A plumber got back to us on a quote this morning and the evaluation for doing the work is what I will describe as "ludicrous" with even our part-time project manager taken aback and said "eeww" at the estimate for what is literally a couple days work, if that. I should have been a plumber as if this is what they are charging normally, I would pay off the house in well under 6 months - after paying the taxes and having a long holiday abroad.
Thankfully, we have some other options available, but we are running out of time as the schedules have to align between workers and work is meant to start in about 3 weeks for the bathroom. Finding people on short notice increases the price - perhaps this is their cunning plan.
I told my wife that soon I will find a DIY on YouTube and give it a go. She isn't keen.
However, this isn't an uncommon experience and is indeed a part of the experience, of renovating an old home or dealing with tradespeople in general. For them, it is part of the game as they are able to take a swing with highball offer and test resistance levels, some people won't blink and just accept which works out great for them, others will negotiate down a little and feel like they are getting a discount and, some will walk. In this case, we are looking to walk, as we do have options and our resistance at this price to accept is very high.
In many ways, this is much like trading where there is support and resistance levels with some kind of space between where there is a willingness to accept or sell. If the plumber had come in at say, half the price, we would have accepted and the negotiation would have been over, the trade made. If we counter offered at a quarter of the price, he would have resisted and not sold, his support. And above the 50% we would have resisted and not bought. Depending on what side of the sale one is on, is going to determine where the resistance level is for each and in general, there is no upper limit for those selling. If we offered the plumber a million euros to do the job, he would have accepted it happily.
When it comes to the plumber, once the trade is made, money for work, there is no buyback or sellback for either side, he can't buy his work back, we can't sell it back to him - the deal is forever.
Bitcoin is on the climb now as we approach the halving and the volumes being traded are massive, but in general, these are trades back and forth, not necessarily people selling out of Bitcoin completely. What they are hoping to do is gather more satoshis for the future. But I wonder, based on what amount someone has today, what price would they wake up to and be happy to sell out of crypto forever?
If you were holding one Bitcoin, at what price would you happily walk away from crypto?
At what price would you be happy to sell half for?
The markets are testing the resistance levels of every person trading daily and while some will sell early, others will sell late. But, there is more complexity to it than just the buying and selling, as each individual also has other aspects of their life that comes into play, like their costs, their debts and the affects of FUD and FOMO on their feelings. It is a very complex system as a whole, as it brings the entire life situations of millions of individuals and ties them into one metric - price.
Much like the plumber needs to make a living and my wife and I have to make sure we can live - if we had a lot more resources behind us, we wouldn't mind paying a higher amount as much as when we have scarcity of resources and many things vying for its support. Without the scarcity constraints, we would be able to lower our resistance to higher price points and as a result, the cost of the plumber would increase, making it more expensive for everyone else who needs a plumber, just like buying into Bitcoin is 3x greater than about a year ago. It doesn't necessarily indicate demand of the mass though, it indicates the demand from those willing to pay higher amounts, with those with disposable income able to pay more than those without, me.
It is also why in investing, getting in early is such an important factor especially for those who do not have a great deal of extra, as at some price they are priced out of the market and will never have the opportunity again, at least to gain anything significant.
I came across this the other day and found it interesting as I didn't actually know this before.
Currently, there is about 18.3M Bitcoin in circulation with a potential ~20% of that lost forever through various reasons. The halving makes Bitcoin twice as hard to mine which slows supply, but the interesting thing for me is that the last Bitcoin is expected to be mined in twenty years from now, meaning that in the first ten years, 80% of the supply was printed and the last 20% will take 20 years to be released fully.
For some reference, at the current rate, HIVE inflation will reach a steady 0.95% a year in about 16 years from now and at that point, there will be around 700,000 million Hive in circulation (the numbers are very rough and there are other factors involved).
What this means is that there really isn't going to be a great deal of opportunity for people to own a large amount of Bitcoin in the future, but there is the opportunity for price to make even small amounts significant, considering that if it the 21M Bitcoin was distributed evenly now, each person on earth could have around about 0.003 Bitcoin - which is currently worth about 30 dollars US.
But, that last ~3M of that 21M is going to take a total of 20 years to come out of the mine, which is a very long time in trading terms. However, there is all the available supply that is currently being traded or held for the future and people who are having their resistance to sell tested daily, tempered and driven by their current life circumstances.
If I was to sell today, I could cover the plumber at his ludicrous price, but how long would it take me to get the same amount of Bitcoin if I wanted to buy back in later? Well, if price crashed heavily, not that long, but if it increases, it could be that I will never again hold as much as I do now, which isn't that much. But, this doesn't mean that it wouldn't be worth buying back into as an investment, it will just mean that the potential of future gains will be lower, as I would hold less.
But, this is the game, the support and resistance of us as individuals in a market place and it doesn't just apply to trading or plumbers - it applies to everything we spend our personal resources upon - whether it be a Ferrari or a loaf of bread. At what price point are you priced out of eating your favorite takeaway food? What is too much to pay for soap? Where are your support and resistance levels in regards to the time you spend on social media?
I am not much of a trader, but I find it interesting to explore my thoughts on these things and see what comes up, where I myself lay in the marketplace. What is my lower limit to sell HIVE at and at what upper price would I have sold everything? For me, Hive is different to Bitcoin as it comes with many more variables and use cases, including significant token earnings from staked participation - making it a more complex marketplace again, even though all of the same personal factors come into play as in any trade.
20 years from now when that last Bitcoin comes out of the mine - what do you think the price will be?
What will what you hold be worth at that point?
It might be an impossible question to answer, but perhaps it should still be considered when trading - I wonder how having a long-term expectation about the future price affects resistance levels to buy and sell today.
Potential with no upper ceiling or potential down the drain?
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
Very interesting question. I would choose a water drain.
https://twitter.com/Andruto2/status/1258706965104144387I wouldn't mind a water tank :)
I had quite the opposite experience with my plumber, very reasonable price for my new shower, problem is when you go for people at the top of the online rankings which I tend to, you do have to wait a couple of months, no use for you I guess!
That chart makes it look like a good time to buy BTC, just before the kink when inflation slows again!
I've actually got my out points planned in about 20 sells going up
My first is at £13K when I'm going to sell the princely sum of 0.01 BTC, Then another 0.01 at £18K.
Then more as it goes up higher, you can sort of tell I think it's going to go quite a lot higher from those small sells!
As to Hive if it ever goes to $5 and my account is worth > $150K I'm definitely selling a third to pay my mortgage off at that point.
I just randomly picked the out points for BTC
Yep, we don't have the luxury for some things, but we do for others. As the plumber is quoting on several pieces, we can take the short time frame project and have time to find others for the longer range - if needs be. We still have a few cards to call, friends of a tradie we have here at the moment.
I think I would have to do similar to reduce risks in the future. I am getting old! :D
The only way to trade - randomly :)
!ENGAGE 50
Testing if it works :)
Not yet it would seem!
As with everything in life it is a gamble in one way or another, one mans trash is another mans treasure.
How we perceive value, only sell once you are satisfied wishing to gain then walk away, decision is always personal based on circumstance.
@tipu curate
Upvoted 👌 (Mana: 0/2)
It is always personal of course, which makes it a challenge in a social setting. Most traders in any scenario don't have to think about the social consequences of their buys and sells - more complication here :)
Traders watching movements all day, hit and miss with no attachment, in it to hopefully amass "easy" wealth, definitely not for me.
I don't mind playing around there, but I couldn't do it daily - which is why I hold do much crap from back in the day :D
Much the same position, don't go daily also have some other bits and bobs laying around in waiting...
By the way, do you have heating in your basement? If not, it might be a good idea to look into infrared radiation heating. If you direct the lamps onto the walls and the floor, they stay comfortably warm and the temperature does not need to be as high because you won't be heating the air (less dust in the air is also a bonus). Also, because the walls and the floor will stay dry all the time, they will insulate better leading to lower power requirements. Not to mention the fact that the risk of moisture damage to the walls is lower. Also, infrared lamps are cheap to buy and install.
But if you want radiators, you might want to check out this product and calculate if it makes economic sense:
https://techcrunch.com/2018/03/08/qarnot-unveils-a-cryptocurrency-heater-for-your-home/
We are planning on floor heating and have a heating system that can handle it - but will have to likely take the floor out to do so - not what I wanted.... Will look into infrared and see what the deal is :)
Do you have a link for IR home heating in Finland that isn't for Saunas?
Here's one:
https://fi.trotec.com/tuotteet-ja-palvelut/koneet-homecomfort/laemmitys/infrapunalaemmitin/
Another:
https://www.heat4all.com/en/infraredheating-advantages
Thank you, I will see how it will go. The problem is that we supposedly shouldn't lay a surface of concrete sown on the existing one because of the potential for moisture from the ground coming up and getting trapped. but I don't get this since there is already concrete there, so why cant we add a couple extra cm. Even with the walls heated, the surface isn't nice and there are large undulations in the old boiler room
Them nasty plumbers...
I for instance have sold 1/3 of my Hive when it was at $0,8 with 2 intentions. Having lot of BTC before halving AND gaining an ability to buy much more HIVE back when BTC goes to at around 11k-13k (where i have similar sell targets as @revisesociology (which will lead to ALTS losing value - my prediction is HIVE between 2-3k satoshi which are my buy targets)...Since Im a small fish i don’t really need to fear sharing my strategy cuz I won’t be the one moving the market:DD But i have enough to gain 3 average monthly payments during this one swing.
Also you might be interested in this early retirement calculator :).
Yep, I would have done a little of the same, though not a third - but had zero liquid. :D I wouldn't have minded to get a bit through trading and taking some Hive off the hands of those who don't want it.
Good luck out there :)
Luckily i was prepared for this situation back from Steem days where i powered down 2/3. Liquid funds got ported onto Hive and then it finally happened + i could have sold Steem right after the fork for best price possible...I kinda nailed it this time:D
Best of luck to you too and let me know someday whatcha think bout that retirement calculator:)
Yep. =)
Retirement? What is that?
Thats a time when you can solely concentrate on your writing, wife, kids and other hobbies my friend:)
If you sold your Bitcoin just to buy a new toilet to take a deuce in, does that make it a shitcoin?
I think that is the dictionary definition.
Thanks for answering. Now I know.
I think we should compile a comprehensive vocabulary list for noobs to get up to speed with the lingo and blend in like the seasoned professionals we are.
Don't you have a bathroom to renovate? Making a list sounds like work. Work takes time. Who has time?
we all have time for the things we care about - and useless lists are my number one love.
I sure could use a useless list.
Been there... still there...
If you do end up attempting to lay drain lines, just remember... it's a 1/4 inch per foot slope back to the stack.
And, for personal experience, Diablo blades and a sawzall work quite well for cutting through cast iron pipe. But make sure you leave enough pipe left close to the stack to attach your PVC...
And closet bends are a pain to align properly.
And don't set the house on fire with the propane torch.
My house was built in 1928, much of the original piping was leaking when we moved in... the previous owners stuffed insulation into the kitchen ceiling and repainted everything to hide the known issue. 18 months later, the kitchen ceiling was dripping water from completely corroded 100 year old galvanized inlet pipes.
I think i will be too scared of leaks from the second floor to do the plumbing myself... if I had more resources, to cover my screwups, perhaps I would :)
I had fears about this, but figure - screw it! Take the risk.
The house I grew up in was built in 1926 and the wiring running through the ceiling was wrapped in cloth :D
Similar experience...
I was the bad kid in the family, and had the benefit of always being told to:
And so, I learned how to sweat copper pipes, fix cars, hammer nails, put shingles on a roof, run electrical wires, and put together PVC drains. It's still scary doing it myself though. And I don't have the time to do all that and also all the rest of the day-to-day tasks.
It always hurts my ethos when I need to pay someone to do something I know how to do, but don't have the time... I usually need to pretend I don't see all the things I would do differently.
I wish I had a been a bit older when my granddad was still kicking around, he was skilled in many things and was willing to show the ropes. Many of the skills that are valued these days aren't overly valuable skills - designed to make money - not create things.
For myself, it is interesting to see whether the price of Bitcoin will reach $14k. but then there is the fear that it goes to $500k when you buy up Tether.
:D
The last Bitcoin will be mined 120 years from now.
When dealing with tradespeople, the hourly rate for small jobs is often much higher than for large projects. Understandably. For example, the going rate for personal trainers is about €60 per hour here. However, that doesn't mean a personal trainer earns 22 x 7.5 x €60 = €9900 per month before taxes, pension contributions, and costs including insurance and rent paid to a gym. I doubt many personal trainers have full calendars.
We called in a plumber to fix one of the toilet seats in the house. It took him about half an hour to do plus travel time. Everything inside the tank had to be replaced. The bill was €159 including the parts. I couldn't have done it myself because it took even the plumber some effort to install the parts correctly. The job was done months ago and there has been no leakage since. Even a small leak can cost a lot of money over many months.
Why 120 years?
This plumber is looking for (work only) a bit over 8k for a couple days work. It is crazy considering the work isn't overly challenging and is basic pipe and drain installation for a bathroom. We have two more plumbers coming in over the next few days to make offers so we can see what is the average.
30 halvenings left. One halvening every four years.
That sounds insane. Are you sure that guy is not a Laestadian? We have a bathroom upstairs that is about 5-8 sq.m in floor area and has about a 25 sq.m total wall area. It's got a shower enclosed by walls, a toilet seat and the usual bathroom furniture. We asked one company for how much they'd charge for a total renovation of the space. A young fellow about 20 years of age came in. He talked about the company for a quarter of an hour after taking the measurements and calculated an offer. €23,000. I got off my chair in the kitchen right away and came close to telling him to GTFO right away.
We had the main bathroom including the floor of the sauna totally renovated in an apartment in 2008 and the total size of that job was about one and a half to twice that one we asked an offer for ten years later. The entire cost, materials and all was €6000. Accounting for an average rate of inflation of about 2-3%, €10,000 would've been a reasonable estimate for that bathroom+sauna job this year. Given that this job was half the size and complexity, the company tried to rip us off at a rate 2-3 times the going rate.
I checked and the company was owned by Laestadians. They'd been reported about on the media for ripping off pensioners.
It's a given that one should always ask several tradespeople for competing offers.
Baby needs new shoes..Baby needs new shoes..Baby needs new shoes..Baby needs new shoes..Baby needs new shoes..Baby needs new shoes..Baby needs new shoes..Baby needs new shoes..Baby needs new shoes.. :D
That sounds about right to me. We had estimated 12 total for the upstairs bathroom, and we got one estimate in at 25+electricity - we said no. The variance between estimates is very large.
For example, we are heating the attics and the first estimate we got was 40K (1000€ a m2) - the next was 15K - the next 7K. Quite a difference - material costs are 34€ a m2.
You definitely have to invest some time in the negotiations and check out the companies. It can save you a ton of money and spare of you a world of pain.
My best guess is that I won't be here when the last bitcoin is mined. That'd make me damn near 90 and I don't have any expectations for that :) Mine is the necessarily short view...
I do know about old houses. I've done a couple, one that ended up on the National Register of Historic Places (after we sold. On purpose). Anyway, I utterly know the joy of starting one project and finding 3 more before the first can be finished.
I sucked up to the contractors. Mercilessly. I did work on their vehicles and in their houses and projects. I traded a built 327 cid Chev for a complete ceiling renovation. That guy was a friend and we BOTH thought we had stolen from the other :)
I will say that you can do it. Any of it. Seriously. It just takes you a hell of a lot longer than an expert.
I have a plummer friend here and now that you could seriously use. He charges fair rates and does first class work. He's semi retired, takes what he wants and leaves the rest. You'd like him...
90 is the new 70! :D
My brother would have thought you got a raw deal :D
When it comes to the plumbing and electricity, it has to be with receipts here in case something happens and, for the legal considerations if we ever want to sell it. I am looking forward to learning a lot more of what I can do however - including a little bit of simple electrical work.
This sounds like our carpenter :)
Here, and in Washington where I lived before I sucked up to the inspectors for pluming and electric. I'd leave everything open and MAKE SURE he inspected. I never had a problem with that... They were actually pretty good about it.
Finland is weird with these things in this respect in my opinion, although not as strange as in Australia (where I am from) where there is very little a person can do without having a trade license. At least that is what it was like back in the day.
One thing I do like in Finland is that in general, the people aren't incapable of doing a lot of the work themselves still and even the younger generations get their hands dirty.
Stay out of bitcoin until the dust settles, unless your nerves can take it.
I prefer to sleep good at night.
I have no nerves anymore - dead inside ;D
Even more reason to stay out of bitcoin, hive seems to be more stable.
Depends if you look at percentages of up and down. However, Hive at least gives the option to play with in many ways :)
That’s what I am getting at from a sanity point of view, just use it and only check the value as a side effect.
Better for your nerves than constantly watching bitcoins price action.
Yes agreed. Life is a beautiful lie. We should care for each and every person. Hateredvis not good for humanity. Let's spread love.
What is this in regards to?
This is what I feel we have to do irrespective of your post. Why don't you think so?
Ok, so you go around leaving random and disconnected comments on posts, regardless of their relevance.
The "Yes agreed" threw me as thinking you were agreeing with something in this particular post.
That is fine, I just thought you might have commented on the wrong post accidentally.
Good luck on your Hive journey, it sounds like you have what it takes to make this place awesome.
I am really sorry if I have commented the wrong way. Ok I misunderstood your blog so thought to leave a comment. I am a little slow in English. My bad. Sorry again.
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STOPOh... tell me about the plumbers.... they make more than dentists i am sure...
And i was thinking myself too, why the **** did i study, i should have become plumber...