be very nice indeed.
If people think BTC will move first, they will try to get in on it and then switch back to their alts. Sometimes they are successful, sometimes the markets screw them over.
While predicting exact values is challenging, the key is to be part of the market and seize opportunities as they arise.
I definitely remember that time and I even took some profit although I didn't witness the $3.50 as I was in deep sleep that moment and then I got it at around 1$ maybe (as far as I remember).
Many might have slept through ;)
Yeah, I hope it won't happen again with me the next time. 😊
lets just hope the market is not a hype. A you said, many may try to buy and dump on the latecomers
Markets are always hype.
hahahaha, I must say, you would make a good mentor. Just giving out your perceived truth so that one can be ready for the unexpected.
While there is excitement over the potential of Bitcoin ETFs, other altcoins are not quite following suit. Doesn't sound like a happy sight. But there is some glimmer of hope. Anyway, hopefully everything will be positive again and we will see everything in good condition.
Alts will move when alts move. The trend tends to be they lag a bit, but there will still be opportunity.
A lot of the people I follow are posting about the BTC price increase. I get it, and it is expected. But all this good news and positivity is getting me hyped. I'm usually pessimistic, but this is really great to see. I agree that the increase is from the coming of ETFs, and that a correction and profit taking by some is possible that will lower it a bit. But after a long bear market, I'm just hoping the bull is starting.
Don't get too hyped - emotions lead to rash decisions. Some are good, some are not. People will take profits, but I think that we are looking into the future two years now - so there will be many waiting for the bigger run.
I've only joined Hive in April this year and and missed out on witnessing the $3.50 ATH, but I'm steadily accumulating and saving with the hope of a future surge. $9? That sounds really good 😁
Imagine how exciting Hive would be with that kind of value on the tokens.
It sure sounds exciting!
But please give me sufficient time to continue growing my stakes first 🙏😅
It depends. Sometimes, there is a next time but a lot of people trade on the hype. I don't really think most people act on it though. From what I see, it is up to each individual people. I will just wait until that BTC ETF gets approved first.
It might be worth buying drips consistently, if you think that the future price will be more than the current. That is the speculation, right? It always depends on the timeframe for return you are looking for though. If buying now, will it be worth more in two months? Maybe. What about in five years?
Large percentage of people will miss out on crypto. And based on what we have seen so far the centralized people building total new world out of decentralization, especially in EU where they are making so strong rules that decentralized coins would have hard time setting up even a swap. I feel that holding bitcoin is going to be crucial as other altcoins would get murdered when compliances kick in.
EU isn't too bad overall at the moment at least. I think it is going to be worse in the UK. What I wish the government would realize is, there is opportunity in having people do this well, as they can essentially draw value from other places, and spend it locally. It is like economic tourism.
Hmm
So is it advisable to invest in BTC now or there may still be a dip coming and buy then
I don't tell anyone how to invest :)
Investment is a nice option to have when the prices are low and once the news starts to get positive about how the market is behaving,it is interesting that chances are greater to win over 50/50 bets.
BTC is increasing in price, but I hope it will persist in doing so even more ; reaching $40k is a timely prediction as of me, because the growth rate looks impressive.
40K isn't that far away really. It doesn't take much, just some market attention and will.
I can't shake the feeling that Technical Analysis is just Astrology for men.
I agree. I like to look at the charts and predict patterns, but I haven't even looked into how the "experts" do it. I just like patterns. I like looking at the stars too.
"What Star Sign are you? Taurus or Ursa?"
:D
Always Taurus. Sometimes it just takes the markets a while to catch up.