If a role isn't needed, it changes - if a skillset isn't needed, there is not much you can do about it. However, that isn't generally the case. And generally, when they cut 20% of the staff, 60% of the group are quite safe - it is the bottom 40¤ that will have to worry.
And then things like "past performance" (or behavior) can have quite an impact. Vacations aren't generally the issue for those who are performing well.
And yeah for sure - far more complex to negotiate the environment now. I struggle daily!