The US mid-term elections are on tomorrow, which will likely cause more drama in the media and calls for fake this and that - when the largest fakery is the feigned outrage from people to feel like they are doing something meaningful with their lives. Politics (especially US) has become pure entertainment now, without even a thin veil of modesty covering it. Just look at how politicians behave on Twitter - from both sides of the aisle.
But, sometime back in the distant past of the late winter (Northern Hemisphere) or so, I marked this election as a potential turning point for the markets. It was after that @azircon mentioned how the equity market bears last around 9 months or so and a couple days ago @jphamer1 said:
You can usually sense it and at the minute feels like it's actually BOTTOMED OMG.
If we really have bottomed, this could be quite an interesting next six months, if it also coincides with the Fed reducing the interest rates again, which it has pushed up aggressively to reduce the inflation it has been part of causing over the last two years, through very shady monetary policy.
While inflation is unlikely to be reduced very fast as there is plenty of unchecked price gouging ongoing, a lot of people are expecting interest rates to keep rising in response. This means that many people are going to be moving their investment money away from stocks (as many are crashing to hell) and into safer term deposits to attract on interest, even though the interest rates aren't that high, they just seem it because they have been incredibly low for many years.
Once all that money is safely secured, it is time to reverse policy and give a chance for those who are liquid to pile in early, rapidly driving the values up again, making people slow on the trigger due to uncertainty, scramble late into the hype, giving near immediate returns on the early investments. Then, the early in can start laddering out again, profit averaging their gains, whilst the rest of the people are effectively driving up the prices for ever decreasing percentage gains.
And as we know, the crypto markets are tiny in comparison, but people expect massive profits, which means that they know that 5x isn't enough, so they are going to hold for 10x instead. This translates as enormous upthrust in the markets and very high volatility, which will also come crashing back to earth, soon after.
But we don't want to think about that.
We want the highs!
And, there will be plenty to be had as scarcity kicks in, because despite all the weak hands, the largest players in the game have surprisingly strong hands, so as the early sellers peter out fast, the market can keep driving upward, with the real holders not having to sell anywhere near as much in order to realize large gains, creating even more scarcity. At the top, they can unload and dump the market back down and while they will have a large technical loss on what they are still holding, they will also have plenty of liquids they can use to buyback greater volumes, maintain the same, or survive until the next run up, where they will rinse and repeat with another slice in their bags.
What goes up, must come down, and this also applies to inflation and interest rates. It doesn't really matter who wins the various elections, the next presidential election is in 2024 and the campaigning will start much earlier than that, meaning that no party in power wants to go in after years of pushing interest rates up and hurting the voters. They will want to do some triage and offer some incentives in time for the voting public to hopefully "forget" about the years of pain and mismanagement, much like how there are calls for a "Pandemic Amnesty" by those who caused so much of this pain in the world over the last few years.
Just forgive and forget - we both said some things - I beat you black and blue, punished and ridiculed you... Just get over it.
Water under the bridge.
Now, I don't know if all our dreams will come true, or it is going to be the stuff of nightmares, but I can feel it too - something is coming. But hey, this is crypto, there is always something around the corner waiting for us, right? Sometimes though, that corner feels like a very wide curve that is doubling back on itself into a circle.
Remember this?
And this?
Just in case, are you ready?
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Average bear market lengths are about 7 months over the last 100 years. However that is backwards looking and has no predictive power. Whether we will have a Christmas rally or not is questionable.
I remembered wrong - I should have searched for the conversation :)
It is definitely questionable, but it feels like something is coming. I just am hoping it is upward volatility, instead of downward. :)
LOL. Keep the hope alive Taraz. As you know, I don't predict the market. It is fun to watch others predictions :)
All I have left is hope! :D
Make sure you are fully stocked on necessities, and have popcorn ready.
Already chatters that the election results will be delayed, national guards deployed to monitor election, regardless the outcome, get ready for finger pointing.
For crypto, it is always uncertain, one thing for sure is to not be a nocoiner.
US politics and the voting system are a mess. It is like one of those little countries you see on the news with people screaming and rioting on the streets - and you are glad you don't live there :D
Gotta hold something to be right or wrong :)
I read stuff like this with this expression 🤨 because I jumped into crypto to see what could be done different, repetitions off the same nonsense with different people on top of boring at best and can go get stuffed at worst 😅
Thoroughly unsurprised by the screaming for an “amnesty”, seems like the first thing a lot of people want to do when they are so absolutely dead certain they’ve done the right thing and are then forced to realise that maybe it’s not the right thing is either double down harder or desperately try to gaslight people into believing it wasn’t really that bad and it was all with the best of intentions.
It is like the apocalypse movies and shows - they always end up building a government that resembles what they had earlier.
The amnesty conversation goes to show how irresponsible people are for their own positions.
Why are they that boring? Lack of imagination? Don’t want to freak people out with the fact that things could very definitely be done better/at least different?
I am cautiously optimistic about crypto prices. I think the selloff pressure looks to be abating, and the problems arising in the government fiat realm are becoming more apparent to more people. Unfortunately, price rises mean more scammers, spammers, and shallow hype-chasers.
I think some candidates are probably less bad than others, but they're all basically running for illegitimate offices where they will be paid with stolen money to act under usurped authority. The incentives are perverse regardless of their intentions.
Economically, we're in for a rough time. Regardless of how well central banks respond, they set the stage for increasing prices and a credit crunch through prior money supply inflation and artificially low interest rates to spur borrowing. The illusion of prosperity must shatter at some point, and the longer we wait, the worse it will be. And that would be the case even without COVID disruptions and massive "stimulus" programs adding even more chaos to the mix.
For sure. But, this also drives innovation and consolidation into stronger hands.
Lol, yes, I was just writing a little about this too. People might "feel rich" still to some degree - but reality is going to set in.
I'm not expecting any rally to have much staying power until the Fed pivots. CPI is key. When it goes down and unemployment goes up, the Fed will loosen and a more sustainable uptrend can be expected.
I suspect there will be some easing of interest rate increases early in the new year.
I agree. The rate hikes take effect with a delay. They can't go on forever without slowing down the US economy.
I get the feeling that they are trying to smash it out as fast as possible so they can then "triage" for the elections.
Who's they and what elections? What does "triage" mean?
the FED - US election in 2024 - triage - repair the pain they have caused.
Do you believe the Fed would try to influence the election result?
Market will go up when you least expect it.
Have we reached the maximum pain and capitulation yet? 🙃
Hope it stays flat for another year or two for a good DCA accumulation lol.
There is no limit on "how much pain is enough" :D
A year or two would be fine with me also.
I'm hoping for one last dip, so I can invest a bit more. Looks today as if we might be getting that.
You are correct that US politics is pure entertainment now. None of it is real. Unfortunately, legislators and other unelected agents of the government make laws and regulations that have seriously real effects on our lives. I'm hoping for a major shake up, because what the party in power today is doing scares the crap out of me, and it's been my party for almost 50 years.
There is always another dip! Though often, it is not at the time you want it! :)
These are the people who actually have the power, not the faces on the TV. I am not much of a political watcher, but the two-party system in the US is crazy. No wonder there is so much polarization.
boy am I ever happy today!!! I gotta go vote, but I don't want to drag myself away from watching bitcoin!
The polarization is deliberate. They've kept us on the edge of a knife - 50/50 - for years now.
I think I did say "one sharp drop" :D
Have fun out there :)
We have the same thing happening in my country. The election is near, and campaigning has started. The present government is already asking us to bring our cash and deposit them in the bank. Why? This is because they want to create a new currency.
And I see this to mean exactly what you said above, they are trying to use bait to make us forget the last ugly 8 years of the present President.
In my thoughts, I am often glad that there's crypto, as it stands I don't even have the cash to take to the bank. Crypto saves the day all the time. And my government's currency printing and manipulation have no power over those who have chosen a decentralized system/economy instead of their inflation-influenced currency.
In a lot of countries with shady economies manipulated by governments, crypto has been a huge helping hand. It is pretty good evidence of the possibility, which is part of the reason why so many "stable" governments want to destroy it.
Hope things go well for you in the coming months.
Do you believe that BTC will hit 60k again? I don't think that it is all about the FED and its interest rates. USD is weak for one month, but the cryptos made no headway. Many people at lost with the cryptos, I think there must be a trust on them to see the highs at first.
I think it will hit 60 again, partly because of the inflation. 60k 2 years ago is about 50K now. But, I don't think it takes trust - it will be as it always is - it will take greed.
I am not ready for a bull run- most of my hive is powered up.
That is good. It is safe there. :)
Often, those who have liquids, are those who sell their tokens before the actual run.
Man, hive's gonna look fly in 10$ outfit! <3
At that level - this place would be crazy.
Hehe thanks for sharing! It's interesting that I have been reading opposite views on this, some say markets have bottomed and some say the real crash has yet to come. Not sure who will be right, time will tell.
No one can really know for sure, despite who is "right" when it happens. It is speculation for a reason.
I have no idea whether or not we bottomed out or not. However, even though we are in a recession, I think a decent portion of it has been kind of priced in over the past few months. I think expectations are low so all that is required is for the whales to buy or sell.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
I think you are right and, I also think that the printing of all that cash over the last couple years is going to start having an effect. the high was 67K - what is that worth in buying power today? For it to reach ATH in purchasing power, it would probably need to get to 90 :D
In the summer of 2020, I realized that the markets will grow for a long time to come. Bitcoin was then around 7000. I then had ETH somewhere around 220-250$.
When I see a bull market again, I will tell you. From there we will count our 10x :)
Hopefully, you sold some of that eth 20x up and bought some back 75% down :)
Sold 50% at 3200-4200-3200. I transferred the rest to other coins, then transferred these coins to Hive.
Back in the summer I bought Hive at this price - https://hive.blog/hive-167922/@urri2020/june-15-2022-btc-usd-20000-eth-usd-1000-hive-usd-0-33
@tipu curate
Upvoted 👌 (Mana: 10/30) Liquid rewards.
Thanks :)
Excelente post hermano, increíble lo mucho que aprendo con este tipo de publicaciones
Thanks. Though I don't speak Spanish.
What I wanted to say is that: the post was incredible brother, incredible how much I learn with this type of publication
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